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December 22, 2011

Resident Fantasy Genius

I Cannot Tell a Lie

by Derek Carty

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Mock drafts represent a great source of joy for fantasy players, the first of which often symbolizes the start of preparations for a new season. However, for a fantasy baseball pundit, mock drafts present themselves as double-edged swords—especially when the results of the mock draft are to be made public. You see, for us pundits, we’ll usually be participating in these mock drafts with those who we’ll be playing in real expert and high-stakes leagues with. And even if one particular mock is low on experts you’re in line to play against for real, the results will be available for all to see.

The problem here is that, given our druthers, we don’t want to tip our hands on players we like during a draft that doesn’t count for anything. Of course, as fantasy pundits, it’s our responsibility to engage in these drafts to give readers a barometer for player value. We also have a responsibility to our readers to tell the truth about which players we like and don’t like—or at least be transparent about it if we’re not going to be completely truthful with our mock drafting. Three years ago, I actually gathered a group of fantasy pundits together to see how they felt about this dilemma, and some of the responses were quite interesting.

Last Tuesday, I participated in a mock draft for USA Today’s fantasy baseball magazine that will hit newsstands in a couple months (Rob McQuown also participated and showed you his team earlier this week). Below, you’ll find my team:

C

Miguel Olivo

R18

C

Wilson Ramos

R19

1B

Mark Teixeira

R2

2B

Dan Uggla

R3

SS

Rafael Furcal

R17

3B

Jose Bautista

R1

CI

Mark Reynolds

R10

MI

Jason Bartlett

R23

OF

Drew Stubbs

R4

OF

Brett Gardner

R5

OF

Cameron Maybin

R7

OF

Coco Crisp

R11

OF

Yoenis Cespedes

R20

DH

David Ortiz

R8

BN

Dayan Viciedo

R24

BN

Juan Pierre

R25

SP

Matt Cain

R6

SP

Josh Beckett

R9

SP

Justin Masterson

R14

SP

Bud Norris

R15

SP

Jonathon Niese

R21

SP

Erik Bedard

R22

RP

Jose Valverde

R12

RP

Carlos Marmol

R13

RP

Frank Francisco

R16

In the interest of full disclosure, I’ll tell you that this isn’t necessarily a team I would draft if this were a league that was going to count for something. One of the biggest reasons why we, as fantasy players, mock draft is to prepare for the season. We like to try out different strategies and different approaches to assembling a team, using the final result as a guideline as to the worthiness of the utilized approach. In this case, I went with a strategy that entailed selecting players who might contribute a lot in one or two categories as opposed to players who help across the board. I might not buy into Cameron Maybin as a seventh-round pick in a vacuum, but when using a strategy like this, the pick makes sense.

Another reason we engage in mock drafts is to see how everyone else values the players we really like. If I really liked Jose Bautista last year (I did), it wouldn’t have done me any good to mock draft him myself. It wouldn’t have provided me with any new information about his market value, since I’d have been the one setting the market. Sometimes, it makes sense to avoid the guys you like so you can get an idea of where everyone else likes them. (In case you’re thinking, “Hey, wouldn’t that create a lot of confusion if other people are avoiding the guys they really like too?” you’d be absolutely right.) Naturally, this can create an ethical dilemma for experts too, since abstaining from drafting the players you really like means, well, the readers don’t know who you really like.

 I bring this all up today, first, to be transparent and to put my most recent mock draft into perspective, but also so that you know the kind of thinking that a fantasy pundit puts into a public mock draft. There are definitely some pitfalls that we can fall into, even if only subconsciously, which is something you should keep in mind as you scope out the various mock draft results that get released leading up to the season. To get the best gauge of how experts value players, real drafts are the best way to go. The FSTA conducts the earliest non-keeper draft each year, taking place during their January conference each year. USA Today’s LABR takes place at the very beginning of March, and CardRunners held their draft early in March last year as well (no word yet on when it will happen this year). Most other leagues, like Tout Wars, hold their drafts closer to the start of the season, after a lot of your leagues have already drafted, but if you league waits until the last minute too, these late expert drafts are often the most useful since they have more information to work with (playing time battles, pitcher roles, etc.).  

Related Content:  Fantasy Drafts,  Mock Draft

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Andrew

Curious to know which pick you drafted from in the first round

Dec 22, 2011 02:55 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

4th pick

Dec 22, 2011 08:16 AM
 
Andrew

So I guess that begs the question - keeping with the theme of the article - were you taking that pick seriously? That is, do you view Bautista as a top-5 player?

Dec 22, 2011 09:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, I was and do, especially with Braun out of the mix. Miguel Cabrera was also on the board, which caused me some hesitation since I wasn't really drafting with anything in front me.

Dec 22, 2011 09:43 AM
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

The third-base eligibility helps him.

Dec 22, 2011 09:44 AM
 
lesmash

I'd also like confirmation if the scoring used in this system is standard 5 x 5, or if it is something else.

Dec 22, 2011 05:16 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

5x5, mixed, 15 teams

Dec 22, 2011 08:16 AM
 
bubba3m

Uggla in the 3rd round seems awfully early for a guy who hit .233 last year, HR's notwithstanding. Were MI's flying off the board, was this a case of "two-category draft" as you outline, or do you think his skill set justifies an ADP this high?

Dec 22, 2011 10:43 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yeah, I normally wouldn't have drafted him in the third round (maybe fourth) were it not for the strategy I was using, though I do think he's better than the .233 indicates, and we need to remember that it's a 15-team league, not a 12.

Dec 22, 2011 10:54 AM
 
LynchMob

I'd be interested to be in a "mock draft league" ... ie. a league of folks who do a weekly "mock draft" that gets entered into a scoring/standings system which tallies results at the end of the season ...

Dec 22, 2011 13:16 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I've never heard of that before, but it would be very interesting.

Dec 22, 2011 13:52 PM
 
frampton
(870)

I think the most interesting part of that would be to track the guys who change the most heading up to Opening Day. Would seem to give a good read as to who's likely to be the "flavor of the week" come late March/early April, and who the market might be undervaluing.

Dec 22, 2011 17:54 PM
rating: 0
 
Andrew

So what is your opinion of this kind of strategy?

I ask because I have a keeper league roster filled with extreme power and extreme speed guys.

Jan 02, 2012 08:32 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I'm not really one for gimmick strategies in real leagues, though I always give them a shot in mocks. I feel like you wind up passing over better value if you're restricting yourself to certain players. My rosters will sometimes wind up like this, but it's by default and not by some specific plan. I tend to value BA less than others do, so I find myself rostering Mark Reynolds types a lot.

In a keeper league, though, I wouldn't have any problem keeping extreme power and extreme speed guys if they double as the best overall players I have available to keep.

Jan 02, 2012 21:40 PM
 
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