If you are a prospect hound, the last week has made some sort of live baseball package a must. On Thursday, the Royals called up Eric Hosmer, arguably the best hitting prospect at the upper levels. On Saturday, the Braves called up Julio Teheran, arguably the best pitching prospect at the upper levels. On Sunday, the Red Sox promoted Jose Iglesias, the best defensive shortstop in the minors.
The Teheran and Iglesias promotions require little analysis. Teheran's start against the Phillies on Saturday was the product of a doubleheader and the fact that his turn was up in the Triple-A rotation. Iglesias is just a temporary fill-in for the injured Marco Scutaro, and is present to provide late-inning defense and speed off the bench. Hosmer is a different story. He's not only in Kansas City far earlier than expected, but he's presumably here to stay. But was the timing of the move a sound decision by the Royals or something they will regret down the road?
Let's gets the easy part out of the way: There's little argument that Hosmer is ready to perform at the major-league level. After all, his batting line of .439/.535/.583 in 26 games for Triple-A Omaha looks like something out of the college game before they deadened the bats. This isn't about talent; it's about the mirage of a hot start, winning environments and, of course, money.
I'll admit that I got caught up in the excitement myself. Within 24 hours of Hosmer's arrival at Kauffman Stadium, I did two radio shows in Kansas City, and both times I praised the move and talked about the beginning of a new era in Royals baseball. But wisdom may have come with time, and now I'm thinking that's all a bunch of hogwash.
Last week, I discussed the how the Indians’ hot start had affected their philosophies about bringing up young players this year. The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds backed up their excitement, with Cleveland’s surprising April bolstering their chances of reaching the postseason more than ten-fold to greater than 30 percent. That's not the case with the Royals. While having a record above .500 might be an even bigger surprise than what Cleveland is doing, it hasn't moved the needle on the playoff odds, which pegged their chances of post-season baseball at 0.9 percent heading into Wednesday's games. For you folks that just blew your paycheck at Saturday's Kentucky Derby, that's a 111-to-1 longshot that one prospect, even one as good as Eric Hosmer, just can't change to something more realistic.
So why now? Why not wait until other big names at Triple-A, like third baseman Mike Moustakas, and left-handed starters Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery, were deemed ready? Clearly the struggles of Kila Ka'aihue played a role, but one front-office veteran questions the thought of throwing Hosmer to the wolves alone. “If I'm in the Royals front office, I'm fighting like hell to keep him down,” said the National League executive. “Why bring him up on a team whose big three are Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, and Jeff Francis? If they wanted to bring up Montgomery, Duffy, and all of those guys and let them take their collective lumps, then OK, I get it. Buy why just him when they have all these washed-up guys and limited playoff chances?”
Maybe the Royals don't believe the playoff odds, and that's fine. They see a surprising start, an American League Central division turned upside down, and a rare window of opportunity. Still, this is gravy to part of the master plan for long-term contention, and calling up Hosmer could impact the Royals’ financial flexibility down the road. The promotion does not change Hosmer's potential free agency when it crosses the six-year service time barrier, but assuming no radical changes in the upcoming CBA, it does likely make him a Super Two following the 2013 campaign. That's one less year of a cost-controlled star, and that year could be expensive.
Let’s assume for a moment that everything works out for the Royals, and the best system in baseball transforms them into a legitimately competitive team, unlike the early 2011 smoke-and-mirrors act. Let’s also assume that Hosmer is a big part of that success, quickly establishing himself as one of the best young hitters in the game. Now going into the 2014 season, the Royals are favorites to win the Central, and instead of having Hosmer under control, he's now subject to arbitration, and thus due a big pay day. The Royals don't have unlimited finances, and that multi-million deal that could have been avoided by waiting one more month three years ago suddenly limits the team in adding the pieces that might put them over the top. You still sure this was the right time for the Royals to unwrap their shiny new toy? Even if Hosmer is immediately great, say, a six-win player, that one month of impatience cost the team millions of dollars three years later for a single extra victory in a season where the odds say overwhelmingly that it just won't matter.
The only argument against this is the concept of the Royals following the lead of the early 1990s Indians teams that produced young players and then locked them up to long-term deals that bought out their arbitration and some free-agent years. On Saturday, I was discussing this via text messages with a veteran scout. After mentioning the thought of locking Hosmer up, I walked away from my phone, only to return to a series of messages, presented here with time stamps to preserve the humor.
20:17: Boras. Laughable. Keep reminding me of that. I need a good laugh.
20:20: I'm laughing again. Boras. Lock them up. Comical.
20:26: Hahaha. Laughing again. Boras. Long term. Lock them up. Awesome [expletive]!!!!!
21:11: Laughing again.
The Royals created plenty of excitement with Hosmer's ascension to the big leagues, and I'm the first to admit that I got caught up in it. Just a few days later, I'm wondering if the team will eventually have the same second thoughts that I'm bothered by.
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I also wonder if having Hosmer up now, learning to hit major league pitching, improves the Royals playoff chances in 2012. If so, it could still be worth the money. He clearly has little to learn in the minors.
Maybe that's money spent on a veteran who does enough to push the team to a division title. Or even gets them a World Series appearance.
Bottom line is the more money spent on the core players of the team during this period of predicted boom times is less money spent on supplementing that core. And without the supplements it will cost the team wins and potentially all the fans and merch sales that winning titles bring in.
Attendance and t shirt sales are the old reliables for justifying bad moves, and they just are rarely the case.
Betting on the next CBA is dangerous of course, but it was probably a factor in their decision.
Hosmer hiring Boras to represent him out of high school speaks to Hosmer's intent to be a "money first" player. However, it isn't factual to stay that Royals will not be able to lock up Hosmer because of Boras. If a long term deal that buys out his arbitration years and a few free agent years doesn't happen it will be because Hosmer doesn't want that type of deal. If however, Hosmer does want to entertain that possibility - and again, he likely doesn't because he hired Boras - then Boras will be no obstacle to Hosmer and the Royals having such a discussion.
Boras represents his clients' interests and there is nothing wrong with advising his clients to wait until free agency when waiting will be most financially rewarding. However, if he were to try and exert his will upon a player he would not have a client anymore.
I disagree thoroughly that all Boras clients are necessarily money-first guys. What I have heard from those players who are willing to talk about it is that the Boras Corp simply blew them away with its presentation, accessibility, facilities, etc., when making their pre-representation pitch. I have even heard one player state that "everybody else centers their entire presentation on why I shouldn't sign with Boras, instead of telling me what they were going to do for me."
A couple last thoughts: The Royals are looking at a ton of rookies coming up in the next two years. I don't think it's a bad idea for one (or more) of these guys to have a little bit of major league experience instead of all of them being thoroughly green at the same time. And don't forget, these guys will all likely hit their first arbitration year in the same year - something that has the potential to be financially more difficult for the Royals than paying Hosmer a year earlier than the others.
"Hosmer hiring Boras to represent him out of high school speaks to Hosmer's intent to be a "money first" player."
I think, from that comment, it's safe to assume that you view players who hire Boras as "money first."
:)
Also, text messages from scouts aren't facts. Though funny and convincing, those are no more credible than any other speculation. Particularly speculation about a Boras client. There will be a strong inclination to keep this team together if it is successful. And the fan base has already signaled that they are ready to support it. Things will play out, but it is wrong to think Hosmer will bolt the second he can.
UNLESS this is one of those 1973 NL East-type seasons where one team goes 83-79, and the bottom-dweller is only 11 games worse.
The Royals see the Indians off to a hot start, see that the Tribe's pitching can't possibly do what they are doing for another 4 months, see that the Twins are snakebit, the Tigers enigmatic and the WhiteSox offense is asleep, and maybe, just maybe, the difference between Kila and Hosmer is the 1-2 wins it might take to steal the division?
If they make the playoffs, then 2012 Season Tickets sales will be even better than they would have been with the expected promotions of Duffy, Myers, et. al.
But now that schedule is off because your best prospect, and your (probably) highest paid player is going to hit his huge payday a year earlier, which may shorten your window of opportunity. In return you have him producing in a year the Royals clearly have no chance to win a title.
The Royals weren't able to keep Carlos Beltran and there's no indication anything has changed in regards to holding onto players of that caliber now. The best plan would have been to keep Hosmer down as long as possible to maximize his productivity when the Royals can compete and before they lose him to his cost or free agency.
The uneducated think that the Greinke trade was simply more of the same, without understanding that it was something that had to happen for reasons that had nothing to do with money.
Who would have thought that SABR types would make an argument that would deny us the Junior Griffeys, ARods, CC Sabathia's of baseball? And we'll see fewer HoF careers.
Gee, Kevin, why don't you just call for bringing back Charlie Comiskey, Sam Breadon, and the Griffiths?
Anybody notice that the language is the same language of slavery, indentured servitude, and racism? Indeed, "keep 'em down." If that makes a scout or anyone else laugh....It makes me sick to my stomach. Move along to the Pat Robertson Club, Kevin.
RE: SABR types. I don't think Kevin mentioned whether the NL exec was a SABR type, so I don't quite follow how he (the person that inspired this line of thinking) gets lumped in with that group.
Leaving aside your gratuitous lumping of the unmitigated evils of slavery/indentured servitude/racism with a system which is *collectively bargained* between the owners and the players - unlike the Reserve Clause era of Comiskey, Griffith, Breadon - how are we going to see fewer Hall of Fame careers? I'm pretty damn sure that the rate at which players are voted in by the BBWAA 20-25 years down the road won't be affected by the difference in a month's service time. Did Buster Posey's chances at Cooperstown take a hit last summer?
That aside, if the scouty types feel that Hosmer has little to prove at the Triple-A level, then it would seem to me that the Royals made the right call by bringing Hosmer up. If nothing else, it rewards the fan base and could very well boost attendance by keeping the team competitive longer into the season, which would seem to be a worthwhile goal whose benefits might easily outweigh the few million dollars it costs to move Hosmer's arbitration clock forward.
2)I think in the big picture there is real, tangible value in staggering the arbitration/contract decisions. Say they do as your source said, and promote Hosmer+Moustakas+Montgomery+Duffy+Lamb all at once on June 1 of 2012. Come the 2015 offseason, if all those guys perform up to expectations (unlikely perhaps), the Royals could be looking at about a $50 million payroll increase in one offseason. No one (well, the Phillies I guess?) wants to deal with that.
Say further that the team's shown steady improvement those 3 years, winning 70, 75, then 83, putting them on the fringes of contention. The team looks promising but hasn't accomplished anything yet, and attendance has increased but they're far from selling out. Deciding who among them to keep/cut/trade would be both a nightmare and a shot in the dark -- what if they stop improving and the team is stuck in mediocrity? What if they become contenders but the fans don't show up?
By arranging things such that only 1-2 arbitration/contract decisions are made per year, each successive decision is made with more information about the shape the team is taking. If spending an extra $7.5 mil on Hosmer now helps avoid a $50 million mistake in a few years, it's absolutely worth it.
3)Like others have said, I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility of Hosmer (and perhaps Moose next year) getting Longoria'd. If the Royals offer Hosmer 8 yrs/$64 mil next week, even Boras couldn't in good conscience say that accepting it is not in the player's best interest.
-Hosmer up now
-Moose/one starter up in August, on 2012 Opening Day roster
-Other 2 starters up June 1, 2012
By doing that, they'll have brought these guys up more or less within one year of each other, but their arbitration clocks will be spread over 3 years if I'm calculating things right.
Ironhorse is totally rational and KG is the new Grand Wizard...
The only quasi-justification for the teams in supressing players' development is that this is the natural outgrowth of the incentive structure around super-twos. Because all parties recognize this, I'd be stunned if this is still around in the next CBA. In my view, the Royals are taking a calculated risk that the super-twos will not exist in the next CBA, and that was the primary determinant in calling up Hosmer four weeks earlier. (As others have pointed out, it makes no sense otherwise, and I had a hard time digesting all the various justifications that didn't center on this.) I commend the Royals for taking the risk; gutsy call.
The Royals are in a unique situation where they have virtually no shot to be competitive this season, but could be very good over the next 4-6 seasons if these prospects pan out. I think what Kevin and others are saying is that calling up Hosmer makes their master plan slightly more difficult to execute because Hosmer will be more expensive toward the end of that window.
I don't think anyone is suggesting that there aren't both costs and benefits to making this move. What's less clear is which will outweigh the other.
Incidentally, this is the first time I recall seeing a BP comment thread resemble some the inane ad hominem arguments usually found on articles posted on free sites.
So enjoy Hosmer in the bigs right now and, if the farm system is as good as advertised, look forward to more where he came from. If Boras advises Hosmer to use arbitration, and the kid gets to super two status and then free agency sooner than he might otherwise have done, so what? Money spent on this kid is money Dayton Moore can't piss away elsewhere. True, down the line not saving those millions may mean that they won't be able to keep them all and have to choose between Hosmer, Moustakis et al. They'll just have to cross that bridge when they come to it. A pleasant problem to look forward to.
Scott Boras, the agent for Eric Hosmer, told Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports Thursday that he has no immediate plans to discuss a long-term extension with the Royals.
Odd timing for the comments, considering Hosmer has played in just five major league games to this point. He's an exciting hitter and should do well for himself down the road financially, but this story can go into hibernation for a good two or three years.
Source: Jeff Passan on Twitter May 12, 11:20 PM
Hosmer: 2 wins over Kila
Duffy: 2 wins over 5th starter
Montgomery: 1 win over 4th starter
They also have a ton of payroll flexibility for a rental this year, so let's say they can pick up another win at the ASB.
The Playoff Odds currently have the team at 1.2 percent. Even if that's the case (and I suspect it is a bit low because it overstates the odds for the Sox and Twins), surely six additional wins boosts the Royals playoff chance up to, say, 15 to 20 percent. That seems worth it to go for it.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13875
Rany's system projects the Royals at 77 wins and the Indians winning the division with only 86 games...a nine game difference.