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The wee hours of Thursday morning featured some strange extra-innings baseball. Wilson Valdez's 19th-inning relief work provided a weird and wonderful reward for those who stayed up late enough to watch, as the Phillies' fill-in second baseman became the first position player to garner a win since Brent Mayne in 2000 thanks to a scoreless inning against the Reds. Alas, the 12-inning Giants-Marlins game produced a result with more lasting effect, as Buster Posey suffered a severe leg injury in a collision at home plate. Tagging up on a sacrifice fly, the Marlins' Scott Cousins threw a cross-body block on Posey, who was blocking the plate as he awaited the ball's arrival. The star backstop's left foot was pinned beneath him as the rest of his body rotated upon impact. In short, he got creamed. The Giants have yet to release official word on the severity of the injury, but the early report is that he has both a leg fracture and torn ligaments, the latter possibly in his knee, along the lines of last season's Carlos Santana injury. Posey's season is almost certainly done, and the looming question, beyond what this could mean for his career behind the plate, is whether the defending world champions are done, too.

Posey's agent and ESPN's Buster "Solidarity in Nicknames" Olney have both called for a rules change to prevent This Sort of Thing, but none of that helps the Giants right now. Despite Wednesday night's loss, they sit atop the NL West at 27-21, leading the Diamondbacks and Rockies by 2.5 and 3.0 games, respectively. They're rather lucky to be leading the division given that they've actually been outscored by two runs. They currently rank seventh on the NL Hit List, with an adjusted Hit List Factor of .508. They've exceeded their first-order Pythagenpat projection by an NL-high 3.2 wins, and are 1.7 wins above their third-order projection. Their pitching staff's stinginess (3.58 runs per game, third in the NL) is essentially equal to their offense's decrepitude (3.54 runs per game, third-to-last), and that is where the Giants' real problem lies.

Posey is hitting just .284/.368/.389, a significant step down from last year's stellar .305/.357/.505 showing as a rookie. Some of that decline owes to the league-wide offensive downturn, but it still represents a 44-point drop in True Average, from .310 to .266. Still, this is a player whose weighted mean PECOTA projection calls for a .295 TAv and a .292/.360/.466 line, significantly more muscle than he's currently providing. Oddly, his May performance (.311/.414/.351) had been thoroughly slaptastic, much differently shaped than April's .261/.327/.420 line.

Given that the Giants rank 11th in the league in batting average (.243), 13th in OBP (.308), and 12th in slugging percentage (.366), they're in no position to complain about help in any slash category, or from any position. Taking a page from last year's playbook, manager Bruce Bochy has relied upon his players' positional flexibility to shuffle his lineup amid injuries, but nearly every key hitter is underperforming, hardly a surprise given that last year's championship run owed much to career years from journeymen (Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres) and hackers on hot streaks (Juan Uribe, Cody Ross). Compare the performances of the 11 Giants with at least 80 plate appearances against their PECOTA projections:
 

Player

PA

TAv
(Actual)

TAv (PECOTA)

+/-

Andres Torres

88

.300

.262

.038

Pablo Sandoval

91

.323

.290

.033

Nate Schierholtz

96

.291

.264

.027

Cody Ross

107

.274

.266

.008

Freddy Sanchez

195

.264

.256

.008

Mike Fontenot

108

.256

.256

.000

Pat Burrell

138

.273

.274

-.001

Aaron Rowand

150

.239

.256

-.017

Buster Posey

185

.266

.295

-.029

Miguel Tejada

179

.207

.249

-.042

Aubrey Huff

195

.226

.276

-.050


Of that group, Sandoval is currently on the disabled list due to a broken hamate bone that required surgery, a major blow given that his improved conditioning helped restore his ability to hit as he did in 2008-2009. He's probably a couple of weeks away, but coming off a hand injury, his stroke could take longer to recover. Torres already missed three weeks due to an Achilles strain, though he thus far has shown no signs that last year's breakout was a fluke. Ross, Sanchez, Fontenot, and Burrell are delivering performances right in line with expectation, which is to say that they've collectively been very, very average. Fontenot has been overexposed by injuries to both Sandoval and Mark DeRosa (who again went down with a wrist injury), and by Tejada's suckitude, playing shortstop while the dessicated remains of Miggy shift back to third base; after hitting an improbable .264/.365/.547 through his first 63 plate appearances, he's crashed back to earth over his last 45 (.128/.244/.179). Rowand has been too much like himself for polite company.

Aside from the injuries, Huff is the real problem for the Giants' lineup. Rebounding from a terrible 2009, he emerged as both a rally-thonged leader and a mid-lineup force, hitting .290/.385/.506 with a team-high 26 homers last year while playing for just $3 million dollars. Naturally, general manager Brian Sabean saw the bountiful possibilities of a 34-year-old defensive liability coming off a career year, and rewarded Huff with a two-year, $22 million deal. Mind you, he did this with top hitting prospect Brandon Belt, a first baseman, coming off one of the biggest breakouts in all of the minors last season. After climbing from High-A to Triple-A over the course of 2010, Belt was so impressive during spring training that he was the team's opening day first baseman. Alas, not only did he not hit during his three-week stay (.192/.300/.269), he exposed Huff as a terrible outfielder, one who might spend more time on his stomach than on his feet.

Belt has been recalled from Triple-A Fresno, where he was hitting .337/.470/.525 while spending most of his time in left field. Obviously, he can't catch, so no matter where he fits into the lineup, the Giants take a hit elsewhere, whether that means sitting the offense's second-highest paid player (he'd look great next to its highest-paid benchwarmer, Rowand), or crowding out Burrell, Ross, or Schierholtz, who are at least producing. None of that figures to help a defense with a .702 Defensive Efficiency, two points above average—particularly if Bochy takes Huff up on his threat to fill in at third base, where he was five runs below average per 100 games from 2000-2008, and closer to 10 runs below average towards the latter stages of that run.

As for Posey's substitute behind the plate, the Giants have nothing but replacement level fodder in 31-year-old backup Eli Whiteside and 29-year-old callup Chris Stewart. The former is a career .231/.283/.366 hitter, the latter is a journeyman with a .188/.235/.229 line in the majors; both have PECOTA forecasts for .227 True Averages. Their starting catcher in Double-A, Johnny Monell, is vaguely intriguing but fringy, a 25-year-old former 30th round pick who's currently hitting .221/.299/.400 but who did hit .273/.350/.487 in the hitter-friendly California League last year before getting a brief taste of Triple-A. He's a lefty slugger with subpar plate discipline and raw receiving skills, but a good enough arm to throw out 29 percent of stolen base attempts last year.

The Giants will need to go outside the organization to get any kind of real production from their catcher, with the Pirates' Ryan Doumit (.272/.337/.446) the most obvious option; the Bucs have spent more than a year trying to trade him, but he broke camp as the team's starter in the wake of Chris Snyder's back woes. Provided a big enough backhoe, Sabean could disinter 36-year-old Bengie Molina for old times' sake, but he hit just .265/.285/.442 last year, and is forecast for a .236 TAv. For that matter, the GM might as well chase down brother Jose Molina, who is enjoying his quadrennial Hit Like a Normal Person cycle, batting .296/.367/.444 in a slim 61 plate appearance slice for Toronto, though PECOTA is doubled over laughing at the thought he might maintain that given his .212 TAv forecast. The Angels' Bobby Wilson, out of options and buried behind Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger, could be available, but he owns just a lifetime .228/.286/.398 line, and his forecast for .247 TAv doesn't offer tremendous promise. There exists no shortage of flatlining backups with experience—Pudge Rodriguez, Kelly Shoppach, Jason Varitek, hell, even Jorge Posada, who was drafted on Sabean's watch in 1990—but if you're going that route, you might as well just page Dick Dietz, whose bat has more life.

Even given his diminished production, Posey is going to be nearly impossible for the Giants to replace directly, though given the collection of underperformers on hand, the team could upgrade just about anywhere to help the offense; as discussed earlier this week, Jose Reyes would provide a real upgrade at shortstop. Fortunately, the Giants still have a top-notch rotation headed by Tim Lincecum, who could well win his third Cy Young award, and four other starters, including Barry Zito fill-in Ryan Vogelsong, with ERAs under 3.80; the unit's collective 3.21 mark is third in the league. The problem, of course, is support; as the 1-6 Madison Bumgarner is showing, it's very tough to win when you don't get any. The 2.3 runs per game he's receiving is the league's third-worst rate, and only Vogelsong and Matt Cain (4.3 and 4.1 runs per game, respectively) are matching or exceeding the league average.

The NL West isn't exactly a powerhouse this year. The Rockies are reeling from the loss of Jorge de la Rosa and the struggles of Ubaldo Jimenez, Carlos Gonzalez, and others. The Diamondbacks are a game above .500, but their run differential is in the red, and their pitching staff leaves plenty to be desired. The Dodgers are in injury-stack hell, with a low-OBP lineup that's even worse than San Francisco's. The Padres are so last year. With a half-decent replacement for Posey, the Giants could still take this field, but that challenge is much, much harder than it looked less than 24 hours ago.
 

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pobothecat
5/26
Two Dick Dietz references in two days.
jdouglass
5/26
"Tagging up on a sacrifice fly, the Marlins' Scott Cousins threw a cross-body block on Posey, who was blocking the plate as he awaited the ball's arrival. "

I've watched this vid two dozen times today trying to find Posey in front of the plate. Never happens. Doesn't get so much as a toe in front of home plate. Cousins came toward home on the foul side of the line, crossed the foul line taking an angle toward Posey, who is in front of home awaiting the ball, and hit Posey in front of the plate. Posey was in no way blocking the plate at any time.
jjaffe
5/26
Not being a particular fan of season-ending sports carnage, and with an unplanned deadline to fullfill, I had only seen the play from one angle when I wrote that, and by "blocking the plate," I didn't mean anything more precise than "being in the general vicinity of the plate, awaiting the arrival of the ball."

Looking at the overhead shot on MLB.com's replay, Posey IS in front of the plate, if by in front of the plate you mean between the plate and the mound (I'm not the only one who's being imprecise). The question I think we're both after is whether Posey was between the runner and home plate, and from that angle it's clear he was not. Cousins' hit actually looks fairly egregious, since as Pete points out below, he could have done a hook slide around the catcher.

In any event, the specifics of the play are less relevant to the tack I'm covering here than to, say, the points Joe Sheehan or Buster Olney were making about the propriety of the play.
zasxcdfv
5/26
He didn't have the ball and was in the path of the runner - I don't see the big deal; they're professionals, not children.
prist14
5/26
Does anyone have a problem with the baserunner coming inside the basepath to nail Posey? It seems to me that a hook-slide would have been sufficient.
goldenyeti
5/26
With the benefit of hindsight, it's clear that he should have slid. But trying to make a split-second decision is different than looking at a replay in slo-mo from a completely different angle. Given that colliding with the catcher is considered a legitimate part of baseball, I don't think you can really criticize Cousins for doing so.

That said, Carlos Santana got hurt on a collision at home last season. I for one would rather be able to watch the best young players in the game play baseball rather than get carted off. It's never really been clear to me why the "knocking the ball away" strategy is allowed on plays at home when it clearly would not be anywhere else on the diamond - if a player trying to beat out a single plowed into the first baseman, that would clearly not be legal, so why is it OK at home? I for one would not be upset to see MLB investigating rule changes to prevent these kind of collisions in the off-season.
rweiler
5/26
I'm guessing that the thinking is that unlike every other position player and the base runner,the catcher is wearing protective gear, so a base runner hits the catcher at their own risk. It that is the reasoning it is flawed because catchers gear is not designed for that, and as we saw with Posey, the catcher isn't likely to be in a position to defend themselves at the moment of the collision. Personally, I wouldn't mind a rule change that says you have to head for the plate and not for the catcher. I can't see how it hurts the game and it would avoid some of these types of injuries.
Scartore
5/26
OK, I just watched the feed at MLB.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15201733

Cousins is definitely in the wrong from what I saw, and he knew it immediately. It looks like a free safety unloading on a defenseless receiver. I'd have thrown him out of the game same as if he threw a punch.
Scartore
5/26
Ok, I looked again... I still think the play was unwise, at first blush it looked like he took the dudes head off. But it was most likely within the rules
prist14
5/26
Re: making a split-second decision

The baserunner did make a split-second decision, though. He came towards Posey right at the end of the play. You can see it clearly in the replay.
jdouglass
5/27
Here's a link (not sure if such are allowed here, hope it comes through) to a screenshot as the ball and Cousins are headed home. Cousins is on the foul side of the 3B line, headed straight for the plate.

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lltjxtsAuN1qjxbiwo1_500.jpg

Here's a screenshot from a second later. Cousins has turned and now his path is one that, if he continues straight, he's headed nowhere near the plate. The play is now him going for catcher, not base. That's the decision he's made.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lltjz3meqw1qjxbiwo1_500.jpg

Here's the collision. He hits Posey in his right shoulder, the first-base side of the catcher, as Posey is turning and without the ball, which in fairness Cousins has little chance of seeing.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lltk01mOt31qjxbiwo1_500.jpg

In none of these plays is Posey in front of the baserunner's path to home plate. He's not impeding Cousins from the base. I know Cousins was remorseful immediately and in all the interviews he's given. I'm sure he feels awful. I'm sure he's not a NHL-grade goon. But I'd love to see something implemented where MLB players know--and support--that if your instincts lead you to smashing another player in a manner like this, you're in hot water.
igjarjuk
5/26
It's easy to fix: catcher's can't block the baseline leading to the plate; if they do so, the runner is automatically safe. Baserunners cannot purposefully collide with fielder's who are not obstructing their path to the plate. If they do so they are automatically out. All collisions will be reviewed after the game, with fines or suspensions doled out when necessary. In this case, the rules should have been applied as follows: Buster was not blocking the plate, Cousins was not within his rights to slam into Posey. Cousins is called automatically out and subject to fines and/or suspension. Of course none of the damage done here can be undone, and I don't think it would be fair to come after Cousins now, as this sort have play has become a norm, but I think this logic has to be applied going forward for the sake of players and fans. I think something similar has to be done about plays at second base. In the college game, if you slide past the bag or out of the baseline, the runners are automatically out. To say that "this is just how the game is" is a complete cop out. There are some plays that are just freak accidents, but his play was the result of a terrible incentive structure in combination with lax enforcement of the rule book.
jjaffe
5/26
Agreed. This is the best summation of the ones I've read here.

I put together a multiframe JPEG of the overhead shot at http://twitpic.com/52wwav. It looks like Cousins veers on the wrong side of the baseline, pretty clearly going for contact with Posey, not the plate. I realize it's a split-second decision, but it looks pretty horseshit to me. If the Neanderthal Football League can make rules to protect its players, then it does seem to me at the very least MLB can enforce its own rules in an attempt to minimize the number of collisions at the plate. Stars or not, losing players to severe injuries just plain sucks.
BurrRutledge
5/27
I have reviewed all of the links above, with various video images and review of the rules. Posey wasn't blocking the plate without the ball.

As I recall from last year, Carlos Santana had his entire left leg positioned on the third base side of the plate in an attempt to block it, long before the ball arrived. Posey did not.

http://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=carlos+santana+injury&fr=my-myy&toggle=1&cop=&ei=UTF-8 [camera angle looking right up the third baseline]

In the past, I have been an advocate for the runner to collide with catchers blocking the plate. I've changed my mind.
EricMeeker
5/26
Couldn't have said it better myself. MLB needs to protect it's players.
misterjohnny
5/26
I disagree that this was Cousins fault. Posey starts out in front of the plate (between home and the mound). But when the throw comes in, he turns toward the runner (although without the ball). He is then between the runner and the plate. 1:25 into the video posted by Scartore. There is no way a hook slide gets around him.
rweiler
5/27
Jay Jaffe's still frames don't support you. Yes, Posey had his foot briefly on the foul line, but Cousins could have gotten around him to home plate with a hook slide easily. or, since he was obviously willing to go in head first, slide in head first and reach out with his left hand as he got near the plate. The freeze frames make it pretty clear that Cousins was making no attempt at all to get to home plate, he was attempting to clobber Posey while he was fielding the throw. I don't think anybody would have had a problem with the play if Cousins had slid into Posey's extended leg. The result might well have been the same, but he would have clearly been going for the plate, and not the fielder.
misterjohnny
5/26
Furthermore, Posey originally set up with his left foot on the foul line. The throw caused him to pull it forward a bit, but then he turned right back into the play with his whole body.
UtahDave
5/26
Life long Pirates fan - since 1970.

Dave Parker vs. Johnny Oates. Oates wins and Parker loses.

Pete Rose vs. Ray Fosse. Rose wins and Fosse loses.

Sometimes the runner "wins" and sometimes the catcher "wins".

What Cousins did was within the rules of the game. What he was trying to do was win the game for his team. He gets paid to do that. What he was not trying to do was hurt Buster Posey. That was an unfortunate outcome of the event.

I really like the the recommendation of igkarjuk posted at 14:43. To me, that makes sense. MLB needs to re-look at this situation just like the NFL has relooked at hitting defenseless players. Just because "we always did it that way" doesn't mean it's right.

Doumit (or Chris Snyder) to the Giants to replace Posey. Maholm to the Rockies to replace DeLaRosa. Don't blow it Neal.

igjarjuk
5/26
But we shouldn't be in this position. A collision between a catcher and a baserunner should always be an accident, not an outcome of intent. The baserunner should be allowed to think "slide" without perceiving this to be a disadvantage to the play's outcomes; the catcher should be allowed to thing "catch and tag" without worrying that he's about to be blasted by a runner coming full tilt. It doesn't matter who "wins" or "loses" the clash of bodies, we simply shouldn't be encouraging the collision. If we enforce a new set of rules (or the same rules in a new way), Posey wouldn't be in the path of Cousins, however Cousins construes that path, and likewise it would never occur to Cousins to slam into Posey. Set aside who's at fault in this instance: given the current structure of the rulebook and enforcement of that rulebook, both players had incentives that lead to the collision. Remove the incentives and you reduce the likelihood of the collision, we still have an exciting play at the plate, and we have two players who are more likely to come out the other side of the play no worse for wear.
scareduck
5/26
It seems to me that at a more fundamental level, what we are dealing with here is a kind of advanced sort of scofflawry. The fielder is not allowed to block the plate, per rule 7.06(b). More here (and the original Bill James discussion that sparked this):

http://bit.ly/iRKx3L
jjaffe
5/26
Via SF-Chron's Hank Schulman (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=89833), Posey sustained a fractured fibula and severely strained left ankle ligaments, but his knee sustained no damage. He will have surgery to repair the ligaments (the more serious of the two injuries), which could include the insertion of a screw into his ankle. That could come in about a week, and recovery usually takes around two months - all of which is to say that the timeline suggests a reasonable possibility he could return this season. That would obviously be a huge break for the Giants.
prist14
5/26
Is it possible that Kung Fu Panda will see some time behind the plate when he comes off the DL next month?
jjaffe
5/26
I'm going to put that one at absolutely zero chance impossible no way Jose.

Having lost one of their best hitters to injury in the line of catching duty, do you think for a moment the Giants would entertain the thought of potentially losing another, particularly one who a) has already missed significant time due to injury; and b) has caught just three MLB games over the past 2+ seasons and is probably rusty?

It's a fun thought to entertain, but I just don't see him donning the tools of ignorance again unless it's an emergency catcher situation.
trhoads66
5/27
One of the best covers ever...
raef12
5/27
An educated guess:

Cousins, a 5th outfielder trying to justify his spot in the major leagues, figures the throw is going to beat him. He probably decided (a split-second decision), "I'm going to have to bowl him over to score."

I think he anticipated Posey being in full on block position. So instead of aiming himself at home plate, he aimed himself at Posey.

I have played just enough ball (and relatively speaking, I'm a 5th outfielder trying to justify my spot) that I think I can guess what Cousins was doing because I have done it myself. Though not quite with that much force. He thought he was going to have to run over Posey, so that's what he did, even though he probably didn't have to.

It sucks for Posey, and maybe it shouldn't be a legal play, but I sort of feel bad for Cousins, too. I don't think he made a dirty play. I think he made a mistake.
TonyRiha
5/27
Why not Ryan Hanigan? Dusty treasures RHernandez's experience and Mesaroca appears ready to step up and move into the support/OJT role...
jjaffe
5/27
The Reds are getting more offense from catcher than all but two teams in the NL, with the Hanigan/Hernandez tandem hitting .296/.367/.455. After Joey Votto, it's the second most productive position in the lineup relative to the league averages. I'm not sure why the Reds would want to give that up unless the Giants can fulfill a glaring need of theirs.
rawagman
5/27
I actually thought about Hernandez as a possibility here. While the Reds are getting great production from the catching spot, Hanigan is signed to a 4-year-deal, while Hernandez is an impending free agent, very unlikely to be brought back, as the Reds have Devin Mesoraco doing very well at AAA. They also have Yasmani Grandal behind him, tearing things up in the Cal League.

I think, especially if the Giants have reason to believe that Posey could return in August/September, that they call up Jackson Williams from AAA Fresno. A former first round pick, Williams was long seen as an elite-type defensive catcher who couldn't hit a lick. Right now he is OPS'ing .684 in the PCL with zero power but some patience (11/18 BB/K ratio). He's not on the 40-man, but the Giants will never have another chance to see what they have here.
TonyRiha
5/28
Reds fans love Hanigan's all-around game. Dusty is on record though as not viewing Hanigan as an RBI guy (goes back to rookie season). Dusty much prefers the Hernandez grit and experience - which is Dusty's right. Jocketty as well if you note the Edmonds/Renteria signings.

I'm not saying it's correct thinking; but that element of decision making is still a factor in MLB.
Agent007
5/27
A good catcher is supposed to block the plate, if possible, running the risk of being bowled over. Catchers who are afraid to block the plate (most of them) don't deserve to be catchers. If we're going to change the rule on that play, let's switch to nerf balls too, so that nobody gets hurt when the ball hits him.
UtahDave
5/27
Re:igjarjuk at 16:01.

I don't think that under the present rules as well as enforcement of them (such as they both are)that we "shouldn't be in this position". And perhaps I have misinterpreted your meaning. That is the very reason we are in this position. It also seems like there's a lot of energy being spent trying to decide who to "blame" for this unfortunate outcome. I also think that is pointless. It was just a bad consequence to a hard play. Middle infielders get hurt turning double plays. Jorge Posada caught a ball in his face a few years back trying to break up a DP vs the Angels. Remember that? Outfielders run into fences and get hurt trying to catch baseballs. To a degree this is an occupational hazard.

But I also don't think we have to go all neanderthal and say "suck it up it's just part of the game". I do think this event has provided an opportunity to step back and see if there is a way we can improve the rules that both protect players, while not reducing the competitiveness of the game.

Apologies to Giants fans - I also have to ask if the player injured was Henry Blanco (or pick your favorite substandard backstop)instead of Buster Posey, would it be getting this kind of attention?