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April 14, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 4/14

by John Perrotto

 

The Braves were the historic first-ever Pick of the Day loser on Wednesday night but that doesn't prevent us from making them the POTD again on Thursday night.

I'll go with the Braves and Brandon Beachy -120 over the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco. Beachy has yet to win in five major-league starts despite a 3.33 ERA and it says here that he is due for good fortune. Despite the Marlins' victory on Wednesday, they have lost 44 of their last 66 games at Turner Field. Go with the Braves to -260.

Our second of three picks for Thursday is the Athletics and Gio Gonzalez -155 over the Tigers and Phil Coke. Gonzalez had had quality starts in each of his last seven outings at home in the Coliseum. Furthermore, the Tigers are 18-39 in their last 57 road games, dating to last season. Go with the A's to -215.

The last pick is the Rays and Wade Davis -125 over the Twins and Carl Pavano. The Rays seemed to get on track in their rain-shortened two-game sweep over the Red at Fenway Park earlier this week while the Twins can't seem to gain any traction in the early part of the season. Go with the Rays to -135.

Depending on line movement, there are two other potential plays: the Brewers and Randy Wolf over the Pirates and Paul Maholm at -115 or less, and the Royals and Bruce Chen over the Mariners and Doug Fister at -130 or less.

Wednesday's plays went 3-4 for -87 units. In addition the Braves -125 over the Marlins, the others losers were the Rangers +116 over the Tigers, the White Sox -120 over the Athletics,  and the Indians +132 over the Angels. The winners were the Royals +155 over the Twins, the Padres +103 over the Reds and the Cubs -110 over the Astros.

Season record: 36-37 (.493)

Units: -365

Pick of the Day: 2-1

Units: +90

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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jamin67038

I've noticed that a lot of the 'depending on line movement' picks actually come in under the line you've set. Why not add the ones that do to your total? It seems like they've done pretty well- this week, your 'line movement' picks are 4-2.

Apr 14, 2011 07:25 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

You think the Braves have a 72% chance to beat the Marlins? That seems very optimistic, and surprising that the bookmakers would get this so badly wrong.

Apr 14, 2011 07:32 AM
rating: 1
 
BrownianNotion

I've been thinking the same type of things about some of the "I'll take ____ until the line is ____" statements. "A solid underdog play" will be taken "until the line is -160." I'm just glad to see I'm not alone.

Apr 14, 2011 07:44 AM
rating: 0
 
evo34

I'd prefer to see more analysis in this type of column. I think if one is going to offer a column with betting picks at BP, it should try to find a quantitative edge instead of saying a certain pitcher is "due" for a win, or that a certain team is abnormally poor on the road, based on last 50 games (negligible sample). Personally, I have profited from betting against this kind of mentality. Most trend-type observations are pure noise in baseball -- whether it's a pitcher doing really well for 2 years in day games, or a team going winless in its last 10 games vs. a certain opponent.

Apr 14, 2011 21:57 PM
rating: 0
 
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Premium Article Collateral Damage: Ham... (04/13)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/14)
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BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/15)
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