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September 30, 2011

Regular-Season Awards

Handing out the Hardware

by Baseball Prospectus

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the major player awards  (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League

MVP

  1. Jose Bautista, 19,183 (14)
  2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 19, 140 (6)
  3. Curtis Granderson, 8, 42
  4. Justin Verlander, 6, 30
  5. Miguel Cabrera, 4, 22
  6. Ian Kinsler, 1, 7

Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander, 19, 93 (18)
  2. CC Sabathia, 19, 44 (1)
  3. Jered Weaver, 13, 25
  4. James Shields, 3, 5
  5. Dan Haren, 1, 1
  6. Felix Hernandez, 1, 1
  7. David Price, 1, 1
  8. C.J. Wilson, 1, 1

Rookie of the Year

  1. Michael Pineda, 16, 74 (13)
  2. Jeremy Hellickson, 8, 24 (3)
  3. Dustin Ackley, 10, 20
  4. Jemile Weeks, 4, 16 (2)
  5. Eric Hosmer, 6, 10
  6. Ivan Nova, 6, 8
  7. Mark Trumbo, 2, 6 (1)
  8. Desmond Jennings, 3, 5
  9. Brett Lawrie, 2, 4

Manager of the Year

  1. Joe Maddon, 15, 65 (11)
  2. Manny Acta, 10, 30 (3)
  3. Joe Girardi, 9, 23 (2)
  4. Jim Leyland, 9, 23
  5. Terry Francona, 2, 6 (1)
  6. Mike Scioscia, 2, 2
  7. Ron Washington, 2, 2
  8. John Farrell, 1, 1
  9. Ned Yost, 1, 1

National League

MVP

  1. Matt Kemp, 19, 177 (18)
  2. Ryan Braun, 19, 136 (1)
  3. Joey Votto, 9, 45
  4. Justin Upton, 5, 25
  5. Jose Reyes, 2, 10
  6. Roy Halladay, 1, 5
  7. Clayton Kershaw, 1, 5
  8. Albert Pujols, 1, 5

Cy Young

  1. Clayton Kershaw, 19, 71 (11)
  2. Roy Halladay, 19, 65 (7)
  3. Cliff Lee, 18, 34 (1)
  4. Madison Bumgarner, 1, 1

Rookie of the Year

  1. Craig Kimbrel, 16, 56 (9)
  2. Brandon Beachy, 11, 35 (3)
  3. Wilson Ramos, 10, 24 (2)
  4. Josh Collmenter, 5, 23 (4)
  5. Danny Espinosa, 10, 22 (1)
  6. Freddie Freeman, 3, 7
  7. Cory Luebke, 1, 3
  8. Kenley Jansen, 1, 1

Manager of the Year

  1. Kirk Gibson, 15, 65 (11)
  2. Ron Roenicke, 15, 47 (4)
  3. Charlie Manuel, 9, 21 (1)
  4. Terry Collins, 3, 5
  5. Tony La Russa, 3, 5
  6. Don Mattingly, 1, 5 (1)
  7. Davey Johnson, 2, 2
  8. Bud Black, 1, 1
  9. Bruce Bochy, 1, 1
  10. Clint Hurdle, 1, 1

Individual Ballots:  

 


R.J. Anderson

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Desmond Jennings

Joe Girardi

Curtis Granderson

Jered Weaver

Ivan Nova

Jim Leyland

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Josh Collmenter

Ron Roenicke

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Brandon Beachy

Kirk Gibson

Joey Votto

Cliff Lee

Craig Kimbrel

Charlie Manuel


Bradley Ankrom

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Eric Hosmer

Manny Acta

Miguel Cabrera

C.J. Wilson

Desmond Jennings

Terry Francona

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Craig Kimbrel

Charlie Manuel

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Danny Espinosa

Ron Roenicke

Joey Votto

Cliff Lee

Wilson Ramos

Davey Johnson


Derek Carty

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Manny Acta

Jose Bautista

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

Joe Maddon

Curtis Granderson

Felix Hernandez

Mark Trumbo

Joe Girardi

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Cliff Lee

Brandon Beachy

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Danny Espinosa

Ron Roenicke

Joey Votto

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Tony La Russa


Jason Collette

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Jeremy Hellickson

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Michael Pineda

Manny Acta

Justin Verlander

James Shields

Eric Hosmer

Mike Scioscia

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Brandon Beachy

Charlie Manuel

Clayton Kershaw

Cliff Lee

Wilson Ramos

Ron Roenicke


Jeff Euston

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Eric Hosmer

Jim Leyland

Curtis Granderson

David Price

Jeremy Hellickson

Ron Washington

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Wilson Ramos

Ron Roenicke

Justin Upton

Cliff Lee

Freddie Freeman

Tony La Russa


Ken Funck

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jered Weaver

Jeremy Hellickson

Jim Leyland

Miguel Cabrera

James Shields

Dustin Ackley

Joe Girardi

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Josh Collmenter

Ron Roenicke

Joey Votto

Cliff Lee

Danny Espinosa

Charlie Manuel


Steve Goldman

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jose Bautista

Jered Weaver

Jemile Weeks

Jim Leyland

Justin Verlander

CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova

Joe Girardi

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Brandon Beachy

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Craig Kimbrel

Tony La Russa

Joey Votto

Roy Halladay

Kenley Jansen

Ron Roenicke


Larry Granillo

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Jeremy Hellickson

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

Manny Acta

Justin Verlander

Jered Weaver

Eric Hosmer

Joe Girardi

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Freddie Freeman

Charlie Manuel

Justin Upton

Cliff Lee

Wilson Ramos

Ron Roenicke


Jay Jaffe

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Girardi

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jered Weaver

Ivan Nova

Jim Leyland

Justin Verlander

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Josh Collmenter

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Brandon Beachy

Ron Roenicke

Joey Votto

Cliff Lee

Craig Kimbrel

Charlie Manuel


Ben Lindbergh

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

No vote

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Jemile Weeks

No vote

Miguel Cabrera

Jered Weaver

Jeremy Hellickson

No vote

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Danny Espinosa

No vote

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Brandon Beachy

No vote

Joey Votto

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

No vote


Rob McQuown

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Jemile Weeks

Joe Maddon

Jose Bautista

Jered Weaver

Michael Pineda

Joe Girardi

Curtis Granderson

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

Jim Leyland

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Josh Collmenter

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Danny Espinosa

Charlie Manuel

Jose Reyes

Roy Halladay

Wilson Ramos

Bruce Bochy


Sam Miller

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Manny Acta

Jose Bautista

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

Joe Maddon

Justin Verlander

Jered Weaver

Desmond Jennings

Ron Washington

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Craig Kimbrel

Don Mattingly

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Wilson Ramos

Ron Roenicke

Roy Halladay

Clayton Kershaw

Danny Espinosa

Kirk Gibson


Ben Murphy

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Miguel Cabrera

Jered Weaver

Jeremy Hellickson

Jim Leyland

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Dustin Ackley

John Farrell

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Wilson Ramos

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Charlie Manuel

Joey Votto

Cliff Lee

Danny Espinosa

Bud Black


Dustin Parkes

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Terry Francona

Jacoby Ellsbury

James Shields

Dustin Ackley

Manny Acta

Curtis Granderson

CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova

Ned Yost

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Brandon Beachy

Ron Roenicke

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wilson Ramos

Terry Collins

Joey Votto

Madison Bumgarner

Craig Kimbrel

Charlie Manuel


John Perrotto

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Mark Trumbo

Manny Acta

Ian Kinsler

CC Sabathia

Michael Pineda

Jim Leyland

Jose Bautista

Jered Weaver

Brett Lawrie

Mike Scioscia

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Craig Kimbrel

Kirk Gibson

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Danny Espinosa

Ron Roenicke

Justin Upton

Cliff Lee

Brandon Beachy

Clint Hurdle


Daniel Rathman

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

CC Sabathia

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Jacoby Ellsbury

Justin Verlander

Dustin Ackley

Jim Leyland

Curtis Granderson

Dan Haren

Ivan Nova

Manny Acta

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Craig Kimbrel

Ron Roenicke

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Brandon Beachy

Kirk Gibson

Justin Upton

Clayton Kershaw

Wilson Ramos

Terry Collins


Dan Turkenkopf

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Michael Pineda

Joe Maddon

Curtis Granderson

CC Sabathia

Brett Lawrie

Joe Girardi

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jered Weaver

Jeremy Hellickson

Manny Acta

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Josh Collmenter

Kirk Gibson

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Cory Luebke

Ron Roenicke

Justin Upton

Roy Halladay

Danny Espinoza

Davey Johnson


Sam Tydings

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Jeremy Hellickson

Joe Girardi

Jacoby Ellsbury

CC Sabathia

Eric Hosmer

Joe Maddon

Curtis Granderson

Jered Weaver

Ivan Nova

Manny Acta

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Roy Halladay

Craig Kimbrel

Ron Roenicke

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Freddie Freeman

Kirk Gibson

Albert Pujols

Cliff Lee

Brandon Beachy

Terry Collins


Colin Wyers

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Jose Bautista

Justin Verlander

Jemile Weeks

No vote

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jered Weaver

Dustin Ackley

No vote

Justin Verlander

CC Sabathia

Eric Hosmer

No vote

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Wilson Ramos

No vote

Ryan Braun

Roy Halladay

Brandon Beachy

No vote

Jose Reyes

Cliff Lee

Danny Espinosa

No vote

89 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Bradley Ankrom

Genuinely surprised I was the only one to have C.J. Wilson on my AL Cy Young ballot.

Sep 30, 2011 05:03 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Murphy
BP staff

I considered him but (a) he faced extremely easy competition compared to the other contenders and (b) I couldn't find any sophisticated metrics that placed him in the top 3 for me. He certainly had a fantastic season, though.

Oct 03, 2011 08:58 AM
 
wbmurphy428

How did ANYONE not give Verlander their first place vote for Cy Young? Indefensible...gotta be a shameless Yankee homer.

Sep 30, 2011 06:04 AM
rating: 3
 
Bradley Ankrom

Eh, an argument can be built around strength of schedule. Sabathia started 17 games (118 IP) against teams that ended up over .500, whereas Verlander only pitched nine times (65.2 IP) against .500+ teams:

My quick and dirty calculations...
Sabathia: 17 GS / 118 IP / 132 H / 54 ER / 37 BB / 103 SO / 4.12 ERA / 1.43 WHIP
Verlander: 9 GS / 65.2 IP / 44 H / 18 ER / 17 BB / 65 SO / 2.48 ERA / 0.93 WHIP

Sep 30, 2011 06:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

So you're saying that Sabathia pitched pretty well against the teams over .500, while Verlander merely obliterated them? Yeah, sounds like an argument for Sabathia, all right.

Sep 30, 2011 06:33 AM
rating: 4
 
Bradley Ankrom

I'm saying Sabathia pitched nearly twice as many innings as Verlander against teams that were competitive, and that matters.

Sep 30, 2011 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Sabathia did face significantly better offenses, at least per opponent's OPS:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1057014

Sep 30, 2011 09:11 AM
rating: 0
 
Randy Brown
(189)

Using your numbers listed above, Sabathia threw 52.3 more innings against over .500 teams....and allowed 36 more earned runs. That equates to a 6.19 ERA in those extra 52.3 innings.

I completely agree with Bill Johnson's comment. These numbers serve to strengthen the argument for Verlander, not Sabathia. (Not that the argument for Verlander needed strengthening.)

Sep 30, 2011 10:16 AM
rating: 2
 
RedsManRick

Against .500 or worse teams, Verlander put up a 2.33 ERA in 189.3 IP. CC put up a 1.88 ERA in 119.7.

Now, let's use CCs splits on ERA, but give him Verlander's percentage of IP vs. each. His new ERA? 2.46.

Maybe not as cut & dry as we thought?

Sep 30, 2011 12:41 PM
rating: 1
 
Dodger300
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Your questionable vote actually turned terrible when "supported" by a truly foolish explanation.

When you typed out those stat lines, didn't you wince when you noticed that Sabathia has less than twice as many innings, but exactly THREE times the hits and earned runs?

Matusz pitched against tough competition and got clobbered, too. Based on your logic, it seems that he also deserves to be on your ballot.

Sorry to have to be so harsh, but you really should resign from BP and find work more suitable to your talents.

Sep 30, 2011 23:59 PM
rating: -8
 
Dodger300

I should have went back and read your actual vote first instead of assuming from your comment that you were trying to justify voting for Sabathia. Now I see that you did vote for Verlander, and were simply trying to come up with a rationalization for someone else's vote.

I admit was wrong, I was harsh, and I apologize.

Oct 01, 2011 00:13 AM
rating: 4
 
Bradley Ankrom

Yeah, I was just throwing something out there... my vote went to Verlander.

Oct 01, 2011 04:31 AM
rating: 0
 
RedsManRick

Verlander and CC basically had the exact same season with one large exception. Verlander got a ton of help from his defense while CC got very little. Sure, Verlander deserves some credit for his low BABIP, but his career BABIP is .285 and he was .296, .319, .286 the 3 years prior. He is not a .236 BABIP guy -- nobody is. Meanwhile, CC has gone .297, .277, .281, .318. Neither guy has shown significant improvement in their peripherals, so it's hard to believe Verlander suddenly developed a new talent or the CC lost his.

Some people will complain that you can use stats to say anything. Well, tell me why a guy's W-L record or his ERA is a more valid indicator or how well he pitched than another stat. If you want to use the data in an intellectually honest and rigorous way to see which guy pitched better, it's a VERY tight race.

I'd say that you're the one with an indefensible argument. Was Verlander better? Yeah, probably. But the narrative that was attached to each guy grossly overstated the difference.

Sep 30, 2011 11:07 AM
rating: 1
 
CRP13

If you're basing an MVP vote based on BABIP, that's a tough sell. BABIP doesn't preclude the fact that Verlander had a better performance this season. That would be taking statistics too far.

Sep 30, 2011 12:21 PM
rating: -1
 
RedsManRick

Define performance. Why should a pitcher be giving full credit for run prevention or batting average against when his fielders have such a big influence on what happens? Sure, ERA feels like it's measuring his performance because we use it that way so much, but it's not. It's a measure of his performance AND the performance of the other 8 guys on the field with him.

Sep 30, 2011 14:19 PM
rating: 3
 
CRP13

I don't think you can base an award on how a pitcher SHOULD have performed, if circumstances were completely different. BABIP and team defense is no way to judge a pitcher when you're considering who gets a trophy for the best ACTUAL statistical or contributional performance of the season.

If that's the way life worked, Dewey would have defeated Truman.

Sep 30, 2011 18:10 PM
rating: -2
 
Randy Brown
(189)

I think RedsManRick really makes the key point here - by FIP, they were nearly equivalent this year, so the argument becomes how much credit/blame should they get for their BABIP. 0%? 100%? The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in between.

I think the best argument for Sabathia is completely throwing out balls in play and judge them both solely on FIP. Personally, I think that argument goes too far. I do think Verlander generated a lot of weak contact this year, and I do think his skill as a pitcher took a step forward this year.

I agree that the difference between the two probably isn't as great as their ERA's would indicate. But, I do think there is still a sizable enough difference that the choice is clear.

Sep 30, 2011 14:51 PM
rating: 4
 
hmamis
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Ellsbury is one of only a few mlb players in history to have had 30 HRs, 30SBs, 100 RBI's and 100 runs scored and to have over a 300 BA, and your staff members give him a second place vote.

H. Mamis

Sep 30, 2011 06:24 AM
rating: -6
 
mrdannyg

Those numbers are largely meaningless, and the combination of them is also meaningless.

As a Bautista fan, I'm fine with Ellsbury winning the MVP. I'm not fine with it though if it is because someone sticks him 3rd on their ballot, after Kinsler or someone like that.

Sep 30, 2011 06:31 AM
rating: -1
 
Dave Pomerantz

I'd really like to hear John Perotto's rationale for his votes, giving Kinsler 2nd in AL and picking Braun over Kemp. I wouldn't expect that from BP staff, so I'd like to hear WHY.

Sep 30, 2011 09:12 AM
rating: 3
 
Bradley Ankrom

Twenty players have done that, and three did it this year alone (Ellsbury, Kemp, Braun).

Sep 30, 2011 06:38 AM
rating: 0
 
Dave Pomerantz

That clearly means Ellsbury should get the AL hardware, while the NL plaque should be sawed in half and a piece given to each Braun and Kemp.

Sep 30, 2011 09:08 AM
rating: 1
 
smallflowers

I believe he forgot to include the 200 hit piece, but whatever.

Sep 30, 2011 20:08 PM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

Speaking of such things, are the IBAs going to run this year? Haven't heard anything about them.

Sep 30, 2011 06:34 AM
rating: 5
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

Yes, they're coming soon.

Sep 30, 2011 21:53 PM
 
apbadogs
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I get using new age analysis and stats to shine the light on guys who aren't just compilers but there is NO WAY IN HELL that Jose Bautista should be the AL MVP. I do not understand how people think he is...just amazing.

Sep 30, 2011 08:15 AM
rating: -5
 
Nick Wernham

Because he has been more valuable to his team than any other player in the American League this year? He's compiled a larger combination of runs created on offense and runs prevented on defense than any other player. Why wouldn't he be the MVP?

Sep 30, 2011 08:30 AM
rating: 10
 
apbadogs
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Super, Bautista is the best player on a .500 team that finished in 4th, 16 games back, yeah, he's worthy. Good grief, this is a case of people being so blinded by new age "stuff" that they can't see the forest for the trees.

Sep 30, 2011 08:55 AM
rating: -13
 
Jason Wojciechowski

This is a strange website to come complaining about "new age" analysis, whatever that even means.

Sep 30, 2011 09:00 AM
rating: 4
 
Bill Parker

It's not a "forest for the trees" situation, it's applying different definitions of value. The difference is that our definition makes sense in the context of deciding who should win an individual award (because it doesn't depend on how the individual player's teammates did), and yours does not.

Sep 30, 2011 09:08 AM
rating: 5
 
BillJohnson

The "different definitions of value" observation is right on the mark, and I reject the notion that there is a single, unique definition that's "right." Certainty that there is a "right" definition leads to name calling (which, unfortunately, is popping up here) that does little to address the question of who's a credible MVP.

My personal criterion -- I make no statement that it is "right," and certainly not that it is uniquely so -- is: based on what we know from studying (advanced) statistics, plus the usual bloviation about character, etc., could this guy have been replaced by anyone else in baseball, and have his team do better as a result? If not, he's a candidate for a top MVP vote. Bautista surely belongs in the discussion on that count. However, replace Verlander or Ellsbury with anyone else at their positions, and equally surely, their teams do _worse_. Swap Bautista for, say, Curtis Granderson, and Toronto is still a 4th-place team. I would therefore,like apbadogs, devalue Bautista somewhat in my voting -- without asserting that my position, or anyone else's, is "right."

Sep 30, 2011 10:13 AM
rating: 3
 
mrdannyg

"Swap Bautista for, say, Curtis Granderson, and Toronto is still a 4th-place team"

This is true. And the Yankees are still a 1st-place team. So how does that tell you anything?

Heck, swap Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista for just about any average player at their position, and their teams finish in the exact same place. This says absolutely nothing about value.

Sep 30, 2011 11:34 AM
rating: 2
 
apbadogs
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Heck, swap Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista for just about any average player at their position, and their teams finish in the exact same place.
***
Which means nobody on a 4th place team should ever be considered for MVP.

Sep 30, 2011 11:44 AM
rating: -8
 
CRP13

"Heck, swap Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista for just about any average player at their position, and their teams finish in the exact same place."
***
Which means nobody on a 1st place team should ever be considered for MVP.

Sep 30, 2011 12:24 PM
rating: 5
 
BillJohnson

Nonsense. It means that the Yankees are seriously deep in talent this year, as indeed they are. Losing any one player and replacing them with the next best guy in the league wouldn't eviscerate their team.

Take, by contrast, Albert Pujols away from the 2006 Cardinals, for example, and a World Series winner becomes a second-division team. He should absolutely have been MVP that year. Or Josh Hamilton or Joey Votto last year, although you could make a case that Cincinnati would have been as good if they'd had Pujols at 1B instead of Votto. There have been many, many first-place teams where having their best player replaced by someone else would have struck a serious blow to the team. This year's Yankees happen not to be one of them.

FWIW, my AL MVP ballot would (and, if IBA happens, will) start out with 1. Verlander, 2. Bautista, 3. Ellsbury. The performance gap between Bautista and Ellsbury is too large for the "how much difference did he make" criterion to overcome it. The gap between Verlander and Bautista, IMO, was not, and if Detroit hadn't had Verlander doing what he did, they'd have been screwed. In essence, the criterion is a "tiebreaker" among very high performers. Verlander and Bautista were close enough in value for it to be in play. Bautista and Ellsbury were not.

Sep 30, 2011 16:54 PM
rating: -1
 
CRP13

I guess you missed my sarcasm :)

Sep 30, 2011 18:07 PM
rating: 1
 
vtadave

So if Kemp hits .350/.450/.650 with 45 home runs and 50 steals next year while playing Gold Glove caliber defense in CF and the Dodgers finish fourth, he shouldn't get MVP consideration?

Oct 01, 2011 13:47 PM
rating: 1
 
NYYanks826

I really hope this is a joke, and that these posts are supposed to be some kind of representation of the old-school way of looking at statistics.

If that's not the case, then why are you paying to subscribe to a site that clearly goes COMPLETELY against your narrow-minded way of looking at things?

Sep 30, 2011 09:47 AM
rating: -1
 
apbadogs
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

My only point is WAR (which seems to be what many today base their arguments on), in and of itself, is not the way to pick an MVP. Theoretically a player on a 120 loss team could lead the league in WAR every year and, in some of your minds, that person would be a multiple time MVP winner. As Ron Burgundy said about ESPN..."That's just dumb.".

Sep 30, 2011 10:09 AM
rating: -8
 
Dave Pomerantz

Babe Ruth holds 6 of the 15 highest bWAR seasons in baseball history. The highest of those is 14.7. Baseball Reference defines a "replacement level team" as a team with a .320 record, or about 49 wins in Babe Ruth's time. If he was on a team with all replacement level players, they would be expected to go 55-99, but Babe Ruth would still be the greatest hitter of all time, more valuable than anyone before or since.

Sep 30, 2011 10:26 AM
rating: 9
 
Matt Kory

Who ever said they were basing any arguments only on WAR?

Oct 02, 2011 21:17 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Care to expand on your thoughts? Because "no way in hell" isn't a very convincing argument without something to back it up.

Sep 30, 2011 09:00 AM
rating: 4
 
timber

Jemile Weeks? Really? Two first place votes? Why?

Sep 30, 2011 08:23 AM
rating: 0
 
Bradley Ankrom

Weeks (3.2) finished second in the AL, behind Pineda (4.0), in WARP among rookies, there's a case for him.

Sep 30, 2011 09:29 AM
rating: 0
 
carlbrownson

The biggest, fattest canard to me seems to be the two ballots with Jemile Weeks in first place for AL Rookie of the Year. Ahead of Pineda, Hosmer, Hellickson, Ackley? Don't get it at all. He had a nice year, plays good defense, but he did not have the impact those other guys had ...

Sep 30, 2011 08:24 AM
rating: -3
 
MikeJordan23

According to Fangraphs Sabathia finished with a higher WAR than Verlander.

Sep 30, 2011 08:59 AM
rating: 0
 
Matt Kory

That's because Fan Graphs WAR (fWAR) attempts to take defense out of the pitcher's performance by using FIP instead of ERA (I believe - correct me if I'm wrong). If you look at Baseball Reference's WAR (rWAR) you'll see Verlander has 8.6 to Sabathia's 6.9.

Oct 02, 2011 21:22 PM
rating: 0
 
kmbart

I'm confused, does Vance Worley still exist?

Sep 30, 2011 09:13 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

Would have been my number 4 in ROY

Oct 02, 2011 23:22 PM
 
David Laurila

The lede says these are predictions, yet the rest of the article seems to indicate it is how the staff would cast their votes. I assume it is the latter?

Sep 30, 2011 09:25 AM
rating: 2
 
dianagram

In that case, maybe this article should have been "we think this guy SHOULD win, but we predict that in fact THIS guy WILL win" (like various outlets do with their EMMY and OSCAR coverage)

Sep 30, 2011 09:36 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Steven Goldman
BP staff

Changed it to "choices." We weren't trying to predict anything. This is just our POV.

Sep 30, 2011 11:53 AM
 
ScottyB

Internet Baseball Awards??????? I wanna vote, dudes!

Sep 30, 2011 09:41 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

coming soon, promise

Sep 30, 2011 21:54 PM
 
PaddyE

@ Rob McQuown: What's your logic on the 3rd place NL Manager vote for Bochy? Just the act of running Huff out there endlessly should disqualify him.

Sep 30, 2011 10:38 AM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

I'm a little surprised Tony LaRussa didn't get more votes... and Charlie Manuel got so many in comparison. Not that Charlie is bad, but it'd be hard to lose with that rotation. Meanwhile, LaRussa had to win without Pujols being Pujols.

Sep 30, 2011 10:44 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

Yeah, TLR had to win without Pujols being Pujols. However, he also "had" to win with Ryan Franklin and Miguel Batista being Franklin and Batista (shudder) for half the season. TLR's stubborn insistence on not jettisoning has-beens until absolutely necessary (and way beyond) made the wild-card race closer than it needed to be, and the race for the NL Central less close than it should have been.

Sep 30, 2011 11:04 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

You could say the same with Manuel because he gave 500 at bats to Raul Ibanez or Placido Polanco... but Manuel still got more votes for no real reason besides his GM acquiring three aces (Halladay, Lee, Oswalt) to go with Hamels.

Oct 03, 2011 13:26 PM
rating: 0
 
Andrew Martinez

I understand that Bumgarner had a great season, but to have him ahead of Cliff Lee on a ballot confuses me. Those 28 extra innings that Lee provided his team are pretty important in weighing the two.

Sep 30, 2011 11:43 AM
rating: 3
 
amazin_mess

Madison Bumgarner third on the Cy ballot seems a year or two early.

Sep 30, 2011 12:13 PM
rating: 1
 
juiced

An excellent wisdom of the crowds. I agree across the board except I'm torn between Doc and Kershaw, and I think you gotta give Leyland the nod over Maddon for ALMOY. Granted, Maddon would garner the 2nd place vote in my book. too much love for Girardi, insufficient love for Scioscia in your ranks. But really, you guys pretty much nailed them all.

Sep 30, 2011 12:27 PM
rating: 0
 
beerd90210

yeah, to me, the Bumgarner choice is the odd one.

I never understand the you-can't-have-an-mvp-from-the-4th-place-team argument. I somtimes don't understand how you can have an MVP from a first place team. NY's got Cano, Granderson, Teixera, Sabathia, Mo, ARod etc. How is one of them that much more valuable than the other? How is one of them the one that pushed them over the top, when baseball play is so interrelated? you can't get an rbi without someone getting a run scored, etc, etc. Kemp sticks out to me because his second banana is Ethier. Braun and Fielder had each other and a solid Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. Bautista sticks out.

I also don't care that Verlander got lucky or had great d. He got the results he got and they were the best in the league. The luck happened. we're rewarding what happened with these awards, not predicting his ERA for next year. I

Sep 30, 2011 12:32 PM
rating: 4
 
Andrew Martinez

Dan Turkenkopf, how does one not include Craig Kimbrel on their NL ROY ballot? There is a case for Collementer, Luebke, and Espinosa to be included, but not at Kimbrel's expense. If you read this, please help me understand your reasoning.

Sep 30, 2011 12:53 PM
rating: 0
 
Andrew Martinez

Same goes for Colin and Rob.

Sep 30, 2011 12:55 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Turkenkopf
BP staff

I'll be honest - simply missed him. I'd still have him behind Collementer because of number of innings.

Sep 30, 2011 17:33 PM
 
vtadave

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that I'd rather have 77 innings of Kimbrel over 154 of Collmenter.

Oct 01, 2011 13:49 PM
rating: 0
 
beerchaser42

Well, I figured that the comments would be amusing, and full of "how could so-and-so vote for so-and-so, and not vote for (other so-and-so).

I was not wrong.

Sep 30, 2011 14:07 PM
rating: 2
 
Dave Pomerantz

Except I feel like, unlike a number of other blogs and such, here it's an honest question. When I said above "I'd really like to hear John Perotto's rationale for his votes, giving Kinsler 2nd in AL and picking Braun over Kemp," I MEANT that I'd like to hear his rationale, and I will listen with an open mind. I haven't heard any MVP arguments for Kinsler at all, and the only one I've heard for Braun is "team record." So, I'd like to know what a smart guy like John is looking at.

Sep 30, 2011 14:41 PM
rating: 1
 
R.A.Wagman

I don't quite understand how anyone can vote for Mark Trumbo for AL ROY without also voting for J.P. Arencibia. Yes, that might make me a homer, but I fail to see the difference in offensive value, and defensive value is no contest.

Oct 01, 2011 06:40 AM
rating: 3
 
Patrick M

I'm stunned by the NL RotY vote. I would have expected the BBWAA to be distracted by the shiny object (46 saves), but not BP.

Kimbrel was not even the best rookie on his own team. Yes, his rate stats were flashier than Beachy's, but Beachy pitched nearly twice as many innings, and I cannot believe that Kimbrel could overcome that gap by having higher-leverage innings.

Kimbrel had an excellent season, one good enough to have won in some years, but not this one.

By my count, there are three rookie starters who did more to help their clubs win (Collmenter, Luebke, Beachy), and another starter who seems to have had comparable value (Worley, whom BP staffers somehow managed to ignore completely).

And on the position player side, Kimbrel was not a clearly better choice than Ramos or Espinosa.

Y'all home some explaining to do.

Oct 01, 2011 07:39 AM
rating: 0
 
Patrick M

Mr. Goldman:

Kenley Jansen? Really?

Oct 01, 2011 07:41 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Steven Goldman
BP staff

I felt like those 16.1 Ks per nine deserved some recognition in the form of a third-place vote. Does a tip of the hat deserve a "really?"

Oct 01, 2011 10:33 AM
 
Dave Pomerantz

Mr M,

Jansen set the major league record for k/9. He whiffed nearly 50% of the batters he faced. Nobody noticed because he did it in the 7th and 8th innings, not the 9th. Not saying he should win, but a 3rd place vote seems totally reasonable.

Oct 01, 2011 10:40 AM
rating: 1
 
Patrick M

On reflection, I was wrong about the Jansen vote, and I thank Messrs Goldman and Pomerantz for helping me to see that. By my own criteria, he is as reasonable a choice for #3 as anyone I might have chosen myself.

And I shouldn't be calling out one of the few voters who agreed with my original premise: that Kimbrel was the wrong choice for #1.

Oct 01, 2011 10:55 AM
rating: 2
 
Dave Pomerantz

Like I said, I don't think Jansen should win (he played injured and struggled to start the year, and pitched like 20 innings less than Kimbrel), but I DO think he'll have possibly the best career of any of these guys. He was only converted to pitcher 2 years ago, and he has a cutter as nasty as Mo Rivera's - might even be nastier.

For the non Dodgers fans, check it out: http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2011/9/15/kenley-jansens-cutter.html

Oct 01, 2011 17:28 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ken Funck
BP staff

I can only speak for myself, but here's why I put Kimbrel on top of my list: none of the other candidates were truly outstanding at what they did. Collmenter, Beachy, Luebke and Worley were all solid but unspectacular, as were guys like Ramos and Espinosa. Kimbrel, while limited to 77 innings due to modern usage patterns, posted a 1.49 FIP; only three pitcher-seasons since 1950 (Eric Gagne 2003, Pedro Martinez 1999, Rob Dibble 1991) have posted a FIP that low in as many innings. Kimbrel's season was among the all-time leaders in strikeout percentage.

Unlike the other candidates, there are things about his 2011 season that are truly historic, and if there's one player among this year's NL ROY candidates that I think has a chance to go to multiple All-Star games, it's Kimbrel. Numbers like VORP and WARP are a starting point for me, not the end-point.

Oct 01, 2011 09:20 AM
 
Patrick M

Thanks for the reply, Ken. You make a good point about Kimbrel having a stand-out year vis-a-vis closers.

I would ask, though: if Kimbrel's stat line were the same, except for having a more pedestrian number of saves (say 25), would your ballot have changed? If so, why?

Oct 01, 2011 10:40 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ken Funck
BP staff

Honestly, I didn't know his save total until you posted it in your first comment, so I'm sure I still would have voted for him if he only had 25 saves. Would I have voted for him if he had zero saves (i.e., he was a set-up guy, not the closer)? Harder to say, since being made the closer speaks to the organization's confidence in him, but yeah, I probably would still have voted for him.

Oct 01, 2011 10:53 AM
 
RaysProf

I can't believe it! Not a single vote for Dan Johnson! No Johnson, no Rays. (And it was his hit that inspired the Orioles.)

Oct 01, 2011 09:11 AM
rating: 3
 
RaysProf

Since the key is VALUE in MVP, Dan's contributed to at least 25% of the probability that the Rays would make the playoffs. (If we make the lame assumption that the O's were not inspired by Dan's talents, then the chance of the Rays making the playoff's went from about 50% to 75% or higher. Dirtbag simply added a couple more points.)

Of course if we ignore such new-age philosophies which deny cross game connections and include how the O's were guided by Dan, Mr. Johnson took the Rays from 0.02% to more than 50%. What VALUE! Name another player that came close this year? Bautista? A total waste of lumber. Kemp? Lots of pointless homeruns.

I'm starting an internet based write in campaign for MVP for Dan. Yes Dan Johnson for 2011 - the man who made his hit count.

Oct 02, 2011 23:31 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ken Funck
BP staff

I love our readers.

Oct 01, 2011 09:24 AM
 
vtadave

And we love you guys! :-)

Oct 01, 2011 13:51 PM
rating: 0
 
dodgerken222

I want to hear the rationale for the one vote for Terry Francona as Manager of the Year. Half of his starting rotation is out of shape because they guzzle bber in the clubhouse during games they're not starting. Half of the team has a sense of entitlement that they should be in the postseason because of course they should be. No player gets called out even implicitally by the manager because he "has their backs." And one of your staff thinks this was a Manager of the Year performance? Pretty weak.

Oct 01, 2011 09:24 AM
rating: 0
 
Dave Pomerantz

"Guzzle bber" kind of looks like John Lackey has been fellating Justin Bieber. Maybe THAT'S why he's getting divorced.

Oct 01, 2011 17:33 PM
rating: 0
 
dodgerken222

thanks for typo correction...always welcome

Oct 01, 2011 17:40 PM
rating: 0
 
Dave Pomerantz

I hope you didn't take my comment as anything other than a silly aside on the way your typo happened to come out. We all make typos, sometimes they're funny. I didn't mean to insult you.

On another note, I agree about Francona. When a manager has "the best team on paper" as they were so often called, and they fall apart so completely, that manager HAS to bear some of the blame.

Oct 01, 2011 17:50 PM
rating: 1
 
lesmash

Overall I think most of the finishing positions are defensible, but one that stands out as rather odd is Terry Francona getting more points for ALMOY than Ron Washington.

One of these two guided the team with the 3rd highest payroll to the biggest September collapse in the history of baseball, and he has since been let go by his club. The other manager had a team with nearly $70 million less in payroll and they are hosting a playoff round as I write this. Why the former has more total points than the latter is beyond me.

Oct 01, 2011 17:59 PM
rating: 1
 
Joe D.

Man, even in the best year of his career on a fairytale team, James Shields gets no respect.

Shields prevented runs at better than Sabathia, and threw eleven complete games in the process of topping CC by twelve innings pitched in the same number of starts. All while pitching a (slightly) tougher schedule than the big man.

Very similar K/9, BB/9...Sabathia did a better job preventing dingers, Shields allowed less hits. Virtual tie in VORP (Shields with the miniscule edge). You'd think at the very least, they'd be close. But, nope, Shields got smoked.

Perhaps the BABIP/FIP argument is supposed to give Sabathia the edge? If that's the case, I don't know if I buy it...Sabathia allowed 23% line drives, Shields 18.5%. Shields got about 10% pop-ups, CC around 7%. From the data available, it looks like Shields induced weaker contact than Sabathia, so an argument built around BABIP/FIP doesn't wash. Is Shields getting penalized because he allowed less hard contact?

Allow me to conclude my mini-harangue.

James Shields allowed a lower ERA and WHIP in more innings pitched than CC Sabathia while inducing weaker contact, pitching a slightly tougher schedule, and virtually tying in walk rate. He deserves a slight bonus for pitching eleven complete games versus CC's not-close-to-eleven.

CC Sabathia had a better HR rate and slightly better K rate.

That all being said, I do think you could pick any of the top few pitchers in the league and not be wrong. I consider Verlander, Shields, Weaver, and Sabathia to be in such a tight cluster, that I'd be happy with any of them. I just find it rather frustrating it seems to be a three-horse race for the real hardware, with Shields out of the picture...

Oct 02, 2011 02:14 AM
rating: 1
 
Lou Doench

I'm just happy to see Joey Votto recognized for a very good but unheralded season as the consistently # 3 MVP candidate in the NL.

Oct 02, 2011 19:11 PM
rating: 0
 
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