Notice: Trying to get property 'display_name' of non-object in /var/www/html/wp-content/plugins/wordpress-seo/src/generators/schema/article.php on line 52
keyboard_arrow_uptop

Prospect #1: C Chris Knight
Background with Player: Video analysis.
Who: Catcher Chris Knight, the former top pick in the draft who many consider the best prospect in recent memory, has let his off-field issues and indiscretions affect his on-field focus. As a result, his overall production hasn’t lived up to his enormous ceiling. His raw tools are so electric that boredom has become an intrinsic byproduct; the developmental staff takes the brunt of Knight’s ennui, which usually forces the former prodigy to seek attention through histrionics. When he’s on point, there isn’t a prospect that can match his combination of tools and feel for the game.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Professor Jerry Hathaway, director of player development and de facto mentor to the future star, has been adamant that Chris Knight won’t graduate to the majors until he finishes what he started in the minors. Knight lacks the motivation to achieve for the reductive sake of achievement, so the extra pressure being applied to the promising backstop will either propel the prospect to the heights his tools suggest are possible, or the immature talent will withdraw from the forced responsibility, and instead choose to live in the frenzied moments of his own arrested development.

Prospect #2: SS Mitch Taylor
Background with Player: Video analysis; industry sources.
Who: Taylor was signed as a 15-year-old and tasked with following in Chris Knight’s footsteps as the next great prospect in the Pacific Tech system. He has moments of incandescent brilliance coupled with emotional doubts and insecurities so cavernous that they threaten to derail his genius. His tools are immature, but the flash of promise can be so bright that several talent evaluators I spoke with said Taylor’s ceiling could eclipse all others that came before him.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Despite owning an adult’s on-field skill set, Taylor is still very much a child off of it. He is struggling to assimilate into Pacific Tech’s pressure-cooker culture, finding his introverted and solemn personality to be at odds with the majority of his contemporaries. Because of his youth and his status coming into the organization, many find the whiz-kid prospect to be foreign and distant, a talent whose ego is out to kill all others with its quiet gaze and unassuming approach. In an almost unheralded move, Professor Hathaway elected to give Taylor his first professional assignment at that Laser level, the most distinguished assignment at Pacific Tech, putting him amongst the cream of the crop, including Chris Knight, the top prospect in the sport.

Prospect #3: RHP Addison Reed
Background with Player: My eyes; industry sources.
Who: Reed was a third-round selection in the 2010 draft. He’s a big-bodied reliever who made the improbable journey from Low-A to the majors, dominating in short-bursts at every stop along the way. Armed with a plus-plus fastball that can work in the mid- to upper-90s with some life and a slider that unleashes a world of two-plane hurt on opposing hitters, Reed missed 111 bats in only 78 innings in 2011, and allowed only 14 free passes. He is a legit closer candidate at the major-league level, with two plus-plus offerings and sharp command. As a reliever, Reed doesn’t have many weaknesses in his game.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Reed can get a little fastball-dependent, which doesn’t usually matter because his fastball is an explosive pitch with near-elite velocity that he can spot on either side of the plate. He could struggle if his command wavers, or if his slider flattens out a bit, which it did at times in 2011. If he loses the slider, even for a sequence, he becomes more of a one-dimensional arm, and major-league hitters can square up velocity when they know that’s all you have in the tank. To find sustainable success, Reed needs to keep that slider sharp and in sequence while maintaining his command. If that happens—and it should—there is very little to worry about in his immediate future. 

Prospect #4: LHP Lazlo Hollyfeld
Background with Player: Video analysis; industry sources.
Who: Once considered the best pitching prospect in the sport, Hollyfeld let the pressures of the game swallow him up, removing himself from the field and allowing his once off-the-chart skills to sour into solipsism. The reclusive southpaw bucked against convention and lost all of his prospect shine by refusing to speak with the media and building a wall (closet) between himself and the developmental staff. While he’s technically still a prospect, Hollyfeld lacks the youth and the sanity for a team to build around. However, the skills that once made him the most talked-about prospect in the game haven’t diminished, so any positive contribution on his part would be welcomed by the organization, albeit with a hesitant hand and a skeptical eye.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Hollyfeld is a complete wild card, capable of brilliance one moment and destructive reclusion the next. As with Chris Knight, the organization looks to control Hollyfeld’s influence on the rest of team, hoping the electricity of his skill set will rub off on the younger prospects and that the damaged social approach touches them not. As an older “prospect,” the projection and ceiling that once existed have eroded, with refined skills and a representational form giving scouts a clear picture of who Hollyfeld is and what he can contribute. That’s also the problem, as there are multiple layers to Lazlo; trying to identify and utilize them for professional gain will only result in the peeling and molting of the representational man, with yet another layer of complexity living underneath. You want him on your team, but the price you pay for such a luxury might be more than you are willing to spend.

Prospect #5: OF Kent
Background with Player: Video analysis.
Who: He’s an outfield prospect who has been in the system for several years; he started his career as a promising middle-of-the-diamond talent but later shifted to a corner, where his skills at the plate limit his overall value. Many in the organization question Kent’s roster spot on the Laser team, with whispers that his long-standing relationship with Professor Hathaway is the reason for the preferential assignment. On the field, Kent is sharp but always looking over his shoulder; his skills peaked early and he has since seen his name trend downward in the prospect queue. Off the field, Kent is known to be a tattletale and a troublemaker, taking the ascension of others personally, with a specific scorn toward Mitch Taylor and his relationship with Professor Hathaway.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Kent is going to play at the next level, but he isn’t a star and hasn’t accepted that reality yet. He walks to the field like a five-tool center fielder, but he is merely a man wearing the costume of his former self. With such an intense focus on the rise of the youth in the system, Kent’s priorities have turned from skill refinement to sabotage; he looks to discredit Taylor and Knight in the hopes of regaining the singular admiration of his mentor, Professor Hathaway. The zeal to halt his contemporaries’ progress has retarded and exhausted his own forward progress, making his role on the Laser team a casual formality based on his age and experience rather than a position of merit justified by his on-field production. 

Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now
You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
gnosker
2/09
If Hollyfeld flames out in the minors, he would make an excellent Baseball ProGUESTus. His projection system makes PECOTA look like a retarded Nostradamus. To wit, re: Mitch: "He's going to grow five inches within the next year." Hollyfeld would be hard to handle as a writer, but it would be interesting, like Hunter Thompson at Rolling Stone at his cocaine-fueled peak.
tlpacker
2/09
Going to go watch Real Genius and then come back and read this...surprised there's no Martin Kove in it. But at least it has Kilmer.
benharris
2/09
So much better than just leaving it blank.
faztradamus
2/09
If Dunn can bat north of the Mendoza line over a full season, Jerry Reinsdorf has promised to actually spend money—on a giant laser, located just above the press booth, that will target a 1-ton cauldron of popcorn kernels located in the bullpen.
jparks77
2/09
This is fantastic.
Lastblues
2/10
Didn't mean to flag this, just reading it on mofoing phone. Nothing could be more appropriate than sic-fi popcorn. Reminds me of the time my brother and me built an a.i. Orville Redenbocher, of course we had to destroy it after it killed the neighbor's dog. Just couldn't process human emotions....
jj0501
2/09
Wait a second, didn't I see Hollyfield zooming up the charts on the latest Top 500 Prospects list ? With a bullet.
Behemoth
2/09
I suspect a lack of #want here, to only be able to find one White Sox prospect worth mentioning. Admittedly, not as bad as the White Sox lack of #want for prospects though.
PBSteve
2/09
Imagine how they'll feel reading it.
Behemoth
2/09
They have no #want. They don't care.
Asinwreck
2/09
True. Jerry Reinsdorf eventually held Jerry Krause accountable for the Bulls' decline, but Kenny Williams still has a job. The farm system and major league team will continue to founder until they get leadership with a realistic approach to rebuilding.
crperry13
2/09
But honestly, if you're right, Jason's lack of #want to sort through the pile of refuse that is the White Sox farm system is understandable. I even feel a sort of commiseration that he felt the obligation to write something about the White Sox at all.
faztradamus
2/09
It's not a matter of "being able to find" more than one Sox prospect worth mentioning, it's a simple fact. I'm a Sox fan and can tell you that our farm system is about as sexy as a 2012 Jim Thome's defense at shortstop.
jparks77
2/09
Believe it or not, it actually takes more #want to write about Mitch Taylor than it does to write about Nestor Molina.
moonlightj
2/09
Kenny Williams should stop playing with himself and get this farm system in order. God is watching
faztradamus
2/09
Kove has always liked watching.
cboers
2/09
I'm sure this is funnier if you know the characters from Real Genius (I don't). Points for creativity, but as a Sox fan, I would rather read about Simon Castro, Nestor Molina, Trayce Thompson etc. even if they do suck!
jparks77
2/09
1.) You need to watch Real Genius. It's legit. 2). I did make an effort to rank and evaluate the top five prospects in the White Sox system, but I thought being a smart-ass was a better idea, so I scrapped it. Along with Reed, I had Molina, Thompson, Castro, and Petricka. I would be more than happy to answer any question re: these prospects. Outside of Reed, the system is very shaky. In fact, I'd say the current White Sox system is as bad as last year's Royals system was good. It's that extreme.
cboers
2/09
1.) I'm a big fan of you being a smart-ass
2.)I will try to watch Real Genius. It has Val Kilmer in it, so it's legitness is ten-folded.
3.)I hate the way the White Sox run their business.
faztradamus
2/09
I'll second #3.

I'd love to see a BP piece just ripping Reinsdorf (and Selig) to shreds.
adrock
2/09
This was cute. But seriously, what could go wrong with Nestor Molina?
hotstatrat
2/09
Yes, please, why are we so sure Nestor Molina is Sam Militello II and not Daniel Hudson II?
cboers
2/09
Jason C. - He's trying. Going to take a while to turn this around, and that's only if they commit the money and scouts necessary. Who knows what the plan is.
cooper7d7
2/09
I want to know who can hammer a six inch spike through a board with their penis - a girl has to have her standards!
yadenr
2/09
Last I heard, Lazlo was living in a van, claiming he could throw a football over mountains. You didn't mention his two-sport background.
jparks77
2/09
Good point. He always had a very promising arm. His long-toss program is extreme. Most teams wouldn't approve.
jalee121
2/09
The spirit of this series by Jason is to say "hey, let's chill on some of these guys." So since we already know the White Sox don't have a system, this should have been a one off series, something like "What could go right?" I admit, it would take serious #want for Jason to be optimistic, especially as something as soul crushing as the current chisox system.

ArthurCopeland
2/09
Knight is one of the ten top prospects in the field. Someday he hopes to be two of them.

As for Kent, he needs to up the voltage.

No comment on hammering a six-inch steel spike?
Oleoay
2/09
I'm a big Real Genius fan so I feel foolish that I didn't realize I was reading made up stuff until I got to the comment section. Jason gets a +1 for creativity and -1 for credibility since I can't usually tell when he's serious even if the player he's talking about actually exists.
jparks77
2/09
I take the actual evaluations very seriously, especially when I've seen the player in person and attach my name to the reports. That's what I'm all about.

I also write a bunch of ridiculous stuff, which I'm not always serious about. But when it comes to the evaluation of talent, I would argue against a -1 in the credibility department. My delivery isn't always on a straight-line, but the observations are always authentic and I believe them to be quite credible.
cfinberg
2/10
I also really enjoy it when you "get down" verbally.

It is highly credible that you believe your observations to be credible. Some would say INCREDIBLY credible. I think that's why those same some say you're a verifiable virtuoso. An extant prodigy? Nah, something similar, but with fewer syllables...

jparks77
2/10
Real Genius: Bringing us all together. I knew this would happen.
Oleoay
2/10
I'm as much a fan of satire and parody as anyone. In fact, I write a good chunk of satire and parody. It just gets hard for me to tell in the first sentence or paragraph whether you're being serious or whether you're making stuff up... and then whether you keep those same "writer's rules" in the next paragraph or not.

That's what I mean about credibility. Generally a writer establishes a framework with their audience within a particular article about what the "rules" and "tone" of the piece would be. Lighthearted? Serious? Satirical? For some reason, I can't feel confident in those rules and I feel like I'm hoodwinked for reading something seriously that was supposed to be funny (or completely made up) or vice versa. This comes across most in the BP "collaboration" pieces where it seems each author addresses their choice seriously and yours goes off-the-wall... but even within articles fully written by you, I have to take things with too many grains of salt. For example, I opened this expecting to read about prospects (as I have before). Turns out only one of them was real. By the time I got to the end, I was going to point out that Kent was missing a first name... until I saw the comments and realized the Real Genius connection. I heard the whole article as being a serious evaluation of prospects. So yeah, I felt conned which is a shame because I love Real Genius and if other writers bring in "obscure" references that I like, I usually catch it and, in addition, keep the "tone" going in the comments section.

As I've said before, I should like you more than I actually do and I keep trying to like you more. But I keep failing..
NYYanks826
2/10
Your comment might be one of the more arrogant and unnecessary comments I've read in a while on this site.

Yeah, Jason obviously didn't write about what could go wrong with the Sox real propsects (except for Addison Reed), but why can't he write an extremely creative/fictional piece without
being put through the ringer by you (someone who, to me, has come across as a poster who ALWAYS has something to say, whether or not people want to hear it).

If there's anyone on this site who should be ENCOURAGED to mix in creativity/fiction with his pieces, it's Jason. He is far and away one of the most unique and talented writers this site has seen. Don't take that away from him.
Oleoay
2/10
I am not trying to be arrogant and I think it was a necessary comment.

I rarely comment on what he writes. True, I'm the most frequent BP commentator on here but if you take a glance, I probably comment on about a quarter of the articles at most and there are times where I don't comment for weeks or months.

So why did I comment? Because I want to like Jason as much as other members of the BP audience does and I'm trying to provide feedback on why I am encountering difficulty. I want to engage in discussion on his articles but for some reason, it hasn't been my cup of tea so far which is why i rarely comment on his articles and because I have personally found frustrating because I really _want_ to like him. Thus, I thought the comment was necessary to try to provide some feedback on what I liked (notice how I did say I liked his creativity) and what I am struggling with.
hotstatrat
2/10
Hey, Richard, perhaps part of the problem is that you are trying too hard to like Jason's humor pieces - sort of the way the way a movie is usually disappointing when people or reviewers over-hype it and it doesn't match your expectations. Relax. Close your eyes and think back to this past World Series: Coming in relief for the Rangers: the Amish-friendly Jebediah Feldman. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15378)
Oleoay
2/11
Maybe I'm trying too hard. Shows I care, right?

Maybe I'll just blame you because I'm more familiar with the NL and you had me join an AL keeper league, so I'm trying to scrounge for any information I can ;)

Anyway, as a bit of a writer myself, I know an author can't please all the people all the time. Jason's the type who will write something someday that will really make me go "Wow! I'm now a fan!", so until then, I'll eagerly await.
marctacoma
2/09
Chris Knight's inability to deal with authority and hierarchy make his attrition risk higher than just about any prospect in the game, but I'd argue that his ceiling eclipses Taylor.
I think the Sox are anticipating some steady improvement in his eye and his footwork behind the plate, but a best case scenario would see Knight in sun-robes on top of a pyramid with a thousand naked women screaming and throwing little pickles at him.
It's that pyramid-topping, pickle-hurling upside that not many in the game have. No disrespect intended to either Reed or Taylor intended; I just see them amassing a writhing nude horde of like 100-120 women at the most.
jparks77
2/09
Because Taylor signed at such a young age, he will have more time in the developmental system and a better chance of reaching his ceiling. As we saw at the Tanning Invitational, Mitch can let his hair down and have some fun, so he's not too stiff. The girlfriend factor will also help him, although Jordan was a little socially awkward. If he can maintain his on-the-field prowess while gaining perspective off-the-field, I think he can be #1 in the system. I would rather hang out with Chris Knight, but you can build a team around Mitch Taylor.
marctacoma
2/09
How much of this is pure age-relative-to-leagueism? Sure, sure, he could charm beauty-school students, but I'm not sure holding one's own and nabbing an awkward girlfriend are the stuff of true greatness. It's necessary, but not sufficient.

He held his own despite being extraordinarily young for his league, but that team revolved around Knight because it had to. You think there's a lot of projection left and that he can grow into that role, and while I can't prove a negative, I'd tend to bet on a safe, productive but unremarkable career in industry.

Basically, you think his experience will spur him on to bigger and better things, whereas I worry they'll languish as a reservoir of humorous stories he'll tell his disbelieving colleagues at after-work pub crawls following full days trying to shave 1/10 of 1% in weight off the fuselage of passenger aircraft.
perhaps
2/09
This is awesome. I hope Kenny Williams keeps at it; imagine how much more awesome the White Sox prospect list would look once Reed gets promoted to the majors?
greensox
2/10
What is often lost in this prospect analysis is that getting promoted to the big leagues IS the idea.
onegameref
2/09
It's a great film with Kilmer at his comic best; before he went all serious don't you know. It would be nice if you could tell us if any of the remaining 4 you stated has an opportunity to help the big league club this year. Morel does not seem like an everyday third sacker unless he adds about 100 points to his slugging this year. Will this be the final last chance for Beckham? Please allow Flowers to get 400 or 500 plate appearances too. We need the sock more than we need AJ's grit.
jparks77
2/09
My Sox list:

#1: Reed
#2: Molina
#3: Castro
#4: Petricka
#5: Thompson

Molina: Command/control type that is good at manipulating his fastball and using his splitter to miss bats. Doesn't have a crazy ceiling because the fastball itself isn't anything special and the secondary offerings outside of the splitter are inconsistent and don't project well. I think Molina pitches at the major league level in 2012, but his ultimate role is still up in the air.

Castro: He has the largest hands I've ever seen in my entire life. He has a good fastball, with near plus velo and life, but the secondary stuff is inconsistent and the intensity of the arsenal comes and goes. I think he's a reliever in the end, and possibly a decent one, but not a special one.

Petricka: Lots of arm strength and a very good fastball, with plus (to plus-plus) velocity and natural weight. He gets good angle on his pitches and can throw strikes, but lacks a strong secondary punch. I think he's a reliever as well. Could be a decent one if the curve becomes an above-average offering.

Thompson: He has tools, so that separates him from the majority of the players in the system. Lots of swing and miss but lots of raw power. Not a star, but has the potential to reach the majors as a platoon crusher or solid-average regular if the contact improves without sacrificing too much of the big raw power.
kcheaden
2/09
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Gordon Beckham as well. As although he's not where near a young player what is your opinion of Adam Dunn for this year and the future?
jparks77
2/09
I don't think Gordon Beckham is as bad as his statistical record suggests. I think its all about adjustment, and now that Beckham has sufficiently failed, its time to adjust and overcome. I still see a solid-avg regular.

With Dunn, I see a bat speed issue. Until he can show the ability to get inside of fastballs, pitchers are going to continue to challenge him. When he triggers early to compensate, off-speed stuff will eat his lunch. He still has a good approach and he still has tremendous strength, but the longer and slower that swing gets, the easier it will be to get Adam Dunn out.
mort10
2/10
Hey saw Petricka start twice was 89-92 wasn't very impressive
jparks77
2/10
I've only seen him in short bursts, sitting 93-95 mph with good natural sink and a little arm side movement. Nothing crazy, but good enough velo (in bursts) and angle that it should play as he climbs.

How were his secondary offerings? I've seen the curve flash, but he struggled to stay on top of it and it turned slurvy.
BeplerP
2/09
OK. Would any of you people- either of the Jasons or any commente- go ahead, step up and take a whack- be able to provide a reasonable analysis of how this ball club went so bad so fast? Is it Reinsdorf's fixation on outdoing Scrooge McDuck? Is it extreme disfunctionality in the front office? Did Ozzie drive them into dementia? I would like to know. As far as any of this FUNNY (nudge, nudge) stuff goes, the White Sox just one day slid off Antarctica into the mouth of Monstro the Whale. That's it. And everybody is too scared of seeming uncool to call you on it. I say it's unprofessional, and I sday the hell with it.

Next time BP decides one of their authors can have a temper tantrum because the material he is asked to analyze is beneath him, let me know so I can arrange my discount with (you should excuse the expression) management in advance.
jparks77
2/09
This article wasn't a temper tantrum. I thought it was a funny way to suggest that the White Sox system was terrible. Most people seemed to enjoy it. Judging by your second paragraph, it seems you didn't. That's fine. You aren't going to like everything you read. Just because I didn't stick to the playbook doesn't mean I found the material to be beneath me. I appreciate the criticism, though. It's always a good time when people feel their subscription to a site should provide them not only access to protected content, but also unlimited and universal happiness and satisfaction in the product. I apologize that this article stung your fingers with such fervor that you just had to inform me of said unhappiness.

BeplerP
2/10
Jason- I apologize for "temper tantrum"- it was, well, intemperate. And despite the fact that my birthday is in the 1940's, I have long loved "Real Genius"- and a friend of mine had a bit part in it! Love the whole "Animal House/ Revenge of the Nerds Goes to Cal Tech" vibe. My point, if I had one, was that BP is in a better position to analyze what has gone so terribly wrong with the White Sox, and I thought that that was what you were going to deal with from your unique perspective, and this just wasn't that piece. Tant pis. I should loosen up a bit. Regards,
jparks77
2/10
Understood. I can see that point of view. Because of the feedback from this article, I'm seriously considering writing a full-length piece about the state of the White Sox system; not from the perspective of what could go wrong, but what has gone wrong, why it has gone wrong, and what the Sox can do to turn it around. I want to research the topic and speak with sources before going forward. Hopefully I can bring something together when I return from Spring Training.
hotstatrat
2/10
With all due respect to PeterBNYC - I have no beef with his expression of his opinion, I didn't see Jason's article as a tantrum - quite the opposite: it was a very sophisticated way of expressing the lack of worthy prospects in the White Sox's system.

I also don't understand Peter's logic for feeling entitled to a discount. Jason's "Prospects Will Break Your Heart" is a new feature - a welcome additional take on something that is continuously and thoroughly already provided for in BP by Kevin Goldstein. What's to refund, if it is a bonus to begin with?

What Jason provides more than any other BP writer or any other sports writer anywhere that I know of, is his keen humor. However, not everyone has the same sense of humor, but the nice thing about reading is that you can skip over what you don't want to read. There: problem solved.

jparks77
2/10
Very thoughtful comment.
plincoln
2/09
I'm just hoping there are no cameras on Kent when it's hot and he's hungry....
moehk21
2/10
Jason, I've said this so many times before, but man I LOVE YOU!!!!!!!!!!! Only Jason could get away with making essentially an entire post a satirical "Real Genius" joke, this might be one of your finest on par with a "Jason goes to a random game / takes the bus" stories or "The Verducci Chronicles". I don't care what White Sox fans say, you're the GOAT JP.
jparks77
2/10
Many thanks. White Sox fans have been handed a lot of negative press lately, so I don't blame them for having a strong opinion. It shows their passion and I respect that. I wish I could say the system was strong or that the infrastructure was sound. I don't believe either to be the case. With this article, I just wanted to create something interesting and spark discussion. It wasn't meant to insult fans of the team. I'll leave that to White Sox ownership to execute.
bpk5555
2/10
The incompetence of our management is definitely offensive. This article could never match it in that sense.

Just to throw in my two cents - I was kind of torn over the article. I read Baseball Prospectus because it's different and clever. I also respect the stones it took to write, and then post, the article. On those points, I wholeheartedly approve. The frustrating part is that we don't have our system summarized many times over the course of a year, and we look forward to the insight. This just reduces that already small number.

Ultimately, I think I approve. It was a good - and creative - way of expressing the frustration most of us rightfully feel.
mrenick
2/10
Real Genius happens to be one of my favorite movies from my youth. It just makes me happy to see it briefly brought into the limelight.
johnsamo
2/10
Too obscure a movie to reference IMO... I knew you were BSing, for reasons I wasn't sure, but I'm sure some people were searching their other propsect lists checking for these guys saying "what the hell?"
tnt9357
2/10
I hear that Kent may have some off the field issues that Knight and Taylor are using...*unusual* methods to curb.