CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
The Lineup Card: 11 Ti... (02/07)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/06)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/13)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/07)

February 7, 2012

Transaction Analysis

Guthrie Dealt for Hammel and Lindstrom

by R.J. Anderson

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.


IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquired RHPs Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom from the Rockies for RHP Jeremy Guthrie. [2/6]
Designated LHP Clay Rapada for assignment. [2/6]

Trading Guthrie for Hammel teeters on being a lateral move, and it still might be, depending on whether you feel Lindstrom is worth the additional money the Orioles will have to pay to their new pitchers.

Guthrie and Hammel are the keys to the deal. Comparing them head-to-head over the past three seasons, Guthrie has more innings (about 100), while Hammel owns the edge in strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.34 to 2.04) and adjusted-earned run average (100 to 98). Hammel did survive Coors Field, though Guthrie cut his teeth in the American League East.

Hammel, a 6-foot-6 righty, comes at batters with a heavy low-90s fastball and a rudimentary selection of secondary stuff. He will not become a free agent until after the 2013 season, so the Orioles gain a year of control while losing on the durability front. Without a 180-plus innings season to his name, it’s hard to peg Hammel to become the staff workhorse that Guthrie had been, but on a performance basis, the two could wind up with comparable Wins Above Replacement Player totals.

Buster Olney passed along a note on Twitter suggesting the O’s moved Guthrie after contentious contract talks. The validity of that proposed motive is unknown, but the peculiar nature of the Orioles return—seasoned major-leaguers, as opposed to prospects—makes it difficult to rule anything out. Dan Duquette has since said that no team was willing to deal prospects for Guthrie, and there are reports out there that Eric Young Jr.’s name came up during talks.

The other piece of the O’s return, Lindstrom, is a hard-thrower that bounced back after two disappointing seasons split between Florida and Houston. Lindstrom has a club option for the 2013 season, so perhaps the Orioles can deal him to a contender at the deadline, should he stay hearty and hale.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Signed RHP Shawn Camp to a one-year deal. [2/6]
Signed LHP Hong-Chih Kuo to a one-year deal. [2/6]

Designated C-R Chris Gimenez and OF-R Mike Wilson for assignment. [2/6]

You have to credit Camp for hanging on this long. Drafted in the 16th-round in 1997, Camp is a small righty with a high-80s sinker and platoon splits to back it up. Pitchers with that profile are common, making Camp’s survival after a rough start in the majors (230 2/3 innings and a 5.27 earned run average over his first four seasons) all the more puzzling, but he has turned things around since landing with the Jays in 2008 (257 2/3 innings and a 3.63 earned run average). Camp can frustrate when his groundballs bleed through the infield or his manager neglects to micromanage his appearances, but he has a place in a big-league bullpen so long as the sinker keeps working.

After spending most of last season dealing with anxiety issues, Kuo’s status for the 2012 season was up in the air. It appears he will try pitching, though, ostensibly representing a positive development in his mental health. Few left-handed relievers are better when Kuo is healthy, but his throwing elbow is a constant problem that has left him alternating between full and injury-shortened workloads over the past six seasons. Hope, for Kuo’s sake, if nothing else, that his 2012 season includes much success—both on and off the field.

TEXAS RANGERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Signed 1B/OF-R Conor Jackson and LHP Joe Beimel to minor-league deals. [2/6]

Not many players with Jackson’s career can boast his name value. Jackson has straddled the replacement level line since 2009, having tallied a career-high 2.1 Win Above Replacement Player in 2008. To write that Jackson fell off the cliff is being too kind, as his performances were never that great to begin with, and his next season in which he contributes more than one win will be the second best of his big-league career.

Jackson’s recent efforts have resulted in a .232/.312/.323 line, and the former first-round pick turns 30 in May. Opportunities are beginning to run out for Jackson to prove that he can put the bat on the ball well enough to post a respectable batting average and, thereby, tolerable lines. Shy of that, Jackson can keep Brad Hawpe company at the lunch table reserved for first basemen on their last legs.

Beimel will get a chance to be the left-handed reliever in the Rangers’ bullpen, although he bombed last season in Pittsburgh—a sad development given that Beimel looks as if he used to work alongside Long John Silver.

CHICAGO CUBS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Designated UTL-L Blake Dewitt for assignment. [2/6]
Claimed UT-L Adrian Cardenas off waivers from the Athletics. [2/6]

Dewitt rattled off a fine rookie season as a 22-year-old in 2008 and has seen his stock plummet since. Now 26, Dewitt could find himself in his third organization over the past 24 months. With a lefty bat and the chops to play the keystone and the hot corner, Dewitt fits the bill as a decent body to have on the bench. Add in the contact ability and the occasional walk, and you can almost overlook his lack of pop. There are, however, oddities in Dewitt’s game worthy of inspection.

Take Dewitt’s platoon splits. Throughout Dewitt’s four-year big-league career, his overall numbers versus lefties dwarf his numbers against righties. That tends to go in reverse, and it does not look like Dewitt is the rare exception. Rather, Dewitt’s big 2011 season (36 plate appearances, a .406/.472/.625 line) is buoying his career lefty-on-lefty violence. The larger sample comes against righties, and if you buy into putting more weight into the larger sample (and you should), then souring on Dewitt’s likelihood of being a worthwhile hitter is understandable, and that makes him just another fringe utility player.

Speaking of which, Cardenas is another left-handed hitter with experience all over the diamond. Sometimes that is a good thing; other times, not so much. The former first-round pick, who came to the A’s via the Joe Blanton trade, used to be a second baseman and still received some time at the position in 2011, but he spent most of the year in left field. Given Cardenas’s offensive profile (.290/.349/.387 in about 1,000 career Triple-A plate appearances), he needs to be able to play a passable second or third base to be worthy of a bench spot. The A’s deemed him less worthy of a 40-man roster spot than Eric Sogard and Adam Rosales, so Cubs fans should celebrate with caution.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquired RHP Jeremy Guthrie from the Orioles for RHPs Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. [2/6]

Fourteen starting pitchers have tallied at least 200 innings in each season since 2009, and Guthrie might be the most unassuming of the bunch*. Blame the Orioles. No, really, blame the Orioles. They staked Guthrie to a 30-48 record over the past three seasons despite more than half of his starts having been deemed quality outings. Add in the Orioles’ irrelevancy nationwide, and Guthrie’s lack of exposure makes sense.

Statistically, Guthrie combines pedestrian strikeout and groundball rates, which make him a worrisome fit in Coors Field, even if the league and division change will help. One thing that should not be as big of a concern is the supposed downward trend present in Guthrie’s control indicators. Factor out intentional walks (Guthrie set a career-high in 2011) and in hit batsman (he plunked 16 in 2010), and the results are less conductive to finding patterns:

Season

UBB/9

(UBB+HBP)/9

2009

2.66

3.06

2010

2.11

2.80

2011

2.64

3.03

Dan O’Dowd has acquired an assorted bunch to fight it out for rotation slots, and Guthrie is one of the few who appear ensured gigs. Having a proven and repeated 200-inning workhorse in the rotation is beneficial to any team, particularly when there are so many question marks. There is no need to overstate what Guthrie appears to be—a two or so win pitcher—but you can see why O’Dowd would trade Hammel’s extra year of control for more of a sure thing, particularly if he thinks his team has a chance to contend this year.

*Said bunch: Guthrie, Matt Cain, Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, James Shields, Justin Verlander, and Jered Weaver, and Randy Wolf.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Signed OF-L Rick Ankiel and 3B-L Mark Teahen to minor-league deals [2/5, 2/6]

The Nats inked a pair of falling stars this week to serve as camp bodies. Ankiel re-signs for his second tour of duty with Washington after inking a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason. A not-so-fun fact about Ankiel: he hit 25 home runs in 2008 and has gone yard just 26 times since. Teahen fell shy of 200 plate appearances for the first time in his big-league career last season, thanks in part to a strained oblique. Defensively, he isn’t fit for third base, and offensively he isn’t fit for first base or the corner outfield.


R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here

7 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
The Lineup Card: 11 Ti... (02/07)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/06)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/13)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/07)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, August 2...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 20, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Place Their Be...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani ...
Fantasy Article They Hold No Quarter: Second Basemen
The Lineup Card: Sevin Epitaphs for Bud Seli...
Moonshot: The Analytic Value of the Crack of...

MORE FROM FEBRUARY 7, 2012
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: What Could ...
The Lineup Card: 11 Times Small Sample Sizes...
Baseball ProGUESTus: Lose-Lose Situation: Re...
Premium Article Bizball: Salary Arbitration Picture Postcard...
Collateral Damage: The DL Kings: Chris Snell...
Painting the Black: The Two-Strike Hitting S...
The BP First Take: Tuesday, February 7

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2012-02-17 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Notable NRI: NL Centra...
2012-02-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Fukudome Lands on the ...
2012-02-14 - Premium Article Painting the Black: Examining the Beane Stoc...
2012-02-07 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Guthrie Dealt for Hamm...
2012-02-07 - Painting the Black: The Two-Strike Hitting S...
2012-02-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Jackson Settles for On...
2012-02-02 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Middle Reliever Mania
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2012-02-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Fukudome Lands on the ...
2012-02-14 - Transaction Analysis: More on Yoenis Cespede...
2012-02-13 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A's Sneak In, Grab Ces...
2012-02-07 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Guthrie Dealt for Hamm...
2012-02-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Jackson Settles for On...
2012-02-02 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Middle Reliever Mania
2012-01-27 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Cody Ross to Boston
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-03-29 - Transaction Analysis: Extending Lucroy