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May 5, 2011

BP Unfiltered

2011 Stats are Live

by Colin Wyers

We now have 2011 statistics on the player cards and sortables for batters and pitchers.

We’re going to be working to add functionality over the next few days (the most notable missing thing right now is our win expectancy based stats–they’re getting a bit more of an overhaul, but they should be back soon). And as with any computer software, there is always the potential for bugs. There is a saying that a lot of eyes make all bugs shallow, and there’s certainly a lot of you–as we hear from you about potential problems, we’ll tweak things as necessary to provide the best possible analysis to you.

As I’ve mentioned previously, we’ve been overhauling the entire back end that generates our statistics reports. For those of you that care–we’ve moved away from a tangled mass of Oracle SQL, FORTRAN code and a few other things into a MySQL database, with a little bit of scripting on the side.

So what does that mean for you (other than, of course, our tardiness in delivering the stats–for which we are deeply sorry)? Well, there are two things. One is that our stats do a much better job talking to each other now–this is how we’re able to have BRR featured in WARP, for instance. Now all of our park adjusted metrics use the same set of park adjustments, our replacement level metrics all use the same replacement level, etc. We’ve eliminated some redundancies–having Support Neutral Win-Loss and Expected Win-Loss at the same time was redundant and confusing, and the sort of thing we’ve strived greatly to avoid.

In fact, let’s use the new slimmed down set of support neutral stats as an example. We’ve eliminated the support-neutral value added tree of stats, which cuts down on our impressive alphabet soup problem. (The reason for this is that having a pitcher metric measuring wins above replacement player is why we have, uh, Wins Above Replacement Player–especially as we standardized the foundational elements like replacement level and the like, the two flavors of stats became even more superfluous.) We’ve standardized on one set of advanced win-loss records, Support Neutral Wins and Losses. And we have those old standbys, Quality Starts and Blown Quality Starts. We’ve also added a new, BP flavored twist to the idea with Fair Quality Starts, derived from Fair RA. Unlike traditional Quality Starts, these adjust for a pitcher’s level of defensive support. They also use a baseline that changes along with the seasonal run environment and the park where the game is played.

The other thing it does is it provides a foundation for us to build on–now that we have the initial labor of building the new platform out of the way, the time to deliver new content on that platform is dramatically reduced from what it was in the past. So we’ll be rolling out some new functionality as the season progresses, and I think you’ll be excited once we get to that point.

On a last note–I'd like to thank everyone at BP, especially Dave Pease, Rob McQuown and Kathy Woolner, for their hard work in getting this done. And I'd like to thank you for your continued support of Baseball Prospectus.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here

28 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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ncklm08

Very excited this is now live, Colin and nice job to you guys! Better late than never...

One bug I noticed: when creating "custom" reports for pitcher - team - season, the output stats are wildly incorrect. For instance, I show AJ Burnett has already started 12 games and has an 8-2 record.

May 05, 2011 11:49 AM
rating: 0
 
Luke

Yeah, even on the support neutral stats page referenced in the article there appears to be some sort of "doubling" happening.

There are no odd numbers anywhere and Jered Weaver is the owner of a striking 12-0 record.

May 05, 2011 13:19 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

Okay, that's strange - I'll look into it.

May 05, 2011 11:58 AM
 
newsense

Are you going to have minor league stats/ Translations?

May 05, 2011 12:33 PM
rating: 0
 
jlebeck66

I'd like to see the player code, or whatever's used as the primary key, to be available (especially on the minor league translations).

May 05, 2011 13:56 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Baseball Prospectus ID codes are now available. These are:

Batting reports: BATTER
Pitching reports: PITCHER
Baserunning report: RUNNER_ID

They have to be added as custom fields (i.e. they don't show up in any default reports).

May 05, 2011 17:05 PM
 
rosborne
(339)

I thought that the MLB_ID was going to be available for all players. Is that not the case?

May 09, 2011 20:00 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

We will have minor league translations, yes.

May 05, 2011 17:43 PM
 
ncklm08

Yes, "doubling" is a good way to describe it. Appears A.J. Burnett is 4-1, 6 GS, 36.2 IP thus far in reality. 8-2, 12 GS, and 73 IP is what the custom reports kick out.

May 05, 2011 13:36 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

What happened was that it wasn't flushing the previous run of the 2011 stats before running the nighly update process, thus leading to duplicate lines. It should be fixed now, but if you see any other problems, please let us know.

May 05, 2011 14:03 PM
 
Ben Solow

Just a heads up, but I think the doubling problem is still happening on the support neutral pitching stats report (I checked one of the batter's reports, it didn't seem to be an issue there). Dan Haren, for example, is listed with 12 quality starts (and there is nary an odd number in the Fair_QS column, among others).

May 06, 2011 05:49 AM
rating: 0
 
adecker31

Really impressed. Worth the wait.

May 05, 2011 18:37 PM
rating: 0
 
evo34

Would love to see the old True Average report available again. It was the best way to see at a glance how each team's hitters were performing. The new format has the same information but much more difficult to browse at a glance.

May 05, 2011 21:45 PM
rating: 1
 
SC

Wow, this is terrific value added for our subscription, specifically the minor league translations. Great work, BP has seen a lot of changes in the writing staff in recent years, it's wonderful to know that the core product continues improving.

May 05, 2011 22:41 PM
rating: 0
 
strickland

Will Postseason Odds reappear soon?

May 06, 2011 06:18 AM
rating: 0
 
cbirkemeier

Click on PS Odds at the top of this page

May 06, 2011 10:05 AM
rating: 0
 
funkland

Presumably the splits are coming. Will we be able to grab splits for our team tracker teams? That would be a very useful feature.

May 06, 2011 07:37 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

As a Strat-O-Matic player, know that I agree with you, and will keep it as a priority. It's on the queue, but no promises on a date yet, sorry.

May 06, 2011 09:53 AM
 
funkland

Thanks Rob....my keeper SOM league is precisely why I want that feature.

May 06, 2011 10:05 AM
rating: 1
 
sldeck

very basic question -- I can't seem to find BABIP for hitters in any of the sorts. I'm sure they're right in front of my nose somewhere.....

May 06, 2011 12:24 PM
rating: 0
 
strickland

Thanks very much birkem3. Missed that link.

May 06, 2011 12:39 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

Thanks for getting these up. One bug I have found, if I try to add TEAM to the Pitcher reports (ex. Pitcher Season report) the result is no output.

May 06, 2011 21:43 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

Doh! Not a bug, but a feature ... now I get it. I actually want applaud the addition of "season" stats. It used to be a pain to figure out full-season stats for players who changed teams during the course of the year, and now you are doing it for us. Thanks!

May 06, 2011 21:50 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

At the risk of making a fool of myself again, I'm curious about the VORP and WARP being reported for pitchers.

For example, Roy Halladay with a 2.19 ERA and 2.37 SIERA over 53.3 IPs, has accumulated 6.6 VORP and 0.7 WARP so far. This seems quite low for a pitcher who has been fairly dominant so far. A similar case could be made for Jered Weaver, Dan haren, Josh Johnson, etc.

Is there something amiss in these statistics, or do I just not understand the value of starting pitching relative to batters?

May 06, 2011 22:36 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

There's something amiss - the process that computes Fair RA (and Fair IP, the two primary inputs to WARP) wasn't updating properly, so it was missing out on some recent games. I'm rebuilding the pitching stats now and will have updated Fair RA/WARP up on the site soon.

May 07, 2011 08:48 AM
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

This is fixed now.

May 07, 2011 09:56 AM
 
Bucsin07

Everything looks great! Well worth the wait. One question:

Previously, you could get a run-down of team stats by clicking "Audit Team." Those don't seem to be available now.

...or am I missing something?

May 08, 2011 08:32 AM
rating: 0
 
Michael
(736)

So, if SNLVAR was redundant, then where is a seasonal measure of a pitcher's performance that adjusts for sequencing & clustering, quality of batters faced, and park effects?

Oct 04, 2011 09:40 AM
rating: 0
 
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Fantasy Focus: Back in... (05/04)
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BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (05/04)
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The BP Broadside: Eigh... (05/05)

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