CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

World Series time! Enjoy Premium-level access to most features through the end of the Series!

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Outfield ... (09/27)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL... (09/20)
Next Column >>
Divide and Conquer, NL... (10/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: San F... (09/27)

September 27, 2011

Divide and Conquer, NL West

Is There a Draft in Here, or is that Just 2006?

by Geoff Young

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

I'd wanted to write about Clayton Kershaw because I haven't discussed him in as much detail as his season merits, but finding a fresh angle proved to be difficult. Improved control? Done. Comparisons to Sandy Koufax? Done. A thousand other things? Done.

Still, I pondered the possibilities. And I got to thinking about when Kershaw was drafted, which was with the seventh pick overall in 2006. The Dodgers did nothing with the rest of that draft—the only other players they selected that have reached the big leagues are Alex White (14th round, currently pitches for the Rockies) and Paul Goldschmidt (49th round, currently plays first base for the Diamondbacks), neither of whom signed out of high school—not that they needed to after picking up a gem like Kershaw.

As is often the case with drafts, which are populated with unknown players, some choices look downright baffling five years after the fact. How did Evan Longoria slip to the third pick? How did Andrew Miller go before Kershaw? Billy Rowell before Tim Lincecum? And so on... Not that this is anything new. Second-guessing the draft has been great sport since its inception, or at least its second year... Steve Chilcott before Reggie Jackson, anyone?

Dodgers and Giants Draw Aces
But we're veering from the point, which is this: The current state of the National League West has been shaped in no small part by the 2006 draft. Consider, for example, the first round:

Pick

Team

Player

2

Col

Greg Reynolds

7

LA

Clayton Kershaw

10

SF

Tim Lincecum

11

Ari

Max Scherzer

17

SD

Matt Antonelli

26

LA

Bryan Morris

Everyone except the Rockies had a supplemental pick as well, although only Emmanuel Burriss has reached the big leagues. (Preston Mattingly, taken with the 31st pick overall, is the son of current Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. Unfortunately, Preston didn't inherit his father's ability to crush baseballs and has hit just .232/.276/.335 in 463 minor-league games, none above High-A.)

Reynolds, Antonelli, and Morris have done nothing. Reynolds is the Rockies' only 2006 draftee to play for the team, and he owns a 7.47 ERA in 27 career appearances through September 25.

The Padres picked up a few useful pieces later in the draft, including perennial sixth starter Wade LeBlanc (second round), third baseman David Freese (ninth round, shipped to St. Louis for the expensive but useless Jim Edmonds), and most notably, right-hander Mat Latos (11th round).

The Giants didn't get much of value beyond their first-round pick. A few guys have had cups of coffee, but seventh-rounder Brett Pill is the only one who might turn into something. Arizona, meanwhile, popped southpaws Brett Anderson (second round) and Clay Zavada (30th round) to go with Scherzer, but we're getting ahead of the story.

Kershaw and Lincecum have been brilliant big-league pitchers. Lincecum won the Cy Young Award in each of his first two full seasons. Kershaw is a serious contender for this year's award (he would get my vote if I had one), and he is younger than Lincecum was when he won his first.

Latos is the same age as Kershaw, and although the right-hander hasn't enjoyed the same level of success as he did last year, there's still a lot to like:

Year

IP

ERA

FIP

2010

184.2

2.92

3.03

2011

187.1

3.60

3.21

The biggest concern for Latos is whether he can stay healthy. He isn't Lincecum or Kershaw, but he's pretty darned good.

Snakes Make a Deal... or Four
Returning to the Diamondbacks, Scherzer and Anderson have been solid big-league pitchers, but the players Arizona flipped them for have been even better—at least this year. First, let's look at Scherzer:

Scherzer became Kennedy, Hudson, and a three-star prospect. Two of those guys have played huge roles in the Diamondbacks' surprise resurgence that has them headed to the postseason. Not a bad haul.

Now Anderson:

Okay, Gonzalez has gone on to become a great player for the Rockies. And it could be argued that Arizona would have been better off not trading Haren, although if ever a team appeared to be rebuilding last July, the Diamondbacks were it.

There is nothing sexy about Saunders' game, but the guy eats innings and isn't terrible. Meanwhile, Arizona also picked up Corbin (eighth-best prospect in the system) and Skaggs (second-best). For a team that was thought to be building for the future, that is at least defensible.

Here's the net result of the Scherzer and Anderson trades:

Out

In

Brett Anderson

Chris Carter

Aaron Cunningham

Dana Eveland

Carlos Gonzalez

Max Scherzer

Daniel Schlereth

Greg Smith

Patrick Corbin

David Holmberg

Daniel Hudson

Ian Kennedy

Connor Robertson

Rafael Rodriguez

Joe Saunders

Tyler Skaggs

Focusing on the primaries in these deals, are the Diamondbacks better now with Hudson, Kennedy, and Saunders than they would be with Anderson, Gonzalez, and Scherzer? Granted, Anderson got hurt, but it sure looks that way:

Out

In

Player

WARP

Player

WARP

Gonzalez

2.8

Kennedy

4.8

Scherzer

2.0

Hudson

4.4

Anderson

0.6

Saunders

2.3

Moving beyond current value, Corbin, Holmberg, and Skaggs could be useful down the line. This is looking good for the Diamondbacks now and into the future.

(While we're on the subject of trades, it is worth noting that the Dodgers' failure to sign Goldschmidt in 2006 opened the door for Arizona to draft him three years later. Without Goldschmidt, the Snakes might not have been willing to send Brandon Allen to Oakland for reliever Brad Ziegler—who has become an important part of the bullpen—back in July.)

Four Out of Five Teams Surveyed Love Their Hands
Returning to the bigger picture, here are the pitchers taken (or acquired for those taken) in the 2006 draft that are currently in NL West rotations:

Player

Age

IP

ERA

FIP

WARP

Rnk

Kershaw

23

233.1

2.28

2.43

7.0

1

Kennedy

26

222.0

2.88

3.18

4.8

5

Hudson

24

215.0

3.43

3.20

4.4

9

Lincecum

27

217.0

2.74

3.13

3.6

19

Latos

23

187.1

3.60

3.21

3.0

27

Saunders

30

206.0

3.58

4.73

2.3

43

Rnk = NL rank in WARP.

That's four of the league's 20 best pitchers, plus two guys who have been solid. All except Saunders are well under 30 years old and, health permitting, should be serious forces in the division for some time.

There is a theory that the draft is a crapshoot. This may be so—Miller is not Kershaw, Rowell is not Lincecum, Chilcutt is not Jackson—but if you are a good (or, if you prefer, lucky) enough shot, you just might get rewarded with a championship. Lincecum helped lead the Giants to the title in 2010.  Kennedy, Hudson, and Saunders—along with Goldschmidt and Ziegler—hope to do the same for the Diamondbacks this year.

3 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Outfield ... (09/27)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL... (09/20)
Next Column >>
Divide and Conquer, NL... (10/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: San F... (09/27)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Moonshot: The Royals, the Strike Zone, and a...
Playoff Prospectus: The Other Royals: World ...
Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Oct...
Fantasy Freestyle: Playoff Spotlight: Brando...
The Lineup Card: Nine Unlikely Postseason He...
Daisy Cutter: Cain's Overlooked Arrival
Playoff Prospectus: Royals Spit Hot Fire: Wo...

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 27, 2011
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: San Francisco Giants
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Outfield Review
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: Los Angeles Angels
The Prospectus Hit List: Daily Hit List 9/27...
The BP Wayback Machine: Props for the Ozzero...

MORE BY GEOFF YOUNG
2012-01-23 - Premium Article Western Front: Perpetually Rebuilding the Pa...
2012-01-17 - Western Front: A Haphazard History of Halos ...
2011-10-25 - Divide and Conquer, NL West: What are the Pa...
2011-09-27 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Is There a Draf...
2011-09-20 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Thirty-Two Shor...
2011-09-13 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: This Is Not Sur...
2011-09-06 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Beating the Wea...
More...

MORE DIVIDE AND CONQUER, NL WEST
2011-10-25 - Divide and Conquer, NL West: What are the Pa...
2011-09-27 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Is There a Draf...
2011-09-20 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Thirty-Two Shor...
2011-09-13 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: This Is Not Sur...
2011-09-06 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: Beating the Wea...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-10-30 - Premium Article Western Front: Three Giant Draft Picks