Happy Labor Day! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume on Tuesday, September 2.
May 1, 2002
The Daily Prospectus
The Daily Prospectus: Open Issues
I suppose one way to generate column ideas is to screw up.
Yesterday, ESPN.com ran a piece I wrote making the case that the National League has become the superior circuit. To bolster my argument, I included a chart that showed that at most positions, the NL had more of the top hitters.
Many people wrote in to point that because the NL had more teams than the AL, they would be expected to have more of the players in any one grouping.
E: Sheehan (21)
The chart stands out as a classic example of a problem you often see in sports coverage, and one that we've spent a lot of time railing against: choosing data to support a preconceived conclusion, rather than examining data to see what's there. I went into the piece convinced that the NL is currently a better league than the AL, and when the method I chose to illustrate the point confirmed that notion, I didn't spend a lot of time questioning it.
Now, I stand by my conclusion, and at that, by the rest of the article. I believe the National League has more talent right now, top to bottom, and far fewer hopeless cases than the American League. But the data presented was egregiously flawed and poorly thought-out, and it blew a hole right through the middle of the piece.
Thanks to the many readers--and BP staffers--who took the time to write in and point out the problems. I can do better, and the readership deserves that.
On to other old business...Monday's column on defensive performance generated a lot of e-mail, some of which I'll address here:
I should reiterate that DE is a quick-and-dirty method for measuring a team's range. I happen to like it because it's fairly easily calculated and it's clear what the number is measuring. I think it's important as additional information when we're trying to see why certain teams might be over- or under-performing their expectations, or preventing or allowing more runs than their pitchers' performances would indicate. It's not a magic bullet, just an interesting tool for measuring something--team defense--for which there is no magic bullet.