You like chickens? You like counting them before they hatch? Well welcome to Chicago, where such endeavors have turned a public relations boon into a potential nightmare.
Throughout much of September, the Cubs search for a new general manager following the dismissal of Jim Hendry was a story for what a non-story it was. The Cubs new owner, Tom Ricketts, promised a stealth search and certainly honored that by simply not talking to anyone. It forced many questions about Ricketts and the influence of team president Crane Kenney, but in retrospect, the club was simply waiting for their top target to become available. The Cubs reportedly covered their bases by talking to potential candidates such as Dan Evans and Josh Byrnes, but when the Red Sox gave Ricketts the gift of a September collapse, the Cubs pounced, getting a deal done by the end of the first round of the playoffs. Epstein surprised much of the industry by agreeing to terms with the Cubs, much of it because of what he'd be leaving: a franchise that has finished third in each of the last two years and seems to be reacting to it with an unprecedented scorched earth policy. “I was just surprised to see him want to go out like that,” said one insider.
This is where things get complicated, as while the Cubs may have a deal done with Epstein, that's not the only deal to be made. With one year remaining on his contract, Epstein can't move to the Midwest without the two teams working out a compensation arrangement. Basically, the Red Sox need to trade Epstein to the Cubs in order for him to become the team's next general manager.
So now, nearly a week since news of a deal became public, there's been no official press release, no press conference, no confirmation that it really was Theo at the Starbucks in Lincoln Park. Multiple reports have compensation talks between the two organizations at a standstill, but what is being missed is the reason why. This isn't over what the Red Sox get back in compensation for Theo going as much as it's over the organization getting compensated for their anger while getting the last word in.
Make no mistake, the Red Sox have the leverage here simply by holding the most desirable asset in the negotiation. That's business 101. Adding to the difficulty for the Cubs is that Ricketts has now wasted more than a week with the promise of a new savior of a general manager, yet in reality, he doesn't have him in the fold.
Theo is a wonderfully talented general manager, but the Red Sox lose little here. Ben Cherington, one of the brightest candidates for the role in all of baseball, is set to become the new general manager with the Red Sox, and the people and processes there are still in place. The Cubs are the team with no general manager and a World Series about to start, during which time they cannot announce a hiring. The Cubs are twisting in the wind here while the Red Sox have already all but moved on. Of course they still want Epstein as their general manager, but they're also resigned to the fact that it's just not in the cards, while knowing that the Cubs have put all of their eggs in this particular basket without looking at the bill.
Making things more difficult for the Cubs is who Ricketts is staring down across the virtual table. Red Sox team president Larry Luchino is, to put it kindly, an intense individual, and his clashes with Theo are generally seen in the industry as one of Epstein's primary reasons for bolting. With the Red Sox blowing a playoff slot, this negotiation is his World Series, and he's not exactly known for blinking.
This is going to get done. Compensation will get figured out, press conferences will take place, and Cubs fans will get excited about their future. I keep saying that, but with each day that we wait, my confidence wanes. Not on any extreme level but at least to the point where instead of acting like this is a sure thing, it simply seems highly probable. Negotiations last week were one thing; negotiations with 48 hours to go before the Cubs have to wait another week for an announcement? Something entirely different, especially with one source close to talks on Sunday classifying Boston requests as “ridiculous combinations.”
With both League Championship Series ending at six games, these talks suddenly gain a little more of the spotlight until Wednesday, which could end with even more confusion in a series of events that seem more choreographed by the Marx Brothers than experienced baseball executives.
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What are they going to do, bring Epstein back, demote Cherrington and have a terribly awkward season with all parties acting like nothing happened, especially between Lucchino and Epstein? Or if the awkwardness is too much to bear, are the Red Sox going to pay Epstein $8M (or whatever it is) to hang out on a beach for the next year?
There just seems to be too many bridges burned for the Red Sox to clearly have leverage.
But yes, the Red Sox have the option of simply paying Epstein's salary while he hangs out on a beach somewhere. Not ideal, but a few million to the Red Sox is almost nothing compared to the Cubs position if they can't get their superstar GM.
The Red Sox might not have all the leverage, but in the short term, they certainly have most of it.
Also, regardless of Red Sox riches, $8M is a lot to eat on a GM.
Regarding burned bridges, I agree it's highly unlikely but it's not practically impossible (in the sense that they literally have the contract) that they'd keep Epstein and have him just collect paychecks while other people run the show. It's also worth remembering that they had a similar awkward situation a few years ago, when Epstein quit for a few months then came back.
So let's say I retool a factory and have a piece of equipment that while now useless to me, can be very useful in another factory, so I put it on the market for sale.
Can I really try to charge a steep price for it if that asset will otherwise remain unused and take up valuable space in my factory (eg Epstein's salary that can be used elsewhere)?
I guess that's how I see it.
Ricketts: Yea, well, you won't keep him around so why don't you just make the deal?
Lucchino: Remember, we did this once before so feel free to call our bluff.
Ricketts: ----
Question, do you know if any part of the negotiations are the Red Sox attempting to get out from under that financial obligation either by passing it on to the Cubs or by forefitting it entirely?
This situation is like playing a high stakes poker game where your opponent already knows your whole cards.
Most of the criticism I'm reading about this current situation begins from a history the Cubs organization has of executive level ineptitude and failure (lots of rotten eggs in the broken basket). We all know the history. What I'm interested in is how the Cubs are overcooking THIS chicken.
We all know they are finished with each other. So for Luchino to now want some ridiculous sum for Epstein is stupid and petty. Luchino's name is at stake here. The Cubs are a big trading team. I wouldn't want their new owner to hate me forever.
Honest question... How?
I'm an outsider, so I don't know how these deals play out between teams. I know in business NDA's are fairly common on inter-company deals. Would it have been possible for the Cubs to hold the Red Sox to an NDA, prior to receiving permission to speak to Theo? I'm having a hard time imagining that would work.
whoever has the asset that the other group wants has the leverage. period.
if the cubs really want someone else, they can move on. but for now, 100% of the leverage lies with the red sox
It will be very hard for a company to ask for a premium price on an asset that it can no longer use. Sure, you can always be a hero and ask for the moon, but you run the risk of getting nothing and having to continue to pay for an asset that is now worthless and unusable to you.
The Cubs also run the risk of not getting what they want, and having to move to the next best alternative. Not ideal for them either.
So what you have, at least in my opinion, is a pretty even situation.
I get what the Red Sox are doing, and appreciate the tactic. It's called anchoring, which means you ask for the moon knowing that it can lead you to get more than you would expect if you had initially asked for something reasonable. It can also ruin negotiations by pissing off the other party into walking away. Its a bit of a gamble. Either way, it doesn't mean you are negotiating from a point of leverage.
(And Selig has said that major league players can't be traded, so no Castro for you)
Circumstantial Evidence for Wild Conspiracy Theory--Francona disappeared from the Fox broadcast booth right after the Epstein hire was 'leaked'.
(As a Tigers fan, I was relieved that the White Sox did not hire Tito.)
The Sox may still get something out of it, but it seems like a clear misstep to me.
For everyone insisting the Red Sox have 100 percent of the leverage, what is to stop the Cubs from leaving Bush in charge for a rebuilding year, and hiring Epstein in 2012-2013? It's not ideal, but it's essentially what they did this year. If the Cubs have decided to stay out of the Pujols/Fielder sweepstakes, then they can continue to pour money into the minor leagues, and make cosmetic changes to the major league club until everyone but Soriano's contract is off the books.
Again, not ideal, but workable.
Now the Cubs should play hardball: Simply sit back and nurse a few beers through the World Series while ostensibly continuing their search. That will stir the cauldron in Boston to a boil. If the Red Sox reduce their demands, reel in the catch; if not, move on within a week after the Series.
Let's face it: The egg on Cubs faces would ultimately wash off if a competent alternative were selected. Remember, too, that while Theo is attractive, he is also a prima donna. And, there are several metric-conscious assistant GMs who could do a comparable job. One, Rick Hahn, works for the cross-town White Sox. As the job would be a distinct promotion for him, so any complications should be minimal.
Yup. If I'm the Cubs, I quietly start looking at 1A) (Hahn) and others. Could the next steps below work?
- Get a tentative deal with someone else, with an expiration date of one week (3 days?).
- Tell the Red Sox they have that same time frame to make a deal.
The question becomes: Will Hahn (or whomever) accept that they might still not get the job after negotiating terms?
I don't see how extracting the most value for a prized asset is "bitter and petty."
Enjoy Prince Fielder Cubs fans, because you know that's coming. Typical Theo move.