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February 13, 2012

Future Shock

Top 101 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Previous Rankings: 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007

As I was putting this list (exclusive to Baseball Prospectus 2012) together, two thoughts came over me that I thought were worth explaining before presenting the list.

1) Quite often, I go back and look at rankings from previous years. I look at what I was right about and, more importantly, what I was wrong about. "Wrong," however, is a very charged word when it comes to rankings. When I rank a player, whether it be in his club's farm system or as a Top 101 prospect, I approach it as if I were a major league club. What I'm sharing with you is what is known in the industry as a "pref list." That is, if I were an MLB club trading for one these players, this is the order i which I would try to acquire them. Every team maintains such a list for all 30 clubs; this is mine.

While it might look foolish in retrospect to have Franklin Morales ranked number 13 and Jordan Schafer at number 17 on my 2008 list (both ahead of Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen, among others), their rankings are only half wrong. They are wrong in the sense that Votto and McCutchen turned into stars, and that's upsetting to me. I do try to figure out why I put one ahead of the other, but at the same time, when that list was published, the majority of teams would have had a pref list closer to mine than to what actually happened. Rankings can look faulty as time passes, and it's important to always learn from them and try to improve, but they are also snapshots in time as much as predictive tools. That's not an excuse—I wish I had Votto and McCutchen higher that year—but more of an attempt to explain the thinking that goes into these.

2) Based on my emails and Twitter feed, I'm guessing that the comments thread and today's chat could quickly turn into hundreds of people asking the same question about three Cuban players, so let's cut that out off at the pass.
Q: Where would Yoenis Cespedes rank?
A: Number 20, ahead of Nolan Arenado.
Q: Where would Jorge Soler rank?
A: Number 38 (or number 39 if Cespedes was also getting ranked), ahead of Yasmani Grandal.
Q: Where would Gerardo Concepcion rank?
A: Concepcion has signed with the Cubs, so he is eligible for this list, but he's not a Top 101 prospect for me.

As always, I look forward to the comment thread below, and this afternoon's chat to discuss the list. That said, here is the 2012 Top 101 Prospects List:

2012 Top 101 Prospects
1. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers
5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
6. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles
7. Jesus Montero, C, Mariners
8. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles
9. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates
10. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
11. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks
12. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
13. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates
14. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners
15. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
16. Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays
17. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
18. Gary Brown, OF, Giants
19. Wil Myers, OF, Royals
20. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies
21. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks
22. Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds
23. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals
24. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds
25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets
26. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
27. Bubba Starling, OF, Royals
28. Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays
29. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees
30. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets
31. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals
32. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox
33. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins
34. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Rockies
35. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners
36. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
37. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks
38. Yasmani Grandal, C, Padres
39. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
40. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
41. Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves
42. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pirates
43. Josh Bell, OF, Pirates
44. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
45. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers
46. Brandon Jacobs, OF, Red Sox
47. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals
48. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Astros
49. George Springer, OF, Astros
50. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Athletics
51. Trevor May, RHP, Phillies
52. Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres
53. Robbie Erlin, LHP, Padres
54. Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays
55. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox
56. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates
57. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres
58. Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Padres
59. James Paxton, LHP, Mariners
60. A.J. Cole, RHP, Athletics
61. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
62. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
63. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees
64. Brad Peacock, RHP, Athletics
65. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays
66. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs
67. Jean Segura, SS, Angels
68. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays
69. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
70. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers
71. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
72. Sonny Gray, RHP, Athletics
73. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros
74. Joe Wieland, RHP, Padres
75. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
76. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates
77. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers
78. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres
79. Chad Bettis, RHP, Rockies
80. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins
81. Addison Reed, RHP, White Sox
82. John Lamb, LHP, Royals
83. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals
84. Jessie Biddle, LHP, Phillies
85. Jonathan Schoop, INF, Orioles
86. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Padres
87. Eddie Rosario, OF/2B, Twins
88. Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
89. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets
90. Joe Benson, OF, Twins
91. Matt Purke, LHP, Nationals
92. Wily Peralta, RHP, Brewers
93. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Blue Jays
94. Austin Hedges, C, Padres
95. Joe Ross, RHP, Padres
96. Derek Norris, C, Athletics
97. Tim Wheeler, OF, Rockies
98. Ryan Lavarnway, C, Red Sox
99. Mason Williams, OF, Yankees
100. Grant Green, OF, Athletics
101. Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Gerardo Concepcion

171 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

smallmanoncampus

How dare you rank my favorite team's prospect three spots lower than he should be/is on Keith Law/BA/that dude with a blogspot accounts?

In all seriousness, thanks for the great work KG

Feb 13, 2012 00:03 AM
rating: 15
 
hoopster3

Just trying to understand a bit of your underlying philosophy: If player A has 50% chance of generating 30 WARP over 10 seasons, and 50% of generating 0, and player B will definitely produce 20 WARP over 10 seasons, how would you rank them? In other words, to what extent do you value upside over certainty?

Feb 13, 2012 00:06 AM
rating: 2
 
carlbrownson

There is no such thing as player B, is how I would answer that question.

Feb 13, 2012 07:23 AM
rating: 1
 
hoopster3

I am well aware that Player B does not exist. Player A doesn't, either. I'm trying to construct a simplified situation, a "model", to understand a principle.

Feb 13, 2012 08:34 AM
rating: 1
 
carlbrownson

Yeah, and it's an interesting way to put the upside/dependability question. The simple math is that A has an expected utility of 15 WARP and B has an expected utility of 20, so take B; but that's probably too simple, in the same way that one six-win player is worth much, more more than six one-win players.

Someone more qualified that me probably has the math on it. I'd be interested to hear.

Feb 13, 2012 09:44 AM
rating: 0
 
Squirrelmetrix

Utility is ordinal. You mean expected value. You can't measure how much "utility" a team is getting out of a player but WARP, WAR, etc. do a good job of measuring value.

Feb 13, 2012 10:01 AM
rating: 0
 
Schere

It's a great topic. As a team assembles prospects, I've got to believe the high upside guys are the ones they should be targeting, assuming they can identify which path they're on before promoting them to the major leagues.

That should work out, because you only need so many guys out of your system...a 2WAR player isn't (of course) replacement level, but he's also not that hard to find.

Feb 13, 2012 13:18 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I don't have some exact formula for this kind of thing. It's loosely a combination of upside and chances of reaching it, but everything in between counts as well. I know this might upset some people, but it's very much a gut thing for me.

Feb 13, 2012 12:15 PM
 
Rob H.

Excellent! Looking forward to the chat.

First impression: where's Nick Franklin? Do guys like Jean Segura and Kolten Wong really project better?

Feb 13, 2012 00:07 AM
rating: 0
 
nolansdad

Franklin dropped off from #44 last season. Interested to hear if that is '11 injuries-related or long swing/defensive ? related.

Feb 13, 2012 08:07 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'm not convinced he's a shortstop. I'm not convinced he's that good a hitter. I like Franklin very much. I like a lot of players not on the Top 101 very much.

Feb 13, 2012 12:16 PM
 
rskelley9

Franklin looks a bit like Adam Kennedy. Wong on the other hand, looks like a .300 hitter with high on-base percentages, 15 HR power and an above-average glove. What separates Wong from the others is his low-risk profile. He isn't flashy, but he's a good bet to make it in the big leagues.

Feb 17, 2012 20:54 PM
rating: 0
 
deltarich

Think I counted 10 Padres on the list. Wow!

Feb 13, 2012 00:20 AM
rating: 3
 
Triphos

Is there anywhere to go for detailed write-ups on these guys? I'm new to following baseball with any seriousness, so beyond going "yay my team has some good prospects" I don't really know what to take away from this list.

Feb 13, 2012 00:41 AM
rating: 0
 
Joe D.

Triphos, Kevin's detailed write-ups on each of the Top 101 Prospects can be found in the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual, which is a spectacular value.

Other, less dead sexy write-ups on virtually all of these players can probably be found for free around the web.

Feb 13, 2012 01:30 AM
rating: 8
 
MichavdB

All of these guys are included in Kevin's write-up of each teams Top 11 Prospects as well.

Feb 13, 2012 07:14 AM
rating: 3
 
deltarich

Check the Future Shock section. Has detailed write-ups on teams Top 11 prospects. Need to subscribe to BP to read them. It's worth it

Feb 13, 2012 00:54 AM
rating: 9
 
NYYanks826

For anyone curious, here's how the prospect list breaks down by team. Padres lead the way with 10 prospects, while five different teams only have a single prospect. Every team has at least some representation.

AL EAST
Toronto - 5
Boston - 4
New York Yankees - 4
Baltimore - 3
Tampa - 2
TOTAL: 18

AL CENTRAL
Kansas City - 5
Minnesota - 3
Detroit - 2
Chicago - 1
Cleveland - 1
TOTAL: 12

AL WEST
Oakland - 7
Texas - 5
Seattle - 4
Los Angeles - 2
TOTAL: 18


NL EAST
Atlanta - 3
New York - 3
Washington - 3
Florida - 2
Philadelphia - 2
TOTAL: 13

NL CENTRAL
Pittsburgh - 6
St. Louis - 5
Chicago - 3
Houston - 3
Cincinnati - 2
Milwaukee - 1
TOTAL: 20

NL WEST
San Diego - 10
Colorado - 5
Arizona - 3
Los Angeles - 1
San Francisco - 1
TOTAL: 20

Feb 13, 2012 01:05 AM
rating: 23
 
T. Kiefer

Thanks for doing this list!

So are the 2015 Padres going to be the next 2013 Royals?

Feb 13, 2012 06:32 AM
rating: 4
 
rrvwmr

Seem more comparable to the Angels from a few years ago to me. They lack elite talent.

Feb 13, 2012 06:51 AM
rating: 1
 
deltarich

Eh, I think Liriano and Ross could develop into elite talent. I like both of them a lot. 10 guys on the top 101...if half of them just develop into quality starters/regulars that would be huge for a team like the Padres

Feb 13, 2012 07:07 AM
rating: 0
 
timber

The Royals had more quality prospects at the top of the list than the Padres do, so no, not really. There's a huge difference between 10 guys in the top 100 with four in the top 20 (I'm going by memory on what the Royals had last year, so if that's wrong I'm sorry, but it's close) and the Padres 10 guys in the top 100 with the highest at 38.

Feb 13, 2012 09:28 AM
rating: 2
 
tomterp

Worth noting that the Nats would have had six in the top 101 if not for dealing 3 for Gio Gonzalez.

Feb 13, 2012 11:16 AM
rating: 1
 
smallmanoncampus

Thanks to KG's top 101 list, we can determine that the best prospect lineup would be:
C: Travis D'Arnaud
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Cory Spangenberg
3B: Miguel Sano
SS: Jurickson Profar
OF:Bryce Harper
OF: Mike Trout
OF: Gary Brown
DH: Jesus Montero
with a rotation of Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Shelby Miller and Addison Reed as the closer

Feb 13, 2012 01:21 AM
rating: 23
 
jfranco77

Might as well stick Sano at 1B and Machado at 3B to get the best team out there - that's a good guess as to where they'll end up anyway.

Feb 13, 2012 04:52 AM
rating: 12
 
Richard Bergstrom

Adams was considered a four star prospect.

Feb 13, 2012 07:10 AM
rating: -3
 
Richard Bergstrom

How does that work anyway? Adams is a four star prospect but #69 on the list? Did he get screwed? (Bad pun intended)

Feb 13, 2012 07:13 AM
rating: -3
 
BillJohnson

Screwed? How? He's flanked by other four-star guys (Gose and Lee). Not everyone who makes this list is a five-star prospect. As Kevin has explained in times past, there aren't many of those.

Feb 13, 2012 08:33 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

I didn't realize that four star prospects also made the list. Thanks for the clarification.

Feb 13, 2012 08:36 AM
rating: -2
 
BillJohnson

Many people seem to think Carlos Martinez is destined for the pen because of his small size, in which case he'd presumably bump Reed as closer. He certainly has a closer's stuff.

Feb 13, 2012 08:34 AM
rating: 0
 
Jivas
(649)

Great stuff, KG.

I'm surprised I haven't seen any questions (here or Twitter) about Moore over Harper/Trout. While I understand that there *is* a such thing as a pitching prospect, short of a Strasburg-type monster it seems difficult to imagine any pitcher returning the value of a Harper or Trout if either approach their ceiling.

I'd love to hear you expand on that choice, to which I'm sure you gave a LOT of thought.

Feb 13, 2012 01:24 AM
rating: 4
 
kcheaden

Not KG, but I think Moore will be better than Strasburg. His stuff is just as good and his delivery is cleaner. I can easily see them both winning Cy Youngs in the future.

Feb 13, 2012 01:46 AM
rating: -1
 
ASBarrell

plus lefties with velo ... don't grow on trees ... Not Keven either (obviously)

Feb 13, 2012 05:04 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

You might be one of the few people who underrate (instead of overrate) Strasburg.

Feb 13, 2012 07:14 AM
rating: -1
 
kcheaden

Interesting as always. The only thing that surprised me was Brandon Jacobs at 48.

Apparently Bundy should have been the first pick in last year's draft. The 17 picks for the 2011 draft on the list:

Bundy
Cole
Bauer
Lindor
Rendon
Starling
Hultzen
Bradley
Bell
Springer
Norris
Spangenberg
Baez
Gray
Fernandez
Hedges
Ross

Another few guys will probably make it next year like Anderson, Swihart, Cron, and Guerrieri.

Feb 13, 2012 02:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

Kolten Wong (#88) was also a 2011 draftee.

Feb 13, 2012 08:27 AM
rating: 1
 
sgturner65

Wong should be on that list as well.

Feb 13, 2012 08:32 AM
rating: 0
 
buddaley

I have a question. This is apparently your approach:

"I approach it as if I were a major league club. What I'm sharing with you is what is known in the industry as a "pref list." That is, if I were an MLB club trading for one these players, this is the order i which I would try to acquire them. Every team maintains such a list for all 30 clubs; this is mine."

If that is the case, why do you have Matt Purke at #91 when he was not chosen until the 3rd round while many not on your list were picked in the 1st & 2nd rounds? I can certainly understand that your evaluation is different from that of 30 other teams, but what is it about Purke-or about those picked much higher-that leads you to a conclusion so different from theirs, especially since there is no pro data on him since the draft?

Feb 13, 2012 04:27 AM
rating: 0
 
Karl Barth

Where a player is drafted does not indicate his worth as a prospect. Some players are drafted sooner or later than their prospect value. Signability, character concerns, and differences in scouting all may enter the picture.

Kevin could expound on this much better, I'm sure.

I would recommend, though, that you consider listening to the Podcast. This is the sort of topic that Jason and Kevin talk about at some length.

Feb 13, 2012 04:38 AM
rating: 3
 
gdragon1977

I don't remember perfectly but wasn't there also concern that coming off a bad year Purke might go back to school and re-enter the draft (especially since I believe he was just an eligible sophomore)? He was drafted in the 3rd round, but he didn't get 3rd round money.

Feb 13, 2012 05:49 AM
rating: 2
 
rskelley9

Don't rely on draft slot. Purke has been slowed by injuries considerably, but when he's healthy he's drawn comps to Cole Hamels and Jeff Francis. He's a very talented young pitcher, with a more advanced repertoire and feel than most pitching prospects.

Sammy Solis should be on here though-- no doubt.

Feb 17, 2012 20:56 PM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

The one that surprised me was Luis Heredia. Given that he's 17, and scuffled in rookie ball, I'm somewhat surprised that he's rated so highly. I accept that he has a load of potential, but there are other similar young international players (Elier Hernandez, Ronald Guzman, Jeimer Candelario and so on) who also have huge potential. I wonder if you could explain why you chose to rank Heredia so highly, and not any of the others.

The other question I had would be how much of a difference it makes to Lavarnway's ranking if he can a) stick b) catch well enough to survive a couple of days a week or c) give up on catching altogether. Also interested in how you see his chances of sticking as of right now.

Feb 13, 2012 04:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Like I said in the chat, there are so few prospects with even a CHANCE at being a No. 1 starter. Heredia is one of them.

Feb 13, 2012 12:19 PM
 
jj0501

Thanks for taking on the Cespedes question up front. The other remaining obvious question : where would Yu Darvish
fit on this list if he were eligible ? Top 5 ?

Feb 13, 2012 04:44 AM
rating: 1
 
cjrhgarmon

Also, what about the 2012 draft class? Would any players currently in college/HS be on this list if eligible (e.g., Appel, Zunino)? Thanks.

Feb 13, 2012 05:42 AM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

For me the surprise in Jameson Taillon at 13. Seems a bit high, especially when he's ahead of guys like Walker and Arenado.

Feb 13, 2012 04:51 AM
rating: 0
 
jfranco77

I was looking at him too. As a fan of the Pirates I think I'd be ok with them trading Taillon for Walker.

Feb 13, 2012 04:55 AM
rating: 0
 
Peter7899

I think you need to wait till the Pirates unleash Taillon this year. They had a pretty tight one on him last year.

Feb 13, 2012 08:21 AM
rating: 0
 
KerryFam4

You seem a little higher on Randall Delgado than many other folks ranking prospects. Do you feel that command is an underrated attribute in the scouting community as opposed to more visually apparent skills like speed, movement, size, etc?

Feb 13, 2012 05:12 AM
rating: 0
 
harderj

Yes, Randall Delgado seems to be ranked all over the board.

Looking at the consolidated prospect rankings spreadsheet and adding these, KG has him about in the middle at #41.

Project Prospect has Delgado at #23, Dobber Baseball at #28, Deep Leagues at #39, Scout.com at #55, Top Prospect Alert at #56, and Keith Law at #98.

He is KG’s (and Talking Chop’s) #2 Atlanta prospect, and is ranked #3 in the system by Baseball America, John Sickels, and Top Prospect Alert.

Baseball America lists him as the #7 prospect in the Southern League. Deep Leagues lists him as the #20 pitching prospect.

So what’s the truth? As a player with his first Strat-O-Matic card, albeit not a very good one for contending teams, Delgado could merit drafting by prospecting and rebuilding teams…but should he?

Feb 13, 2012 07:01 AM
rating: 0
 
SidsGraphs

Your TX scouts must have had a bad 2011 seeing the drop in Martin Perez & Leonys Martin must have had eye opening disappointing July and Aug. You had him ranked 38th in your July top 50. I realize 17 drafted players are included in the top 100 but that is quite a drop from your July quote:
"Has played fewer than 40 games as a pro, but has already showcased plus hitting skills, gap power, good wheels, an outstanding approach, and good defense. Could play a big role in a pennant race come September."
From this quote I would think he would crack the top 100.

Feb 13, 2012 06:03 AM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

Keep in mind that the differences between prospects gets less and less the further down the list you go. Like just about all talent distributions you are looking at a bell curve - and this being a selection of the most promising baseball prospects in the world - the far end of a bell curve. So, a drop from 38 to 108 is probably much less than a drop from 8 to 38.

Feb 13, 2012 06:57 AM
rating: 3
 
Behemoth

I'd suggest signing bonus might be a better proxy for ability than draft position.

Feb 13, 2012 06:11 AM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

Higher signing bonuses are used to deter high schoolers away from college and away from football. While offering an above slot bonus is an indicator of "some desired ability", it doesn't mean a prospect is automatically better than someone who got less of a bonus.

Besides, if everyone followed their slot bonus, then signing bonus = draft position.

Feb 13, 2012 07:18 AM
rating: -3
 
Behemoth

I think it's a better proxy than draft order. I never said it was perfect.

Feb 13, 2012 07:36 AM
rating: 5
 
Brian Kopec

Bill Hamilton...SHSS? (Second-Half Seduction Syndrome)

Just surprised to see him this high.

Thanks for the list!

Feb 13, 2012 06:14 AM
rating: 1
 
grandslam28

The guy did have 103 stolen bases. Even as a pinch runner the guy might steal 40+ a year in the majors.

Feb 13, 2012 06:51 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

Or probably not, once he comes up against pitchers and catchers who have an ability to control the running game.

Feb 13, 2012 07:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Robotey

How many pinch runner can you name who've stolen 40 bases in a season in the last 40 years? Or 30 bases? 20? Pinch runner is only a position in September.

Feb 13, 2012 07:55 AM
rating: 1
 
accies

Even the "immortal" Herb Washington could muster just 29SB.

Feb 13, 2012 13:18 PM
rating: 1
 
SidsGraphs

Was it Wil Myers strong AFL that launched him up to 19 from your ranking of 50 on your midseason top 50?

Feb 13, 2012 06:27 AM
rating: 1
 
Kevin4prez
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

I am deeply disappointed with the back half of the Top 101 list- not because they aren’t the best choices, but because as I look at 2010’s list, there were FAR more duds (that’s being generous) than actual viable impact players. With the dearth of KG info these days (100 podcasts, daily reports from scout friends that tout 100s of diff prospects, basically throwing shit at the wall and knowing something will stick, and the “used to be semi-cute now completely mindless video game/hats/crazy sex questions that were entertaining when you did them in 2003) I feel like your growing fanbase is based on legit insight but still is yet to translate into you being any better than Blog Writer X in picking stars. A small cross-section look at 2010s haphazard 50-100 from just 20 months ago….
54- Aaron Crow (hated him then, wondering what you were smoking putting him at 54)
56- Tim Beckham (for someone who never liked him, you gave into the trendy “hes gonna breakout this year crap)
57- Scott Sizemore (just awful)
62- Michael Saunders (at this point, I would have asked the webmaster to take the list down)
66. Michael Inoa (No need to say anything, really)
67. Todd Frazier (My favorite 4th string backup 2nd baseman)
68. Tanner Scheppers (Aaron Crow with a diff name)
78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies (again you rank a player you spent years doubting…why?)

Feb 13, 2012 06:35 AM
rating: -51
 
grandslam28

Michael Inoa still has unreal talent, but has been hurt. He's still incredibly young and still could potentially be a monster.

Feb 13, 2012 06:47 AM
rating: 0
 
Robotey

sure--but how many years does he get to ride on that boat? Isn't that what we said about Fernando Martinez for the last however many years?

Feb 13, 2012 08:08 AM
rating: 1
 
Behemoth

James - how many impact players do you think have arrived in MLB since 2010? I'm going to give you a clue - it's significantly less than 101.

Feb 13, 2012 06:59 AM
rating: 9
 
R.A.Wagman

Take that one further - how many rookies have even played enough in the Majors so as to lose their prospect eligibility? Even Saunders, who crapped the bed, has been seen as an adjustment failure and not a scouting miss.

And BTW - Beckham has since broken out. He's no longer in the top 100, but last season he made the adjustments that were previously holding him back. He will not live up to his 1-1 history, but now looks like he could contribute to a winning team.

Feb 13, 2012 07:10 AM
rating: 1
 
John Carter

You should blame yourself for thinking anyone's prospect rankings will be as accurate you evidently expect them to be. Show us Blogger X and whoever else has consistently had more accurate rankings. Explain how KG could be more accurate.

Feb 13, 2012 07:03 AM
rating: 7
 
antonsirius

Crow jumped from Double-A to the majors and had a solid season in the bullpen, demonstrating that he has at least some ability to get major league hitters out. I'm baffled as to why you think that makes him a bad choice at #54. The rest of your examples are no better; you seem to be under the impression that all top 101 prospects should be can't miss prospects, and that looking back just one year can provide an accurate measure of a player's 'true' prospect status.

I'm also baffled as to whether your use of the word "dearth" was an attempt at sarcasm or not.

Feb 13, 2012 07:06 AM
rating: 14
 
hessshaun

"I feel like your growing fanbase is based on legit insight but still is yet to translate into you being any better than Blog Writer X in picking stars."

Please let me know when you find Blog Writer X that provides more information than Country Mouse.

Mr. Kennedy, if you feel like you can do a better job why don't you go for it? You seem to think you have a vast knowledge and great understanding of the job at hand.

Feb 13, 2012 07:16 AM
rating: 4
 
Richard Bergstrom

I hope he doesn't... mixing archaic words like "dearth" with abbreviations and half-hearted attempts to spell is unbearable.

Feb 13, 2012 07:22 AM
rating: -1
 
Behemoth

Especially given that dearth means the exact opposite of what he thinks it means.

Feb 13, 2012 08:01 AM
rating: 9
 
Doug Thorburn



Inconceivable!

Feb 13, 2012 23:09 PM
rating: 5
 
Dan W.

Just because one idiot used "dearth" wrong doesn't make it archaic.

Feb 13, 2012 08:14 AM
rating: 4
 
Richard Bergstrom
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I use dearth. I'm also a fan of deign. But in general, mixing in words that are not commonly used with text-to-text speak conveys arrogance more than intelligence.

Feb 13, 2012 08:35 AM
rating: -5
 
Dan W.

What does "text-to-text speak" mean? And whatever it means, I'm astonished that you're so willing to concede so easily that using the word "dearth" conveys anything more malign than a high school education.

Feb 13, 2012 12:05 PM
rating: 4
 
adrock

While I appreciate your deigning to reply, I believe your post contains a large dollop of personal preference and a dearth of substance (and if I were the type of person who could use a smiley without cringing, I would insert one here).

Feb 13, 2012 12:06 PM
rating: 9
 
Gotribe31

I am deeply dissapointed with your deep dissapointment. Where's your 2010 list that accurately predicted the future?

Feb 13, 2012 07:45 AM
rating: 9
 
CRP13

Usually I try to stay polite, but this is the dumbest comment I've read at Baseball Prospectus in a long time.

Feb 13, 2012 07:54 AM
rating: 12
 
NYYanks826

"Mr. Kevin4prez, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

Feb 13, 2012 09:16 AM
rating: 14
 
Doug Thorburn

In Kevin4prez's defense, he does appear to be well-prepared for that other category, "Burning dog poo and the human response."

Feb 13, 2012 23:18 PM
rating: 1
 
delatopia

Nice cherry picking.

It's easy to take shots. It's a hell of a lot harder to produce. So produce. Please, share with the world your infinite wisdom and prospect knowledge.

In addition, it's the bottom half of the list. Did you expect the success rate there to be the same as the top half? If so, that's idiotic. The top 20 are the blue chips, 20-50 are solid prospects, 50-100 are a lot more flyers and speculative stocks. The success rate there is supposed to be lower. If it's higher than the rest of the list, then that list has a lot bigger problems than the one you cite.

It sounds like your expectations are a wee bit out of whack.

Feb 13, 2012 09:44 AM
rating: 6
 
LindInMoskva

I have spent a fair amount of time studying the Baseball America's top 100 and while their are constant arguments about what a "good" outcome is, I have found that the BA list from positions 50-100 has about a 1 in 7 chance of landing a major league regular, star, or all star. It would be interesting to see BP come up with a way to quantify this, but there was a study out there (that now has a dead link) that tried to do this. Assuming a 1/7 chance is the norm, KG would need to have 7 "good" guys out of the bottom 50. It is too early to tell but I think that Trayvon Robinson, AJ Cole, Christian Yelich, Danny Espinosa, Yasmani Grandal, Dee Gordon, Tyler Skaggs, Jurickson Profar, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Harvey, Michael Choice, Kenley Jansen, Alex White, Danny Duffy, Brett Lawrie, Craig Kimbrel, Devin Mesoraco, Zack Wheeler, and Arodys Vizcaino are in the running.

If you have a league that drafts off the BA top 100 and you use KGs the only thing that really matters is if picking someone that KG ranks higher makes you more competitive. It would take some analysis to figure this out, but a cursory look shows that last year he ranked Kimbrel and Choice higher than BA, so picking them ahead of your competition would be beneficial.

Feb 13, 2012 10:06 AM
rating: 3
 
amazin_mess

The only thing is, guys like Crow and Sizemore have become major leaguers, hence they were pretty good prospects. Right?

Feb 13, 2012 06:47 AM
rating: 10
 
lemppi

Scott Sizemore showed some game when he was traded to Oakland last year. Not great...but very playable if he stays at that level or even improves a bit. Dave Dombrowski had a good year in making in-season moves to help his club....but he cut bait on Sizemore way too early and also had a horrific return in the deal when he did move him. Beane scalped him on that one.

Feb 13, 2012 07:10 AM
rating: 2
 
amazin_mess

Besides, it's not as if KG claims superiority in his rankings. I've yet to hear him proclaim "I am the king of all prospect gurus...all hail my genius!"

Feb 13, 2012 06:49 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Steven Goldman
BP staff

That only comes after the first six-pack.

Feb 13, 2012 07:11 AM
 
axis95

HA!

Feb 13, 2012 11:36 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I say that in the mirror every morning.

Feb 13, 2012 12:21 PM
 
devine

Evidently you start drinking early (if Goldman is to be believed).

Feb 13, 2012 14:16 PM
rating: 3
 
Nick Faleris

I think the inclusion and placement of Daniel Norris and Jose Fernandez might make you look very smart down the line. Applaud the effort, Kevin. Nice list.

Feb 13, 2012 06:55 AM
rating: 2
 
SidsGraphs

In 2012 will you go to Spring Training and the Arizona Fall League / instructs? I just can not understand why those are not absolute can't misses for you...at a minimum the AFL and instructs. I do understand budgets and time constraints that being said I know some of your followers make it all of them yearly. I could only assume you seeing more of these players in person and the fact by going you would/could gain even more contacts it can only help.

Feb 13, 2012 07:03 AM
rating: -2
 
Ian Miller

Playing in the AFL =/= elite prospect. There are PLENTY of non-prospects in the AFL -- pitchers especially, but position players as well. There are guys who are there to fill out a roster, who a team wants to keep close (vs. sending them to winter ball down South), or for any of a number of other reasons that those outside the front office are not privy to.

Feb 13, 2012 09:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Ian Miller

Goddammit, I just realize i completely misread your comment. Profuse apologies.

Feb 13, 2012 09:04 AM
rating: 3
 
johnorpheus

Bundy and Cole over Miller!!! Ah, I'm pulling my hair out! jk... Seriously, though, it's hard for me to imagine clubs wanting either in a trade over Miller, due to proximity to the majors, but I guess that's only part of the methodology, as KG would want them over Miller if he were running a club.

However, the ranking of Tavares makes up for it, lol. Great job overall!

Feb 13, 2012 07:04 AM
rating: 2
 
Brandon R. Warne

This is what we wait all offseason for, prospect nerds!

Feb 13, 2012 07:10 AM
rating: 3
 
deltarich

haha tell me about it. I was waiting eagerly until the list went up at Midnight last night. Then participated in the bonus chat KG held on twitter shortly after the list came out

Feb 13, 2012 07:13 AM
rating: 0
 
Kevin4prez
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Kevin and I were close in the early 2000's. I think hes hands down the mind of minds re: prospects. Im just playing devils advocate! I want KG to tell me why 50-100 is 30% younger than 2 years ago, really....the rest of my post, CONT
82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians (do you just ignore major shoulder surgery on young hurlers?)
85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks (you trash him within the blurb, yet still rank him!)
91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians (swing and a miss)
94. Gabriel Noriega (Iran Contra….ok, this is so bad its not even worth the joke)
98. Ethan Martin (again, why rank a player you’ve never liked?)
As far as 1-50 went, its hardly prophetic, as Tampa’s Matt Moore (41) and Alex Colome (42) aren’t differentiated, and 15-30 is basically an all out pipe-bomb (K Drabek (16), Brian Matusz (18) and ROY pick, Michael Taylor (20), Chris Friedrich (22, REALLY?!?!), Alcides Escobar 19, Derek Norris 28- and that was 50 spots higher than most everyone else- and uber-loser Donovan Tate at 29. Theres more, but I made my point….
At what point are you going stop waxing poetic about the Ronald Torreyes’ of the world on a daily basis and start looking at YOUR past performances. You’re far more Brandon Allen than Matt Moore. And you’re awfully snarky for someone who’s readers are as sharp as the you, the guy with all the outlets these days. Why is 2012’s list so young, and are you any more confident than you were in 2010??

Feb 13, 2012 07:12 AM
rating: -30
 
Behemoth

Also, since when was 2 years enough time to judge a prospect list? Remind me how long it took for Alex Gordon to put up a really good season. Alternatively, you could always stop trolling, or provide us with a link to your own, far superior list.

Feb 13, 2012 07:17 AM
rating: 7
 
smallmanoncampus

Oh, so you knew Kyle Drabek wasn't going to do well this year? I think KG can get you in contact with the Blue Jays so they can pay you a lot of money.

Feb 13, 2012 07:41 AM
rating: 5
 
CRP13

You are terrible.

Feb 13, 2012 07:56 AM
rating: 10
 
Kevin4prez
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Everyones reaction to my post only furthers my point.... although my 100% sarcasm has been mistaken for venom, I can say without any doubt I am one of KG's longest loyal followers, and just like to stir the pot a little becuz I love hearing KGs responses (which are always funny/smart/awesome).

Now, I didnt know Aaron Crow was so beloved. With a WHIP near 1.50 and as many blown saves as HOLDS, all hes proven is that hes not the complete dud he looked to be after arm trouble in 09-2010

Feb 13, 2012 07:21 AM
rating: -22
 
Behemoth

The problem you are having is that you are sounding like an obnoxious tool.

Feb 13, 2012 07:25 AM
rating: 25
 
Richard Bergstrom

Your 100% sarcasm is unclear because you can't spell worth a damn. You can't be taken seriously just "becuz" you say so.

Feb 13, 2012 07:27 AM
rating: 5
 
Imperialism32

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law

Feb 13, 2012 07:37 AM
rating: 2
 
lemppi

I'm not a fan of people "stirring the pot" for the sake of stirring the pot.

Feb 13, 2012 07:42 AM
rating: 9
 
CRP13

You seem to be backpedaling over the fact that your other posts above sounded A) hopelessly ignorant, B) overly aggressive, and C) hilariously condescending.

Don't throw your own complete failure to come across like a reasonable person into the faces of the people who pointed out how ridiculous you sound right now.

Feb 13, 2012 07:58 AM
rating: 6
 
dianagram

Breakdown by position
1B: 4
2B: 2 (can we have a new acronym ... "TINSTASBP" There is no such thing as a second base prospect?)
3B: 8
C: 10
INF: 1
LHP: 11
OF: 21
OF/2B: 1
RHP: 35
SS: 8

Feb 13, 2012 07:24 AM
rating: 6
 
Pat Folz

Too lazy to look it up myself, but that strikes me as a fairly enormous number of catchers. Is this year an outlier in that regard?

Feb 13, 2012 12:14 PM
rating: 0
 
greenfrog

How close were Jays prospects Hutchison, Nicolino and McGuire?

Feb 13, 2012 07:26 AM
rating: 2
 
deltarich

I think he said Hutchison/Nicolino were close to making the cut and that McGuire was not at all(during his twitter chat last night)

Feb 13, 2012 07:28 AM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

james - now we get it - but you should have let us into the joke from the first post! Entertaining stuff though!

Feb 13, 2012 07:31 AM
rating: 0
 
Kevin4prez
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I write, and KG has been my inspiration since i met him 12 years ago. Before it was cool to post 200 comments to him, like you Bohemoth. Type my name in yahoo and i have over 100 published articles, 90 of which quote Kevin. I had Moore at #1 to start last year and Profar at 3 by midseason. KG taught me well. But because KG is now the CONSENSUS prospect mind in the world, I think he will be happy to answer my question. Its a long winded question, but im trying to make a point. This year list seems 1000% stronger than 2010's list, and Im curious why the sea-change (regarding the dearth of 18/19 yr olds and just drafted players now taking up the back half of the list.) I only get snarky myself because everyone lobs softballs at KG these days. I am not claiming to be anywhere near his level. But with added attention brings harder questions. KG will have the answers, no need to answer for him!

Feb 13, 2012 07:37 AM
rating: -19
 
CRP13

If KG is your inspiration, maybe you should go back and re-read his work and observe that he doesn't insult people with sarcastic back-handed comments, he doesn't make snarky rearview-mirror judgments over articles that he wrote two years ago, and he doesn't get defensive when other people point out illogical points that they think he made.

Seriously dude, no class.

Feb 13, 2012 08:02 AM
rating: 5
 
Richard Bergstrom

Also, KG would be the first to say he is not the consensus view on the prospect, which is why he may ask others for feedback, looks at the lists of other publications, talks with Jason Parks, etc. yet still keeps his own opinion

Feb 13, 2012 08:33 AM
rating: 0
 
lipitorkid

Maybe James has low blood sugar today cause his comment in 2011: "Best. Column. Ever. Best. Prospector. Ever. To this day, it amazes me how on-point you are! You've inspired my "finally published" writings. You are the best ever! Youre old friend, James K." Shows a roller-coaster of appreciation.

Either that or James is really KG and is just driving comments and page views.

I'd still like to see a list where you look at KG's 1-10 vs. his 11-20 and his 21-30 over the years looking at how many 1) made it to the bigs 2)became top 100 players. How good is KG at evaluating tiers overall versus finding individual talent. It's so hard to judge him when you pick out single players, but how does he do over a long period of time at evaluating tiers of talent?

Feb 13, 2012 07:41 AM
rating: 2
 
Eddie Bajek

I'd love to see the Top 101 25 and under...

Feb 13, 2012 07:44 AM
rating: 25
 
sneezeplayer

Agreed!

Feb 13, 2012 09:46 AM
rating: 0
 
Kevin4prez
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"The problem you are having is that you are sounding like an obnoxious tool"

"Your 100% sarcasm is unclear because you can't spell worth a damn. You can't be taken seriously just "becuz" you say so."

So...despite using "shorthand" to save time I'm not serious (despite a Journalism degree from Syracuse), and I was intentionally trying to act like a tool to counteract everyones lovefest. "Kevin, do you like blue hats?" Really guys? Really? So I'll join in with a soft-toss: KG- How close are the following hurlers to becoming name prospects: Justin Nicolino, Cody Buckel, Asher Wojocowski, Zack Cox, Ronald Torreyes, Noel Arguelles, Rich Poythress, and DJ Mitchell?

Feb 13, 2012 07:50 AM
rating: -16
 
Behemoth

The question at the end is what people who are not obnoxious tools call a reasonable question, rather than a soft-toss. It isn't really necessary to be insulting to ask a difficult question.

Feb 13, 2012 08:04 AM
rating: 1
 
delatopia

It's Wojciechowski. Also, I don't think Zack Cox, Ronald Torreyes and Rich Poythress are going to cut it as hurlers.

Feb 13, 2012 09:52 AM
rating: 3
 
delatopia

I also know a TON of J-grads whom I wouldn't hire to keep the coffee pot filled. If a degree is your top credential, you have some work to do.

Feb 13, 2012 09:57 AM
rating: 7
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I didn't go to college.

Feb 13, 2012 12:24 PM
 
delatopia

Bully for you. I meant "credential" in a professional sense rather than an academic one.

Feb 13, 2012 13:27 PM
rating: 2
 
mblthd

Oh yeah, no, you did, but uhh, you know, you spent most of your time, uhh, occupying various, uhhh, administration buildings, uhh...

Feb 14, 2012 18:14 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

I doubt they teach "becuz" as shorthand in a journalism degree program. And if they do... I think u shud ask fer ur monies bak.

Feb 13, 2012 15:10 PM
rating: 2
 
Kevin4prez
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"Maybe James has low blood sugar today cause his comment in 2011: "Best. Column. Ever. Best. Prospector. Ever. To this day, it amazes me how on-point you are! You've inspired my "finally published" writings. You are the best ever! Youre old friend, James K." Shows a roller-coaster of appreciation."

I stand by what I said. Kevin is the best. Why would I be on this AM if I wasnt eagerly awaiting the Top 100? I didnt realize how intense I sounded. I apologize to the bodyguards....But if youre gonna seriously tell me that I can't dislike the non-sensical personal questions, and I have to lob eephus pitches at a former friend of mine on the day that kicks off 2012 Prospects (Kevins top 101 means that much to me), you both 1) disrespect freedom of press, and 2) will ultimately get sniped by KG asking him such God-awful questions, (ie- "Do you like Arcade Fire?) This isnt Bill Simmons. Its the premier prospect mind out there, period

Feb 13, 2012 08:02 AM
rating: -20
 
CRP13

Freedom of the press protects your right to say asinine things and it protects my right to call you a fool for saying them.

Feb 13, 2012 08:04 AM
rating: 8
 
amazin_mess

I think KG has a stalker on his hands.

Feb 13, 2012 08:10 AM
rating: 12
 
Richard Bergstrom

I consider him a two star stalker. He's a grinder and has a passion for the game but I don't think he has the tools to make it to The Show.

Feb 13, 2012 08:30 AM
rating: 24
 
CRP13

With 20-grade writing tools.

Feb 13, 2012 09:07 AM
rating: 14
 
Behemoth

Certainly possible, given the account name change.

Feb 13, 2012 08:33 AM
rating: 3
 
jfribley

So basically he's a Twins prospect-type stalker?

Feb 13, 2012 18:40 PM
rating: 0
 
Aaron/YYZ

An intriguing selection of Alfaro at 101. I'd be curious to know how much separation you see between him and Christian Bethancourt.

Feb 13, 2012 08:17 AM
rating: 1
 
AJ

Slightly upset #101 wasn't listed as "#TheLegend."

Feb 13, 2012 08:21 AM
rating: 6
 
Ian Miller

definitely shows lack of #want

Feb 13, 2012 09:07 AM
rating: 1
 
moehk21

#TheLegend is fine with his ranking (my good friend @Sp11ke on twitter assures me), but expects to be in the top 30 next year or he'll hit a homer with so much #want that it'll wind up next to KG in Dekalb.

Feb 13, 2012 17:07 PM
rating: 0
 
carp1626

KG, could you discuss the large discrepancy in Mike Montgomery's ranking across different publications this year. I usually put the most weight into your opinions and was wondering how one well respected publication can have him as the Royals top prospect and for you #6 and outside the top 101. Is this a case of scouts outside the Royals org being unimpressed or more of personal opinion, and if you were to poll ten scouts how many do you think would take Matt Purke over Mike Montgomery?

Feb 13, 2012 08:22 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Basically, he hasn't been crazy good since the first half of the 2010 season. That's a real concern for me.

Feb 13, 2012 12:25 PM
 
AJ

On the actual list however- i like it. I think you could make an argument for any ordering of Trout/Harper/Moore and I'd agree with it. Personally I'd go Trout/Harper/Moore, but that's just me.

I noticed a heavy representation of the 2011 draft class, which I would assume is indicative of how deep and talented that class was.

Overall I think the list is well balanced between projection/ceiling and floor players as well as those with pro ball experience and those who signed at the 2011 deadline/yet to make stateside debut.

Good deal, can't wait for the chat!

Feb 13, 2012 08:27 AM
rating: 0
 
earpbartman

Per Richard B's question above about Matt Adams being a 4-star guy and ending up at #69, so far KG has had 46 4-star guys and 32 5-star guys in his Top 11 lists (still have 7 teams to go). That puts Adams in the upper tier of KG's 4-star prospects.

*Looks like this isn't going to post directly to that comment for some reason. Good bad pun by the way*

Feb 13, 2012 08:40 AM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

Thanks for the data followup

BillJohnson said that four star prospects make the Top 101 list which makes sense to me, but for some reason, didn't click in my mind at the time.

And I'm glad you liked the pun :)

Feb 13, 2012 09:05 AM
rating: -1
 
Kevin4prez
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You all made your point. I'm a douchebag, I get it. Lets get back to baseball. I have some real questions. 1- Tim Wheeler hit over 30 HRs had about 30 SBs and hit over .300. Why don't you/scouts like him? Isnt that a monster year for a guy drafted in 09? 2- Does Rendon's injuries make him fall or are you just not a fan? The couple lists Ive seen so far mostly have Rendon above all '11 DPs, inc Cole, Bauer and Bundy. Similarly, Matt Purke has had well documented arm troubles, yet his stats are downright unbelieveable. Whats his ceiling? 3- Besides Arenado, who benefited the most, attention-wise from the AFL? Lastly, I saw Jared Cosart pitch last year on the computer, and the announcers were comparing him to Steve Carlton!! Obviously a redic comp, but he did look pretty amazing? How good could he be?

Feb 13, 2012 08:50 AM
rating: -4
 
Richard Bergstrom

"After answering the five questions..."

"Three questions, sir, three!"

"Three questions..."

- Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Feb 13, 2012 09:08 AM
rating: -3
 
Richard Bergstrom

In all seriousness, my impression is that he looks like a tweener. A 23 year old is supposed to post great numbers at AA against kids fresh out of college so he didn't do anything unexpected. I may be wrong, but I've heard Tulsa is a great hitting environment. Even with all that, he still struck out a ton.

Also, he didn't steal 30 bases.

Feb 13, 2012 09:12 AM
rating: -1
 
CRP13

Kevin's answered most of these questions already in the podcast and in previous articles.

If I remember correctly, Rendon's concerns are injury-related and Cosart is still seen by many as a late-inning reliever (which pains me, as an Astros fan, but doesn't change the accuracy of the opinion).

Rendon's 30 SB's actually were 21 SB's and were accompanied with 12 CS. That doesn't scream anything that indicates a guy with elite baserunning tools. He struggled towards the end of the season, also, if I remember the podcast, Wheeler is a guy who has good-not-great tools across the board. A solid producer but not a likely superstar.

Feb 13, 2012 09:15 AM
rating: 1
 
dcarroll

Could you add links to previous years' lists, as you do with the team lists?

Feb 13, 2012 08:54 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Added :)

Feb 13, 2012 10:26 AM
 
dcarroll

Thanks!

Feb 13, 2012 10:29 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott44

Report that Cespedes has signed with the A's. Given that they don't appear to be ready to contend in that division over the next 3 years (his peak years), I'm not sure I get the signing.

Feb 13, 2012 09:35 AM
rating: -1
 
Hoff

I do! they're going to trade him for prospects if he pans out!
plus, 36 million is that big of a risk.

I have no idea about cespedes, but, certainly seems like a decent move.

Feb 13, 2012 09:50 AM
rating: 0
 
Infrancoeurgible

So where do the three stars begi... oh, never mind.

Feb 13, 2012 09:59 AM
rating: 8
 
karp62

It's interesting how people critisize Top (insert #) Lists to begin with. I would assume that KG does the top 101 list, not for himself, but because people need to see information put in ordered lists. I would suggest that the top 20 players on the list have a very good chance of being successful in MLB. That's something that one in five thousand prospects can boast.
The remaining (21-101) probably stand a 50/50 chance of ever having any meaningful MLB impact. At odds of 50/50 (at best), I think it's safe to say that those names could be interchaneable anywhere on the 21-101 ranks.
Kevin's quality of work lies in the Future Shock series that gives every fan the deepest and most researched look into their favorite organizations. You don't fall into quality like that without painstaking work. The Top 101 is more an excersize in dart throwing, provided to those who lead condensed and ordered lives. Want to learn about prospects?.........read Future Shock. Want something to argue about prospects around the water cooler?.......read the top 101.

On a side note, Kevin, did my favorite prospect make #116, or did he plummet to #120? I adore him.

Feb 13, 2012 11:03 AM
rating: 7
 
Zeushockey

I looked up the last few years top 10. Great track record
If you had to pick a few Players who are outside of the top 50, who could be top 15 next year, whos your target?

Feb 13, 2012 12:51 PM
rating: 2
 
rskelley9
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Great List but...

Still surprised that Matt Szczur gets no love-- a plus-plus runner with a premium defensive future in CF with polished hit skills who's put up nice numbers in the minors despite focusing on football at Villanova.

Also glad to see Syndergaard and Lavarnway on there. Very surprised that Fernandez and Purke made it while Solis gets left off as usual.

Check out baseballnewshound.com top hitting prospects and pitching prospects 2012, gotta say pretty well though out pieces with 20-80 grades and spreadsheet

http://baseballnewshound.com/?p=2241

http://baseballnewshound.com/?p=2151

Feb 13, 2012 14:37 PM
rating: -23
 
kcheaden

I remember KG being the first one ont he Szczur bandwagon early last season. He cooled on his a bit as he advanced up a level and his game was exposed. I think everyone is waiting see what sort of adjustments he makes.

Feb 13, 2012 15:03 PM
rating: 0
 
Infrancoeurgible

That site says Matt Szczur's hit tool is comparable to Jesus Montero's, and that he is the 9th best hitter in the minors.

From a bunch of places I've read, he's not even a consensus top 3 prospect in his own team's system.

Feb 14, 2012 00:09 AM
rating: -1
 
rskelley9

It doesn't, it says Szczur has the tools to hit .290-.300 in his peak years. That site says that Montero has the tools to hit .290-.300 in his peak years with enough power to maintain a .500 SLG.

Szczur doesn't strike out, he puts the ball in play and he gets on base. He wore down after donating bone marrow and playing D1 football at Villanova and establishing himself as one of the top wideout prospects in the game. Considering the circumstances, Szczur is remarkably advanced. A remarkably advanced player with plus-plus speed, great center field defensive tools and the bat to get on base 36% of the time and hit 10-15 homeruns a season is a top prospect. Period.

Feb 17, 2012 20:51 PM
rating: -1
 
Infrancoeurgible

"gotta say pretty well though out pieces with 20-80 grades and spreadsheet"

Sorry, you lose tons of credibility when you plug your own site under the auspices of being another person, Ryan.

You deserve every minus you get after that gem.

Feb 20, 2012 04:35 AM
rating: 0
 
mdthomp

Whats a realistic Comp for Oscar Taveras? I understand he is extremely difficult to project, but I honestly have no idea. I am extremely excited about this guy.

Feb 13, 2012 15:28 PM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

Would a left-handed version of Gary Sheffield be a reasonable perfect-world comparison? I was always mildly awed by the violence of Sheff's swing. Of course a 500-HR guy is a very perfect-world comp, and one should not expect Taveras to be anywhere near that good. Furthermore, Sheff had plate discipline that is not yet evident in Taveras. But one can always hope ...

Feb 14, 2012 08:06 AM
rating: 0
 
mdthomp

I like that comp, but yeah, won't have as much power.

Feb 15, 2012 20:39 PM
rating: 0
 
boards

Shocked (in a very good way) to see Gary Brown all the way up at #18. Most of the other lists had him anywhere from the upper 40's down to the 90's. Re-reading the Giants Future Shock writeup on him, I can see the why KG has him so high. A potential All-Star hitter with Gold Glove caliber defense in CF! I'll take two, please.

Feb 13, 2012 17:16 PM
rating: 0
 
joshilles

I remember when I first subscribed to BP a few years ago, I would read Kevin's Top 101 and most of the guys would be players I didn't know too much about, and it was (and still is) awesome. But now that I'm totally addicted to all things BP I think that I have read something on every single one of these guys at least once and in most cases multiple times. I'm not saying that this is a bad thing, but I do wonder if the opportunity is here for an expansion of sorts in this article. Most of us are subscribers because we love great information, and are willing to play for it. Also, most of us are very happy to see any and every article about prospects on this site, whether it be from Kevin or from Jason Parks. With that in mind, I was wondering if anyone else thinks it would be really cool to see a follow-up article from either Kevin or Jason (or Kevin and Jason) discussing the Top 102 - 201. Certainly I'm being greedy in just asking for this, but it seems like something that almost all of us would love. Kevin and Jason could even do it draft-style where they take turns picking players. That would be so awesome. Anyway, thanks KG for the top 101, excellent as always.

Feb 13, 2012 19:32 PM
rating: 3
 
Behemoth

I'd certainly welcome more systematic work on deeper prospects. The daily updates throughout the season are really useful, and Jason's content has given both a new perspective (which is good - I much prefer reading different informed views and coming to my own decisions based on what's said than some form of mushy groupthink) and a different focus, due to the unending pursuit of #want. Nonetheless, more stuff on things like breakout candidates, next year's draft, what happens to international prospects after they sign and so on, would be interesting. Note: Not trying to add further to Kevin's already heroic workload, but more just adding thoughts that BP may choose to act on in the future.

Feb 14, 2012 04:10 AM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Or maybe a weekly article titled "The Other 101" where Jason or Kevin give scouting reports and anecdotes on younger prospects that didn't crack the year's Top 101.

Feb 14, 2012 05:29 AM
rating: 0
 
Dave Holgado

Hey KG, great job with this as always. I apologize if this has been addressed in one of the comments above (didn't read 'em all), but I bought the iPad ebook version of BP2012 and the top 101 list in the book has Manny Machado at #6 and Dylan Bundy at #8, whereas now those two are swapped (which makes more sense since you had Bundy as #1 on your Orioles list). Was this an oversight in editing the list for the book, and the only one? Or not a mistake at all and does it merely reflect a tweak to your thinking on things since the book went to print (I'd imagine over a month ago)? If the latter, are there other changes? (haven't noticed any others yet)

Feb 14, 2012 21:11 PM
rating: 0
 
PACHOKA

Aoki, Mil. OF.... where does he fit?

Feb 16, 2012 13:26 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

New intel on Eddie Rosario? - who jumps from a two star prospect on the Twins (not making their top 11) to number 87 overall

Feb 16, 2012 19:57 PM
rating: -1
 
doublesteel

Aside from being different from a top-"100" list, I've always thought your top-101 list adds one extra prospect as a tip of the hat to Hanley Ramirez' rise from being ranked 100th on one of BP's old top 100 lists published prior to 2005. It's as if you want to prevent the next HanRam from having been your last pick.

Feb 26, 2012 11:16 AM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

Franklin Morales is suddenly looking better KG - 24-3 K to BB ratio as a starter for Boston

Jul 02, 2012 06:47 AM
rating: 0
 
sdw28880

Wow. You had Mike Montgomery nailed.

Jul 02, 2012 21:40 PM
rating: 0
 
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