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April 26, 2011

Fantasy Beat

Tout Wars FAAB Update 4/25

by Jason Collette

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There was baseball last week, meaning there were also injuries that need dealing with. Neftali Feliz hits the disabled list with a sore shoulder, meaning fantasy owners everywhere are trying to figure out which reliever Ron Washington will mismanage next. Victor Martinez also hit the DL thanks to his groin. What other moves did the Tout Wars experts make this week? Let us begin by looking into the mixed league.

Mixed

Charlie Wiegert purchases Josh Tomlin ($0): Tomlin is already 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA thanks to an 87 percent LOB rate and a .182 BABIP. This kind of pick-up in a mixed league is dangerous, as Tomlin can only regress from here: he already has a low K/9 of 5.0 and his home run rate is at 1.0, so regression will not be pretty. I would rather pick up a guy a week early than a week late, but I fear this is move is one week too late.

Scott Swanay purchases Randy Wolf ($4), Omar Infante ($10): Wolf has a strong 8.5 K/9 and a low 2.4 walk rate, and still has a 2.64 ERA despite 1.5 home runs per nine. Wolf is simply too talented of a pitcher to be found in the free agent pool of a 15 team mixed league. Infante can be played everywhere, but he is not doing much at the plate right now.

Seth Trachtman purchases John Jaso ($0) and Jason Marquis ($0): Marquis is still generating groundballs, but now he is stranding runners and is walking batters at a lower rate than ever before. His 3.55 ERA looks nice, but his 2.81 FIP looks stronger. Good move, Seth. Conversely, John Jaso has done very little good this season despite a home run last week, and has struggled behind the plate. Seth had no choice, as he has lost both Mauer and Victor Martinez in the past two weeks.

Paul Petera purchases Darren Oliver ($10) and Casey Blake ($10): Oliver should pick up some of the save opportunities vacated by Feliz, but there is no guarantee that he gets all of them. As I mentioned with Tomlin, a week early is better than a week late: Blake is off to a hot start but he will cool off. Petera is playing Blake at utility as he waits for Corey Hart to come off the disabled list this week.

Erick Mack purchases Bartolo Colon ($0): Big Fat Bartolo Colon makes his way onto both an AL roster and a mixed roster–is this 2005? The sample size is small, but Colon looks good, and this is no longer a laughing matter.

J.P. Kastner purchases Jake Arrieta ($2) and Rick Ankiel ($0): J.P. was the unfortunate Feliz owner, but he did not go heavy into the replacement bidding, going after Arrieta instead (who has been better compared to last season’s wildness). Ankiel was needed to fill the hole left by Logan Morrison’s Lisfranc issue.

Fred Zinkie purchases Kosuke Fukudome ($2) and Pat Burrell ($0): The only injury that Fred needed to replace was Jayson Nix, and he wanted to bench Chase Headley until his stats wake up. Burrell continues to enjoy hitting with a Giants uniform on, and is off to a good start in the run production area despite a career high strikeout rate. Fukudome is off to a scorching start with a .529 OBP and a .415 average that are more singles-driven than a Top 40 pop sensation—those sorts of things tend to come to a crashing halt rather quickly, assuming you aren’t Ichiro.

Nando DiFino purchases Brandon Wood ($1): Unlike Bartolo Colon, Wood is still a laughing joke, and I say this as the guy who owns him in the AL league. The funny thing now is that Wood is owned in all three leagues, but the early returns are there as he hit a two-run double last night, getting two more RBI for his new owners than he had for me this season as an AL hitter.

Tim Heaney purchases Kevin Correia ($2): This is a risky purchase because Correia’s K/9 is 3.8 and a .246 BABIP has helped him keep his ERA at 3.48. His FIP and xFIP are messier, and with the Pirates defense behind him, Correia becomes a matchup start—Heaney put him in the lineup over the struggling Ryan Dempster and Edwin Jackson.

Derek Carty purchases Daniel Murhpy ($0): Murphy becomes the latest flavor du jour at second base since the Mets cut bait with Brad Emaus rather quickly. If he can pull off the double-digit homer runs as he did in 2009, then he would be a stellar FAAB pickup.

NL-only

Mike Gianella purchases Ramon Ramirez ($3): Ramirez is off to a good start in relief and has already vultured a win and a save—Brian Wilson is off to a less than stellar start, so there could be more opportunities for Ramirez.

Phil Hertz purchases Justin Turner ($7), Jason Pridie ($9), and Brandon Wood ($7): Hertz has already lost Rafael Furcal and Morrison this season, so he needed to plug some holes. He now joins myself and E-Mack in the Brandon Wood experience. I hope it works out for him, because the other two moves have less upside (and, as I said, I have Brandon Wood, too).

Peter Kreutzer purchases Craig Counsell ($1): Peter was carrying Juan Francisco, on his roster so he needed to find someone that could get a few at bats—that modest goal was accomplished.

Chris Liss purchases Brooks Conrad ($1): Chris had no choice with both Mat Gamel and Scott Rolen unusable at present.

Lenny Melnick & Paul Greco purchase Jeff Karstens ($6): Karstens is striking out 7.9 per nine, but that is where the good news ends. He has a 1/7 HR/9 rate, and his 3.94 ERA is fueled by a 85 percent LOB rate. The guys needed something to replace Jose Contreras on their roster, who is the latest victim of Philly’s closer injury-go-round.

Nate Ravitz purchases Mike Nickeas ($0): Nate has enjoyed Ryan Hanigan, but his second catcher has not been so hot, and Nickeas is the next member of the revolving door at his second catcher spot.

Steve Gardner purchases Jose Morales ($0): Gardner needed to replace John Baker. When in doubt, grab the catcher in Colorado.

Brian Walton purchases Jeremy Hermida ($0), Fernando Salas ($0) and Brandon Boggs ($0): It is hard to believe that Hermida was once a top five prospect, and just as hard to believe that Brandon Boggs once kept Nelson Cruz down in Triple-A in Texas. Salas was about the only guy left in the St. Louis pen.

Scott Wilderman purchases Reed Johnson ($3): Scott needed someone to replace Ian Stewart after his demotion to Triple-A, and Johnson has made the most of his limited playing time.

Rob Leibowitz purchases Matt Stairs ($0): Rob lost Angel Pagan, and Trayvon Robinson still has not been called up, so Rob picks up the guy that looks like a hockey goalie in the middle of hockey playoff season. I do not know which is more surprising: Colon being on a roster again or Stairs still being in the major leagues at this point.

AL-only

Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton purchase Darren Oliver ($14) and Robert Andino ($2): Rick and Glenn continue to patiently wait for Evan Longoria to come back, and they also own Carlos Guillen, so some roster shuffling left them with a hole at MI that only Andino could fill.

Mike Siano purchases Brad Ziegler ($0) and Francisco Cervelli ($0): Mike is waiting for Kendrys Morales to get back and for Detroit to finally recall Scott Sizemore. Meanwhile, Travis Buck was DL’d, so Siano stayed with his Yankees and picked up Cervelli to play utility. He also picked up Ziegler and cut his bullpen mate Jerry Blevins to make it work.

Matthew Berry purchases Louis Coleman ($0) and Vinny Pestano ($0): The acquisition of Coleman is my favorite one of the week (and the most frustrating one for me because in all the haste of Easter weekend, I forgot to submit my bid). Coleman has been a strikeout machine in the Royals’ farm system and could be a very nice help for punch outs here in middle relief. Berry all but said he was going to bid on Coleman on his podcast last week, and Tout was the only league that I forgot to submit my Coleman bid in—ugh. Pestano has been another solid strikeout guy in relief for the Indians in the minors and even has some saves experience. Octavio Dotel and Dan Wheeler have not worked out too well, so plugging these high upside relievers in is a very smart play.

Ron Shandler purchases Eric Hosmer ($1) and Alex Torres ($1): Ron sacrificed this week for some future and now has Jesus Montero, J.P. Howell, and these two top prospects for his reserve list. Torres will be the first guy the Rays recall should Jeff Niemann need to hit the DL with some malady or another, and Hosmer is all but assured to be recalled sometime this summer by the Royals once the club is far enough past the Super Two date.

Lawr Michaels purchases Carlos Peguero ($7) and Cody Eppley ($10): Peguero has hit 56 home runs in the minors since the start of the 2009 season but has struck out far too often. A 10 percent walk rate has helped him keep his OBP over .340, though. Eppley looks a lot like Darren O’Day on the mound and has some solid ROOGY potential.

Jeff Erickson purchases Lou Marson ($0) and Arthur Rhodes ($5): Erickson needed to replace V-Mart in his lineup, and also went for the other half of the saves speculation in Texas by grabbing Rhodes. 

Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  Blake Wood,  Jeff Karstens

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