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April 13, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 4/13

by John Perrotto

The National League East presents a premier pitching matchup Wednesday night when the Marlins and Josh Johnson and visit the Braves and Tim Hudson. While it's hard to pick against Johnson, two trends favor the Braves. They are 53-25 in their last 78 home games at Turner Field, dating to last season, and Hudson is 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 19 career starts against the Marlins. With the opening odds quite reasonable, I'll go with the Braves at -135 as the Pick of the Day and take them up to -215.

In all, we have seven picks for Wednesday and our second choice is the Padres and Tim Stauffer -101 over the Reds and Travis Wood. The Padres have won 10 of their last 15 games against the Reds, including six of their last nine at Petco Park. I'd go with the Padres to -155.

I'll take the Indians and Carlos Carrasco +145 over the Angels and Ervin Santana. The Indians have had great success against Santana as he is 0-6 with a 5.14 ERA in nine career starts against them. I'll go with the Indians to -155.

Let's keep riding the Rangers and go with them and spot starter Dave Bush +120 over the Tigers and Max Scherzer. Bush made a good impression in spring training and I'll go with the Rangers to -150.

I'll do an about face on a pick I had on Tuesday that was rained out and now go with the Rockies and Esmil Rogers -101 over the Mets and Jon Niese. The Rockies have won seven of eight since losing on Opening Day and I happened to catch Rogers' last start in Pittsburgh last Thursday when he was dominating. I'll go with the Rockies to -130.

We'll take the White Sox and John Danks -120 over the Athletics and Brett Anderson. While Anderson is one of the best young pitchers in the game, he hasn't much luck on the road. The Athletics have lost six of Anderson's eight starts away from home, dating to last season, though he has posted quality starts in five outings. I would go no higher than -120, though.

Finally, we'll go with the Royals and Kyle Davies +155 over the Twins and Francisco Liriano. This pick is predicated more on banking on Liriano to implode than endorsing Davies. I'd go with the Royals to -120.

Depending on line movement, there are three other potential picks: the Blue Jays and Kyle Drabek over the Mariners and Jason Vargas at -125 or less, the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano over the Astros and Wandy Rodriguez at -110 or less, and the Diamondbacks and Ian Kennedy over the Cardinals and Jake Westbrook at -130 or less.

The Pick of the Day went to 2-0 on Wednesday as the Giants -180 over the Dodgers was a winner. However, we were just 3-5 and -191 overall for the day. The other winners were the Rays +163 over the Red Sox and the Diamondbacks +135 over the Cardinals while the losers were the Rangers -150 over the Tigers, the Phillies -139 over the Nationals, the Cubs +122 over the Astros, the Royals +135 over the Twins and the Blue Jays -127 over the Mariners.

Season record: 33-33 (.500)

Units: -278

Pick of the Day: 2-0

Units: +215

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

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<< Previous Article
Prospects Will Break Y... (04/12)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Pitchin... (04/13)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/14)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: A Pletho... (04/13)

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