CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/28)
<< Previous Column
The BP First Take: Mon... (11/28)
Next Column >>
The BP First Take: Wed... (11/30)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/29)

November 29, 2011

The BP First Take

Tuesday, November 29

by Daniel Rathman

After welcoming Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols to Miami earlier this offseason, the Marlins wooed C.J. Wilson on Monday. According to Wilson's agent, Bob Garber, the team "rolled out the red carpet" for his client, and the two sides came away with mutual interest. Unfortunately, one of the three aforementioned free agents is not like the others.

Reyes and Pujols are established superstars; Wilson is coming off of a tremendous 4.2 WARP season, but lacks a significant track record. Reyes and Pujols both have the appeal necessary to draw fans to the Marlins' new ballpark; Wilson—despite his 2.94 ERA last season and, in his agent's words, impressive charisma—is not going to sell nearly as many tickets. Reyes and Pujols would contend with LeBron James for attention on South Beach; Wilson would be an afterthought.

The Marlins' pursuit of Pujols seemed to be a combination of due diligence and showmanship from the start, and they won't win a bidding war with the Cardinals or any other suitor that may emerge. But Reyes is a more realistic possibility, and both he and Wilson are rumored to be seeking contracts in excess of $100 million. The difference is that Reyes is a means to the Marlins' desired end, while Wilson represents little more than an unnecessary risk.

Even if owner Jeffrey Loria is willing to squeeze two new nine-figure deals into his payroll, Wilson makes little sense for the Marlins. This winter's free-agent pitching crop is relatively weak, but a three-year deal for Mark Buehrle—or a shorter, cheaper one for a low-risk veteran—is a better fit for a team that is slowly building itself into an NL East contender.

The Marlins should be looking to add players who will peak as the team peaks, not decline when Miami needs them most. Exceptions to that rule can only be justified for superstars like Reyes or Pujols, because the new ballpark needs to be filled and the team needs to compete in the growing Miami sports market.

 Wilson, who recently turned 31, doesn't fit either of those criteria. It's unclear why the Marlins found the need to "roll out the red carpet" for him at all.  

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here

5 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (11/28)
<< Previous Column
The BP First Take: Mon... (11/28)
Next Column >>
The BP First Take: Wed... (11/30)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Daily League Strategy: "Prado of the Yankees...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, August 22
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Augu...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 22, 2014
Premium Article Raising Aces: Police and Thieves
Premium Article Painting the Black: A Marlins Fastball, A Tw...

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 29, 2011
Premium Article Fantasy Beat: Figuring Fielder's Future
Front Office Shuffle
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: How Do We Measure A...

MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN
2011-12-02 - The BP First Take: Friday, December 2
2011-12-01 - The BP First Take: Thursday, December 1
2011-11-30 - The BP First Take: Wednesday, November 30
2011-11-29 - The BP First Take: Tuesday, November 29
2011-11-28 - The BP First Take: Monday, November 28
2011-11-08 - BP Unfiltered: Now in the Newsletter, the BP...
2011-10-07 - Premium Article Prospectus Playoff Quickie: Enter Tatman
More...

MORE BP FIRST TAKE
2011-12-02 - The BP First Take: Friday, December 2
2011-12-01 - The BP First Take: Thursday, December 1
2011-11-30 - The BP First Take: Wednesday, November 30
2011-11-29 - The BP First Take: Tuesday, November 29
2011-11-28 - The BP First Take: Monday, November 28
More...