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September 28, 2011

Transaction Analysis

Ozzieball Does Miami

by Kevin Goldstein

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How do you judge a manager trade? White Sox fans were hoping for a disgruntled Logan Morrison in return for a disgruntled Ozzie Guillen, and while that was never going to happen, it was surprising to see the White Sox get anything in return for a manager who had run his course. The South Siders received a pair of prospects who entered the year as the fourth- and seventh-best prospects in the Marlins' system, but both saw their stock fall during the 2011 season.

 

Shortstop Osvaldo Martinez entered the year as the Marlins' fourth-best prospect, but after showing a line-drive bat and some on-base skills in 2010, he slid to .245/.296/.322 at Triple-A New Orleans while creating further questions about his ability to play baseball's toughest position on an everyday basis. He's an average runner with limited range who has a best-case scenario as a utility man, but even that is not in the cards until he can rebound from a Triple-A debut that saw his OPS fall by 151 points.

 Right-handed reliever Jhan Marinez is far more likely to make some noise on the South Side of Chicago. His 74 strikeouts in 58 Double-A innings are no mirage, as the 23-year-old Dominican has mid- to upper-90s gas to go with a solid-average slider, but after reaching the majors in 2010, he never escaped Jacksonville thanks to control issues that went from bad to worse with 42 walks. More strikes could equal a role in the big-league bullpen down the road, but he's still far from refining what is unquestionably late-innings stuff.  

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

16 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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slingblade73

Just shoot me now.

Sep 28, 2011 06:06 AM
rating: 0
 
mrdannyg

Can I assume that "division" in the Martinez write-up should actually be "position"?

Sep 28, 2011 06:07 AM
rating: 0
 
Benjamin Harris

Hey Sarge,

I know it's not your area, but what are your thoughts on the other side of the deal? If possible, can you write it in Not Ozzie Guillen's voice?

Sep 28, 2011 07:26 AM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

I fail to see how this will work for Florida.

Sep 28, 2011 07:36 AM
rating: 1
 
SGreenwell

It could "work" in the way that Florida has stumbled into a decent way of compensating players by being cheapskates. They sign up superstars (Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirez) and let anyone else walk once they get to or through arbitration.

As a result, they always have younger players, and typically you have more volatility from younger players. That means some 70-92 seasons, but also a chance at some 92-70 seasons if you get some outlier performances. Either way, you're not spending a ton on payroll and the owners are probably pocketing plenty of revenue money.

Sep 28, 2011 08:07 AM
rating: 2
 
rposborne

Ozzie will be an interesting manager in that kind of up and down context. I think he can draw a little extra out of a team that's doing well. I also think there's something in the way he handles personalities that can make a bad team worse. There's not a lot of in between with him.

Sep 28, 2011 08:20 AM
rating: 0
 
briant1
(778)

So Guillen was on his way out in Chicago, desperately wanted to manage in Florida, the Marlins were willing to double his salary, yet rather than wait for him to fall into their laps, they give up 2 prospects for him?

Obviously I'm missing something.

Sep 28, 2011 10:30 AM
rating: 2
 
Karl Barth

You are missing the fact that he was under contract with CWS until the end of the 2012 season. Ozzie and FLA both didn't want to wait. They paid to make it possible for him to manage in Miami in 2012.

Sep 28, 2011 10:36 AM
rating: 2
 
briant1
(778)

But wouldn't the Sox have had to fire him to get rid of him? And if so, would they still retain his rights? I know they would still owe him money, but if you cut a player during their contract, you can't demand a prospect back when they sign with someone else.

Sep 28, 2011 11:26 AM
rating: 0
 
lmarighi

At least one story I read did claim that the White Sox let him go but reserved the right claim compensation if he took a job with someone else.

Sep 28, 2011 13:06 PM
rating: 1
 
Lloyd Cole

Wow, 2012 should be great in Miami!

Shiny new stadium, fiery new manager, maybe a new free agent or two, new owner....Oh, wait. Never mind.

Sep 28, 2011 11:12 AM
rating: 3
 
Richard Bergstrom

Logan Morrison was guessing that, with the acquisition of Ozzie Guillen, they'd name the new stadium the TwitterDome

Oct 03, 2011 00:52 AM
rating: 0
 
ScottyB

Does this mean Chicago is off the hook for the remaining year and $ on his contract? If so, they should have been the team sending a prospect to Miami.

Also, how does this compare to the Pinella to rays for Randy Winn trade?

Sep 28, 2011 11:23 AM
rating: 0
 
Eddie

I can't see how someone as volatile and outspoken as Guillen can survive with the Marlin's ownership, which seems to actively discourage both of those traits in their managers.

Sep 28, 2011 12:27 PM
rating: 0
 
rgbauer

Maybe someone who really knows what he is talking about will respond to the various questions about Ozzie's contract, but in the meantime, I can say with some certainty, based on local press reports, that the Sox did not fire Ozzie, and that therefore they are off the hook for 2012. I'm not sure about the technicalities, but because the Sox agreed to let Ozzie out of his contract, they expected to be compensated, and obviously the league (and the Marlins) agreed.

Sep 28, 2011 12:50 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Shocking that Ozzie is that sought after. As a small-ball advocate, how's he going to get along with Mike Stanton? How will he have the patience/restraint to deal with Hanley Ramirez' shenanigans? Will he put up with sharing the loony limelight with Morrison?

This seems more like a PR move, because of the media noise he generates, and because--dare I say it?--he will appeal to Miami's Cuban population. Not bad reasons in themselves, but if they think this makes them a better ballclub, I say they're crazy.

Sep 28, 2011 13:56 PM
rating: 2
 
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