Many people have written to me about
the article comparing the Japanese leagues to the American majors.
Before looking at DTs of Japanese players, I’d like to address a few points common to many of those e-mails:
- Confusion over statistics. The statistic used in the article was Equivalent Average, not batting average. EqA values may
look like AVG, but they incorporate walks, power, and base-stealing in a way that correlates very well with runs scored–better, in
fact, than OPS does. The multipliers I gave out were multipliers for EqA, not for runs. I apologize for the lack of clarity on these
matters. - Offers of help from several BP readers in Asia. These have already filled in my missing 1996 data and may allow me to get
stats from the Korean and Taiwanese professional leagues. Thank you very, very much. - The "homesickness factor." The most common critique was that I had neglected to consider that the cultural
adjustment to living in Japan affected playing ability, making players coming from the United States look worse than expected, and
consequently making the Japanese leagues look stronger than they actually were.I ran two different studies to try and isolate that, and it does appear that there is something to it: perhaps the "real"
quality multiplier should be between .92 and .93 instead of .94. The first study simply split the one-year differences into those
going from the U.S. to Japan, and those going from Japan to the U.S., all of whom, until 2001, were returning to Western Hemisphere
ball, and who, presumably, would not need extensive re-adjustment to American baseball. The homesickness effect should mean a higher
difficulty rating for the US->JP group than the JP->US group, because they would have (real difference + adjustment) while the
latter would only have (real difference).The multiplier for players going from the U.S. to Japan was .942 in 28,766 common plate appearances, while the multiplier for those
going from Japan to the U.S. is .932 in a still-sizable 13,509 CPA, for a one-point difference in the results.The second study used two-year differences to rate league difficulty, for example, between players in the U.S. in 1999 and in Japan
in 2001. That group was then split depending upon whether they spent the 2000 season in Japan or the U.S., hypothesizing that the
adjustment factor would diminish or disappear after a full season spent in Japan. If adjustment is an issue, than players who go
US-US-JP should make the Japanese leagues look better than those who went US-JP-JP, when the first and last years are compared. They
do: the players in their first year in Japan drew a .922 rating, compared to .902 for those repeating Japan–a two-point difference.So it may well be that the .94 rating I gave to Japanese leagues is slightly higher than it should be, but I do want to emphasize
"slight." I am still certain it is well above the .86 rating of Triple-A. Dropping a point or two, to .92 or .93, still
leaves them right on the cusp of historical major-league strength, although possibly more on the short side of the cusp than they
were before.
So who are some of the best hitters and pitchers in Japan over the last few years?
Let’s start with the reigning American League MVP and batting champ, Ichiro Suzuki. If I’m right about the level of play in
Japan, then he had a bad year in 2001:
Ichiro Suzuki Age 28
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1994 Orix JpP 540 202 41 4 14 44 47 108 51 26 6 344 .374 .433 .543 .326 104 61 360
1995 Orix JpP 547 195 27 4 29 65 45 120 91 46 9 361 .356 .442 .580 .339 121 75 362
1997 Orix JpP 536 184 31 4 19 55 34 97 92 32 4 356 .343 .408 .522 .314 98 53 326
1998 Orix JpP 506 180 38 3 13 34 34 82 70 10 4 330 .356 .403 .520 .306 85 43 314
1999 Orix JpP 417 144 28 2 22 40 43 84 68 11 1 274 .345 .411 .580 .324 82 47 330
2000 Orix JpP 395 155 21 1 13 44 34 62 61 20 1 241 .392 .458 .549 .343 83 52 345
2001 Seattle AL 703 269 38 8 10 34 46 139 75 55 16 450 .383 .416 .502 .310 121 88 310 144-RF 3
Majors 620 237 34 7 9 30 41 123 66 49 14 450 .383 .421 .502 .310 106 78 310
Japan 593 214 38 4 22 57 48 112 87 29 5 1906 .360 .426 .548 .325 116 331 340
Total 598 218 37 4 20 52 46 114 83 33 7 2356 .365 .425 .539 .322 114 69 335
Ichiro’s .310 EqA last year was his second-worst since 1994. I think he changed his approach at the plate, concentrating on slapping
the ball around without attempting to drive it. He got a boost to his batting average, but lost all his power. It would not surprise
me at all to see him improve upon his MVP season. In another park, he’d have a realistic shot at hitting .400.
Sticking with the Pacific League, last year’s MVP was an American import who tied the Japanese home run record, Karl
"Tuffy" Rhodes:
Karl Rhodes Age 33
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Osa-Kint JpP 516 161 31 0 27 80 102 94 108 18 8 363 .312 .408 .529 .309 96 50 309
1998 Osa-Kint JpP 500 133 20 0 26 71 116 86 75 14 3 370 .266 .357 .462 .275 74 27 276
1999 Osa-Kint JpP 503 157 34 1 44 63 107 101 105 5 2 348 .312 .391 .646 .325 105 61 325
2000 Osa-Kint JpP 530 149 26 1 27 45 126 73 75 5 6 387 .281 .340 .487 .268 72 23 268
2001 Osa-Kint JpP 560 190 25 0 53 72 127 139 131 9 3 373 .339 .415 .668 .339 125 77 338
Japan 577 175 30 0 39 73 128 109 109 11 5 1841 .303 .383 .560 .305 104 238 304
In 1993, Rhodes split a .291 EqA while playing for Omaha (Double-A), Iowa (Triple-A), and the Cubs, easily his best American season.
The average of these seasons isn’t out of line for a player who had that level of talent at age 24, but the peaks are better than
you’d expect.
Nobuhiko Matsunaka Age 28
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Fukuoka JpP 43 10 1 0 0 2 12 5 5 0 1 34 .233 .282 .256 .183 2 -2 179
1998 Fukuoka JpP 72 20 3 0 4 9 12 9 11 2 0 52 .278 .365 .486 .286 11 5 288
1999 Fukuoka JpP 403 113 22 4 25 42 56 63 74 5 2 292 .280 .365 .541 .293 68 31 293
2000 Fukuoka JpP 477 154 24 1 36 44 46 66 91 0 1 324 .323 .387 .604 .315 90 49 315
2001 Fukuoka JpP 485 166 30 0 35 48 70 81 121 2 1 320 .342 .402 .621 .324 96 55 324
Japan 592 185 32 2 40 58 78 90 121 4 2 1022 .313 .382 .576 .308 107 138 307
A third baseman, and the league MVP in 2000. Nobuhiko Matsunaka played in the Hawaiian Winter League in 1997 as a teammate of
Terrence Long and Michael Barrett, and for the Japanese Olympic team in 1996 and 2000.
Alex Cabrera Age 30
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
2000 El Paso Tex 205 62 13 1 22 16 52 36 48 2 1 144 .302 .356 .698 .321 42 32 322 52-1B 4
2000 Tucson PCL 77 19 5 1 3 3 18 14 9 0 0 58 .247 .288 .455 .241 8 1 242
2000 Arizona NL 81 21 3 1 5 2 19 10 14 0 0 60 .259 .285 .506 .253 10 4 252 12-1B 1
2001 Seibu JpP 519 149 25 0 47 73 136 95 121 3 1 371 .287 .375 .607 .310 99 52 310
Majors 81 21 3 1 5 2 19 10 14 0 0 60 .259 .292 .506 .253 10 4 252
Minors 609 175 39 4 54 41 130 108 123 4 2 202 .287 .332 .631 .301 101 46 299
Japan 570 164 27 0 52 80 149 104 133 3 1 371 .287 .375 .607 .310 109 52 310
Total 602 162 30 2 43 48 116 72 92 5 2 1076 .270 .327 .540 .278 90 38 278
Alex Cabrera followed up a monstrous seasons in the U.S. minors by having one more just like it in Japan.
Kazuo Matsui Age 26
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Seibu JpP 578 182 26 12 9 38 84 94 65 51 16 412 .315 .360 .448 .275 82 30 276
1998 Seibu JpP 578 183 39 5 10 45 86 95 59 39 13 408 .317 .367 .453 .278 83 31 277
1999 Seibu JpP 549 186 32 4 16 50 70 93 69 30 7 370 .339 .394 .499 .301 92 45 301
2000 Seibu JpP 554 182 41 10 25 33 56 84 75 24 3 375 .329 .368 .574 .307 98 50 307
2001 Seibu JpP 556 174 33 2 22 37 75 94 75 25 9 391 .313 .356 .498 .281 82 32 281
Japan 606 195 37 7 18 44 80 99 74 36 10 1956 .322 .369 .494 .288 94 188 288
Kazuo Matsui is not quite the caliber of hitter as some of the other players listed here, but he’s a Gold Glove-caliber
shortstop. He is one of Japan’s fastest players and a switch-hitter, making him a likely leadoff man. He has expressed strong
interest in playing in the U.S., and will be a free agent in 2003.
Norihiro Nakamura Age 28
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Osa-Kint JpP 459 114 23 2 22 49 99 60 72 2 2 347 .248 .327 .451 .257 58 14 257
1998 Osa-Kint JpP 486 130 13 1 34 65 111 79 93 1 1 357 .267 .359 .508 .284 76 31 283
1999 Osa-Kint JpP 526 145 20 0 35 72 108 90 101 3 0 381 .276 .367 .513 .289 86 37 289
2000 Osa-Kint JpP 480 137 23 0 41 67 105 70 92 1 1 344 .285 .376 .590 .307 90 47 308
2001 Osa-Kint JpP 535 178 26 0 46 93 96 110 134 3 1 358 .333 .432 .639 .340 121 75 340
Japan 571 162 24 1 41 79 119 94 113 2 1 1787 .283 .374 .543 .297 99 204 297
Norihiro Nakamura, a four-time All-Star third baseman, is one of the league’s best power hitters.
Michihiro Ogasawara Age 28
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Nippon JpP 94 21 11 2 0 2 9 8 7 0 0 73 .223 .240 .383 .203 7 -2 209
1998 Nippon JpP 86 26 2 0 2 0 16 7 10 1 1 61 .302 .302 .395 .229 8 0 230
1999 Nippon JpP 551 158 34 4 26 49 78 94 82 3 4 397 .287 .345 .505 .275 79 29 274
2000 Nippon JpP 554 183 23 3 33 60 86 106 84 22 7 378 .330 .398 .561 .313 103 55 312
2001 Nippon JpP 570 186 40 2 28 52 92 101 79 1 0 384 .326 .383 .551 .303 97 48 303
Japan 597 185 35 4 29 53 91 102 84 9 4 1293 .309 .366 .525 .290 95 130 290
Michihiro Ogasawara is a two-time All-Star first baseman. Like Carlos Delgado, he is a converted catcher.
Frank Bolick Age 36
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Midland Tex 94 24 4 0 5 20 20 17 15 0 0 70 .255 .390 .457 .287 15 7 283
1997 Vancouvr PCL 359 101 23 2 14 37 66 48 51 3 1 259 .281 .350 .474 .272 50 17 272
1998 Vancouvr PCL 272 69 8 2 12 23 44 35 25 0 1 204 .254 .315 .430 .245 30 17 244 29-3B 8 14-LF -1
1998 Anaheim AL 45 8 2 0 1 11 7 3 2 0 0 37 .178 .339 .289 .228 5 0 230
1999 Chiba JpP 354 92 15 1 28 51 79 53 63 1 0 262 .260 .362 .545 .293 61 28 292
2000 Chiba JpP 437 135 29 2 31 84 86 67 86 3 1 303 .309 .424 .597 .329 94 56 329
2001 Chiba JpP 453 125 31 0 30 96 101 80 97 1 0 328 .276 .403 .543 .309 87 45 310
Majors 45 8 2 0 1 11 7 3 2 0 0 37 .178 .339 .289 .228 5 0 230
Minors 584 156 28 3 25 64 105 81 73 2 2 533 .267 .338 .454 .264 77 41 263
Japan 548 155 33 1 39 102 117 88 108 2 0 893 .283 .395 .560 .312 107 57 312
Total 560 154 31 2 34 90 112 84 94 2 1 1463 .275 .378 .518 .294 95 47 293
After an unimpressive U.S. career, Frank Bolick is clearly doing much better playing third base in Japan.
Kazuya Fukuura Age 26 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense 1997 Chiba JpP 219 64 8 1 7 16 34 30 24 0 1 156 .292 .349 .434 .260 27 7 260 1998 Chiba JpP 467 135 35 3 3 43 76 65 58 1 2 334 .289 .354 .396 .254 54 12 254 1999 Chiba JpP 260 75 15 1 4 18 35 23 37 0 0 185 .288 .344 .400 .251 29 6 252 2000 Chiba JpP 452 140 22 4 8 23 55 51 48 1 1 313 .310 .349 .429 .260 54 14 259 2001 Chiba JpP 450 154 32 5 15 49 67 79 63 0 0 296 .342 .407 .536 .310 79 41 311Japan 602 185 36 5 12 48 87 81 75 1 1 1284 .307 .364 .443 .270 79 80 270
Kazuya Fukuura is Chiba’s first baseman, playing opposite Bolick. He led the Pacific League in batting average last year. It
has the look of a fluke season, but his age means it’s possible that the season is a genuine breakout.
Hiroki Kokubo Age 30
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Fukuoka JpP 532 163 36 3 39 46 105 96 117 3 3 372 .306 .366 .605 .306 97 49 306
1998 Fukuoka JpP 72 17 4 1 2 2 18 8 11 0 0 55 .236 .266 .403 .219 6 -1 216
1999 Fukuoka JpP 475 119 26 1 27 56 96 66 82 4 2 358 .251 .332 .480 .266 65 20 266
2000 Fukuoka JpP 479 143 27 2 33 21 80 76 89 5 2 338 .299 .342 .570 .291 77 34 290
2001 Fukuoka JpP 542 162 32 2 43 52 88 108 123 6 2 382 .299 .360 .603 .304 97 49 304
Japan 599 172 36 3 41 51 110 101 120 5 3 1505 .288 .348 .561 .290 98 151 290
A third baseman converted from second base in the last few years, Hiroki Kokubo missed part of the 1998 season due to his
part in a tax-evasion scandal (he was sentenced to a year on prison), along with a shoulder injury.
Roberto Petagine Age 31
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Norfolk Int 448 134 25 1 28 71 84 79 85 0 1 315 .299 .402 .547 .310 84 44 312
1997 NY Mets NL 15 2 0 0 0 3 5 2 1 0 0 13 .133 .278 .133 .164 1 -1 158
1998 Indianap Int 365 111 23 1 21 58 67 68 91 2 1 255 .304 .403 .545 .310 68 43 310 68-1B 1 20-LF -1
1998 Cincnnti NL 63 16 3 1 3 16 10 15 7 1 0 47 .254 .405 .476 .300 12 9 304 10-RF 2
1999 Yakult JpC 445 131 22 2 38 108 95 89 99 9 1 315 .294 .439 .609 .339 105 65 340
2000 Yakult JpC 484 142 26 0 34 94 115 88 92 7 2 344 .293 .412 .558 .317 98 54 317
2001 Yakult JpC 472 147 25 0 40 114 84 95 128 4 1 326 .311 .445 .619 .342 111 70 342
Majors 523 121 20 7 20 127 101 114 54 7 0 60 .231 .381 .410 .278 80 54 281
Minors 561 169 33 1 34 89 104 101 121 1 1 570 .301 .397 .545 .310 105 60 311
Japan 530 159 28 1 42 120 111 103 121 8 2 985 .300 .429 .594 .333 119 71 333
Total 541 161 29 1 39 109 108 103 119 5 1 1615 .298 .420 .571 .323 113 67 323
The reigning MVP of the Central League, leading the league in home runs, RBI, and EQA, Roberto Petagine had a lot to do with
the Swallows (am I the only one who can’t say without at least thinking "beloved Swallows"? Longtime r.s.b readers will
know what I mean) winning the title last season. I was suspicious of his hitting improvement and the small dimensions of Jingu
Stadium, but 1) the park doesn’t show as being offense-friendly, and 2) he only hit 15 of his 39 home runs in 2001 there, one
less than expected given that 59 of his team’s 140 games were there.
Hideki Matsui Age 28
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Yomiuri JpC 485 135 16 0 35 90 86 91 98 8 3 353 .278 .396 .528 .304 90 45 304
1998 Yomiuri JpC 489 135 23 3 33 96 106 104 96 4 4 358 .276 .402 .538 .307 93 48 307
1999 Yomiuri JpC 465 129 25 2 36 86 103 93 84 0 4 340 .277 .392 .572 .308 89 46 307
2000 Yomiuri JpC 482 147 31 2 40 104 107 117 108 5 2 337 .305 .430 .627 .337 111 68 337
2001 Yomiuri JpC 483 151 25 4 33 112 91 106 99 3 1 333 .313 .442 .586 .334 108 65 334
Japan 540 157 27 2 40 110 111 115 109 4 3 1721 .290 .413 .570 .318 110 272 317
AKA "Godzilla," or "Big Matsui" in contrast to Kazuo, "Little Matsui." Hideki Matsui was one of
the most anticipated draft picks in Japanese history, and has lived up to the anticipation. For his consistency, I would name him
the best native hitter in Japan right now. He’s always had power, and has developed his other hitting skills to the point that he
led the league in batting average last season, and was the league MVP in 2002. While he plays center field for the Giants, he would
be a corner outfielder in the U.S. He’s a free agent after 2002, and while a number of U.S. teams are interested in him, he hasn’t
yet decided whether he wants to cross the Pacific.
Tomoaki Kanemoto Age 34
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Hiroshim JpC 464 130 17 2 30 71 107 74 77 11 9 343 .280 .378 .519 .291 78 35 291
1998 Hiroshim JpC 499 120 32 3 21 62 99 78 72 9 5 384 .240 .330 .443 .256 64 15 256
1999 Hiroshim JpC 494 131 22 2 29 65 96 78 83 9 3 366 .265 .354 .494 .279 75 29 279
2000 Hiroshim JpC 492 140 21 2 26 77 100 92 83 28 9 361 .285 .390 .494 .296 86 40 296
2001 Hiroshim JpC 481 147 27 2 26 122 65 104 95 19 7 341 .306 .446 .532 .326 103 60 326
Japan 559 154 27 3 30 91 107 98 94 17 8 1795 .275 .381 .496 .290 94 179 290
A left fielder for the Carp, Tomoaki Kanemoto has generally played second fiddle to teammate and center fielder Koichi
Ogata, although Ogata, who is a year younger, hasn’t aged nearly as well.
Leo Gomez Age 35
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Chunichi JpC 491 151 23 1 31 66 78 87 82 2 0 340 .308 .392 .548 .307 89 46 307
1998 Chunichi JpC 426 116 13 0 28 53 69 60 79 1 1 311 .272 .359 .500 .281 65 26 282
1999 Chunichi JpC 474 135 18 1 34 66 62 82 104 4 1 340 .285 .380 .542 .300 84 41 300
2000 Chunichi JpC 442 122 19 1 24 57 75 59 79 1 2 322 .276 .365 .486 .280 67 26 280
2001 Chunichi JpC 302 96 14 0 21 45 33 33 67 0 0 206 .318 .406 .573 .317 58 32 317
Japan 573 166 23 1 37 77 85 86 110 2 1 1519 .290 .379 .528 .296 97 171 296
Leo Gomez, the former Oriole and Cub, is still playing third base in Japan. His best seasons in the States were 1990, when he
hit for a .290 EqA as a 23-year-old in Rochester; 1992, when he hit .286 for the Orioles; and 1994, when he hit .295 for the Cubs.
For several years now he’s been the only offensive threat for a punchless Dragon team.
Atsuya Furuta Age 36
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Yakult JpC 509 156 30 2 9 60 66 73 84 8 4 357 .306 .390 .426 .279 73 28 279
1998 Yakult JpC 492 132 18 1 10 41 65 59 64 5 4 364 .268 .333 .370 .239 51 5 240
1999 Yakult JpC 477 133 27 2 11 47 43 75 64 9 3 347 .279 .347 .413 .257 58 14 259
2000 Yakult JpC 494 129 22 0 16 45 54 63 64 5 5 370 .261 .336 .403 .248 57 10 248
2001 Yakult JpC 446 142 20 0 17 40 39 61 68 1 0 304 .318 .374 .478 .283 65 26 283
Japan 593 170 29 1 15 57 65 81 84 7 4 1742 .286 .356 .417 .261 75 83 261
He’s past his prime, but Atsuya Furuta is one of Japan’s greatest active players. A seven-time Gold Glove catcher, he won the
MVP award twice (’93 and ’97). He’s also the president of the Japanese players’ union and a strong advocate of reform, such as
allowing players to use agents and reducing the current nine-year threshold for free agency.
Akira Eto Age 32
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Hiroshim JpC 393 92 13 3 25 73 95 76 71 3 0 301 .234 .358 .473 .277 61 23 278
1998 Hiroshim JpC 476 114 15 0 28 89 108 88 79 7 3 365 .239 .362 .447 .272 71 24 273
1999 Hiroshim JpC 430 113 27 3 23 70 83 75 69 8 3 320 .263 .369 .500 .287 71 30 287
2000 Yomiuri JpC 461 115 18 1 31 57 91 86 92 7 1 347 .249 .336 .495 .273 67 23 274
2001 Yomiuri JpC 486 131 20 2 29 68 68 86 85 9 3 358 .270 .359 .498 .281 75 30 282
Japan 561 141 23 2 34 89 111 103 99 8 2 1691 .252 .357 .483 .278 86 130 278
Akira Eto used to be the best defensive third baseman in the league, but after 12 seasons he is slowing down. The Yomiuri
Giants, who play in Tokyo, are sort of like the Yankees of Japan, the team with the grandest history and the most money right now.
Eto, a seven-time All-Star, was the premier free agent available two years ago, so of course the Giants got him.
Takuro Ishii Age 31
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Yokohama JpC 520 157 21 1 10 48 60 92 43 20 17 381 .302 .367 .404 .258 65 16 258
1998 Yokohama JpC 554 164 34 4 8 57 73 104 47 39 9 399 .296 .368 .415 .273 77 27 273
1999 Yokohama JpC 529 141 22 3 7 68 84 101 52 36 11 399 .267 .357 .359 .254 65 14 254
2000 Yokohama JpC 543 153 19 5 9 60 82 90 48 34 10 400 .282 .357 .385 .259 68 18 258
2001 Yokohama JpC 584 170 36 6 7 50 77 84 36 25 9 423 .291 .347 .409 .257 71 17 257
Japan 589 169 28 4 9 61 81 102 49 33 12 2001 .288 .359 .395 .260 75 92 260
Takuro Ishii is considered a good defensive shortstop, but not at the level of Little Matsui. However, he does have enough
speed and on-base ability to be a reasonable top-of-the-order man.
Kazuhiro Kiyohara Age 34
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Yomiuri JpC 464 110 21 0 31 55 156 64 92 0 0 354 .237 .330 .483 .266 64 20 266
1998 Yomiuri JpC 385 99 13 0 23 62 80 67 78 1 0 286 .257 .370 .470 .281 60 23 280
1999 Yomiuri JpC 261 56 11 0 12 43 71 37 42 0 0 205 .215 .346 .395 .253 33 7 253
2000 Yomiuri JpC 218 62 9 0 16 25 51 42 55 0 0 156 .284 .379 .546 .300 38 19 301
2001 Yomiuri JpC 468 132 24 0 30 60 133 66 119 0 0 336 .282 .364 .526 .289 75 33 289
Japan 572 146 25 0 36 78 156 88 123 0 0 1337 .256 .356 .486 .277 86 102 277
Kazuhiro Kiyohara is merely an average defensive first baseman. He suffered extensive injury problems in 1999 and 2000.
Tsuyoshi Shinjo Age 30
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1994 Hanshin JpC 470 117 26 7 17 25 97 57 69 7 5 358 .249 .296 .443 .241 51 6 259
1995 Hanshin JpC 315 71 16 3 7 20 77 35 38 5 4 248 .225 .281 .362 .215 27 -5 227
1997 Hanshin JpC 487 112 18 3 20 37 123 63 69 7 4 379 .230 .294 .402 .231 49 1 236
1998 Hanshin JpC 417 93 23 3 7 22 68 42 29 1 2 326 .223 .271 .343 .206 31 -10 208
1999 Hanshin JpC 468 113 21 8 12 22 75 52 54 8 2 357 .241 .289 .397 .229 45 0 230
2000 Hanshin JpC 513 139 23 1 27 33 92 72 85 15 5 379 .271 .316 .478 .261 66 18 260
2001 NY Mets NL 404 110 23 1 10 23 65 47 57 4 5 299 .272 .320 .408 .241 43 28 242 109-OF 9
Majors 404 110 23 1 10 23 65 47 57 4 5 299 .272 .328 .408 .241 43 28 241
Japan 613 148 29 6 21 37 122 74 79 10 5 2053 .241 .292 .408 .233 62 10 238
Total 614 151 30 5 20 36 119 73 80 9 5 2352 .245 .297 .408 .234 62 8 239
Tsuyoshi Shinjo wasn’t remotely among the best hitters in Japan prior to coming to the U.S., but was regarded as Japan’s best
center fielder defensively. It is notable for how closely his 2000 and 2001 seasons match, almost identical except for the extra 75
points of slugging in his last year in Japan.
So Taguchi Age 32
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out AVG OBP SLG EQA EQR Val Pk Defense
1997 Orix JpP 573 170 35 4 11 42 69 100 57 6 1 404 .297 .348 .429 .261 71 19 261
1998 Orix JpP 499 138 28 1 10 40 66 89 45 7 8 369 .277 .334 .397 .244 54 7 243
1999 Orix JpP 530 149 22 1 10 24 84 84 58 11 6 387 .281 .313 .383 .234 51 2 234
2000 Orix JpP 513 147 27 3 9 43 75 66 42 8 2 368 .287 .345 .404 .254 60 13 255
2001 Orix JpP 455 129 22 6 7 35 80 69 41 6 2 328 .284 .335 .404 .248 50 9 249
Japan 607 173 32 3 12 43 89 99 63 11 5 2464 .285 .336 .405 .249 68 69 249
Like Shinjo, So Taguchi is noted primarily as a defensive player, not as a hitter. The former teammate of Ichiro was signed
by the Cardinals this off-season, but is unlikely to be an impact player in the National League.
How about pitchers? Let’s start by looking back at some players who have already come over:
Hideo Nomo Age 33
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1994 Osa-Kint JPL 17 17 115.0 97 61 10 78 111 4.77 6 7 7.6 0.8 6.1 8.7 0.7 4.54 18
1995 LosAngls NL 28 28 192.3 130 59 16 73 212 2.76 15 6 6.1 0.7 3.4 9.9 1.5 3.15 36
1996 LosAngls NL 33 33 230.7 187 91 25 79 207 3.55 16 10 7.3 1.0 3.1 8.1 1.3 3.88 23
1997 LosAngls NL 33 33 207.7 201 107 26 83 201 4.64 11 12 8.7 1.1 3.6 8.7 1.2 4.80 21
1998 LosAngls NL 12 12 68.0 59 35 9 35 64 4.63 4 4 7.8 1.2 4.6 8.5 0.9 5.53 14
1998 NY Mets NL 17 16 90.3 76 47 12 51 82 4.68 5 5 7.6 1.2 5.1 8.2 0.8 5.14 10
1999 Milwauke NL 28 28 179.3 173 93 25 65 145 4.67 10 10 8.7 1.3 3.3 7.3 1.1 4.46 13
2000 Detroit AL 32 31 196.3 184 99 27 73 179 4.54 11 11 8.4 1.2 3.3 8.2 1.2 4.10 19
2001 Boston AL 33 33 201.3 171 93 24 91 209 4.16 12 10 7.6 1.1 4.1 9.3 1.1 4.29 25
Majors 216 214 1366.0 1181 624 164 550 1299 4.11 84 68 7.8 1.1 3.6 8.6 1.9 4.25 22
Japan 17 17 115.0 97 61 10 78 111 4.77 6 7 7.6 0.8 6.1 8.7 0.7 4.54 18
Totals 143 141 1510.7 1304 699 175 644 1429 4.16 92 77 7.8 1.0 3.8 8.5 1.8 4.25 22
I only have one year of Japanese data for Hideo Nomo (technically, I have Nomo’s stats for prior years, but not the league’s,
so I can’t run a DT). Except for walks, and the difference 2.5 walks per game makes on ERA, his overall performance has been
identical.
Hideki Irabu Age 33
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1994 Chiba JPL 27 26 209.0 173 85 18 86 211 3.66 14 9 7.4 0.8 3.7 9.1 1.2 3.38 31
1995 Chiba JPL 28 27 197.3 176 76 12 67 195 3.47 14 8 8.0 0.5 3.1 8.9 1.5 3.86 30
1997 Columbus Int 4 4 27.0 21 7 1 5 19 2.33 2 1 7.0 0.3 1.7 6.3 1.9 2.65 20
1997 NY Yanks AL 13 9 54.7 68 45 14 17 54 7.41 2 4 11.2 2.3 2.8 8.9 1.6 7.41 11
1998 NY Yanks AL 29 28 178.0 145 79 25 68 122 3.99 11 9 7.3 1.3 3.4 6.2 0.9 3.74 8
1999 NY Yanks AL 32 27 174.7 174 83 23 38 132 4.28 10 9 9.0 1.2 2.0 6.8 1.7 4.57 13
2000 Montreal NL 11 11 55.7 77 40 8 12 37 6.47 2 4 12.4 1.3 1.9 6.0 1.5 6.75 0
2001 Montreal NL 3 3 16.0 22 12 3 3 14 6.75 1 1 12.4 1.7 1.7 7.9 2.3 4.68 15
2001 Ottawa Int 4 4 22.0 24 13 3 8 14 5.32 1 1 9.8 1.2 3.3 5.7 0.9 6.27 -6
Majors 75 69 479.0 486 259 73 138 359 4.87 26 27 9.1 1.4 2.6 6.7 1.4 4.85 10
Minors 22 22 90.0 86 46 12 22 58 4.60 4 6 8.6 1.2 2.2 5.8 1.3 3.83 25
Japan 55 53 406.3 349 161 30 153 406 3.57 28 17 7.7 0.7 3.4 9.0 1.3 3.61 31
Totals 140 132 975.3 921 466 115 313 823 4.30 58 50 8.5 1.1 2.9 7.6 1.8 4.24 18
Hideki Irabu‘s performance has to be rated as a definite disappointment; I don’t think his velocity in America was as good as
advertised, and the results were definitely less. Of possible interest is his performance this winter, which translates as:
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF 2001 San PRL 12 12 65.0 58 25 6 16 48 3.46 4 3 8.0 0.8 2.2 6.6 1.5 3.19 17
I think the Rangers would be thrilled to get 25 starts halfway between those
numbers and his major league average.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa Age 33
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1994 Orix JPL 25 22 159.7 166 75 14 42 76 4.23 10 8 9.4 0.8 2.4 4.3 0.9 3.50 4
1995 Orix JPL 24 23 167.0 179 90 20 48 74 4.85 9 10 9.6 1.1 2.6 4.0 0.8 4.00 -2
1997 Anaheim AL 50 7 120.0 116 57 13 40 80 4.28 7 6 8.7 1.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 4.18 -1
1998 Anaheim AL 61 0 100.3 84 41 13 29 71 3.68 7 4 7.5 1.2 2.6 6.4 1.2 3.03 1
1999 Anaheim AL 64 1 79.7 77 43 12 28 44 4.86 4 5 8.7 1.4 3.2 5.0 0.8 4.43 -14
2000 Anaheim AL 66 0 99.0 96 46 9 31 58 4.18 6 5 8.7 0.8 2.8 5.3 0.9 3.35 -5
2001 Anaheim AL 46 0 57.0 52 24 5 19 39 3.79 4 2 8.2 0.8 3.0 6.2 1.0 4.04 -2
Majors 287 8 456.0 425 211 52 147 292 4.16 28 22 8.4 1.0 2.9 5.8 1.0 3.77 -4
Minors 2 2 2.0 3 1 0 0 0 4.50 0 0 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 6.83 -36
Japan 49 45 326.7 345 165 34 90 150 4.55 19 18 9.5 0.9 2.5 4.1 0.8 3.77 1
Totals 338 55 784.7 773 377 86 237 442 4.32 47 40 8.9 1.0 2.7 5.1 0.8 3.77 -2
Shigetoshi Hasegawa converted from a starter to a reliever when he came here. He’s done a touch better than expected, but not
remarkably so.
Masato Yoshii Age 37
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1994 Osa-Kint JPL 21 19 98.7 117 70 19 34 37 6.39 4 7 10.7 1.7 3.1 3.4 0.5 6.70 -21
1995 Yakult JCL 34 22 139.7 129 56 13 33 83 3.61 10 6 8.3 0.8 2.1 5.3 1.3 3.55 5
1997 Yakult JCL 28 20 165.0 150 66 15 42 97 3.60 11 7 8.2 0.8 2.3 5.3 1.2 3.47 10
1998 NY Mets NL 29 29 173.7 169 85 23 49 103 4.40 10 9 8.8 1.2 2.5 5.3 1.1 4.33 5
1999 NY Mets NL 31 29 177.7 167 82 24 49 95 4.15 11 9 8.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 1.0 4.23 1
2000 Colorado NL 29 29 172.0 197 103 25 44 78 5.39 8 11 10.3 1.3 2.3 4.1 0.9 4.32 -4
2001 Montreal NL 42 11 108.0 124 62 15 23 51 5.17 5 7 10.3 1.2 1.9 4.2 1.1 5.00 -11
Majors 131 98 631.3 657 332 87 165 327 4.73 34 36 9.4 1.2 2.4 4.7 0.7 4.41 -1
Japan 83 61 403.3 396 192 47 109 217 4.28 25 20 8.8 1.0 2.4 4.8 1.0 4.29 1
Totals 214 159 1034.7 1053 524 134 274 544 4.56 59 56 9.2 1.2 2.4 4.7 0.8 4.37 0
Almost identical performances on both sides of the Pacific, in sum, by Masato Yoshii. Age is catching up with him.
Kazuhiro Sasaki Age 34
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1994 Yokohama JCL 31 0 43.7 28 13 6 13 56 2.68 4 1 5.8 1.2 2.7 11.5 2.2 2.49 33
1995 Yokohama JCL 47 0 54.3 31 12 5 14 72 1.99 5 1 5.1 0.8 2.3 11.9 2.6 2.05 39
1997 Yokohama JCL 49 0 58.0 26 11 6 15 93 1.71 5 1 4.0 0.9 2.3 14.4 3.1 0.97 56
1998 Yokohama JCL 51 0 53.7 33 12 5 12 75 2.01 5 1 5.5 0.8 2.0 12.6 3.1 1.29 45
1999 Yokohama JCL 23 0 22.3 19 7 1 6 33 2.82 1 1 7.7 0.4 2.4 13.3 2.8 2.04 47
2000 Seattle AL 63 0 64.3 40 22 9 25 77 3.08 5 2 5.6 1.3 3.5 10.8 1.5 3.23 23
2001 Seattle AL 69 0 68.0 48 17 6 10 59 2.25 6 2 6.4 0.8 1.3 7.8 3.0 3.20 15
Majors 132 0 132.3 88 39 15 35 136 2.65 11 4 6.0 1.0 2.4 9.2 4.5 3.21 19
Japan 201 0 232.0 137 55 23 60 329 2.13 20 5 5.3 0.9 2.3 12.8 2.7 1.69 45
Totals 333 0 364.3 225 94 38 95 465 2.32 31 9 5.6 0.9 2.3 11.5 7.6 2.24 35
I didn’t realize, until researching this article, that Kazuhiro Sasaki was the highest-paid player in Japan before
leaving–which means Japanese front offices inflate a closer’s value as badly as their American counterparts do. The fact is,
though, that he was practically unhittable in Japan, and his performance here, good as it has been, is well below the levels he
established for himself over there.
Kazuhisa Ishii Age 28
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1997 Yakult JCL 18 15 112.3 75 31 5 44 112 2.48 9 3 6.0 0.4 3.5 9.0 1.3 2.36 33
1998 Yakult JCL 28 27 187.0 151 79 14 97 232 3.80 12 9 7.3 0.7 4.7 11.2 1.2 4.18 37
1999 Yakult JCL 23 21 126.7 121 71 15 69 157 5.04 6 8 8.6 1.1 4.9 11.2 1.1 5.47 30
2000 Yakult JCL 29 27 173.7 139 69 15 75 189 3.58 12 7 7.2 0.8 3.9 9.8 1.3 2.96 33
2001 Yakult JCL 27 27 172.7 141 77 20 77 146 4.01 11 8 7.3 1.0 4.0 7.6 0.9 4.33 15
Japan 125 117 772.3 627 327 69 362 836 3.81 50 35 7.3 0.8 4.2 9.7 1.2 3.89 30
Kazuhisa Ishii is the left-hander the Dodgers bought the rights to this winter. He has a high-90s fastball and excellent
slider, and was the most dominant strikeout pitcher in Japan. However, he has led the league in walks and wild pitches several
times, he has missed parts of several seasons with arm trouble, and his strikeout and stuff numbers took a precipitous decline last
season.
Satoru Komiyama Age 36
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1997 Chiba JPL 27 24 192.0 186 67 10 27 121 3.14 14 7 8.7 0.5 1.3 5.7 2.2 3.19 18
1998 Chiba JPL 27 27 200.0 227 99 23 23 122 4.45 11 11 10.2 1.0 1.0 5.5 2.7 4.84 10
1999 Chiba JPL 21 21 141.7 164 77 22 13 87 4.89 7 9 10.4 1.4 0.8 5.5 3.3 5.10 8
2000 Yokohama JCL 26 24 151.7 165 86 23 38 97 5.10 7 10 9.8 1.4 2.3 5.8 1.3 4.41 6
2001 Yokohama JCL 24 24 147.7 151 61 10 28 62 3.72 10 6 9.2 0.6 1.7 3.8 1.1 3.70 3
Japan 125 120 833.0 893 390 88 129 489 4.21 49 43 9.6 1.0 1.4 5.3 1.9 4.22 10
Satoru Komiyama, who played for Bobby Valentine in Chiba in 1996, was picked up by the Mets this year. He’s getting up in
years–his stuff scores have declined four years in a row, and his strikeouts dropped from an acceptable mid-fives to a dangerous
sub-fours level. Despite all that, he finished fourth in the league in ERA. Komiyama throws five different pitches with excellent
control, with a reputation as a fierce competitor and team leader.
Akinori Otsuka Age 30
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1997 Osa-Kint JPL 52 0 83.3 46 21 3 42 118 2.27 7 2 5.0 0.3 4.5 12.7 1.4 2.66 40
1998 Osa-Kint JPL 49 0 54.7 44 22 6 21 71 3.62 4 2 7.2 1.0 3.5 11.7 1.7 3.44 29
1999 Osa-Kint JPL 25 0 29.7 25 10 1 9 29 3.03 2 1 7.6 0.3 2.7 8.8 1.6 4.09 17
2000 Osa-Kint JPL 39 0 41.7 32 13 3 11 45 2.81 4 1 6.9 0.6 2.4 9.7 2.0 2.06 25
2001 Osa-Kint JPL 48 0 55.7 45 19 6 13 73 3.07 4 2 7.3 1.0 2.1 11.8 2.8 4.28 33
Japan 213 0 265.0 192 85 19 96 336 2.89 21 8 6.5 0.6 3.3 11.4 1.8 3.23 32
Japan’s premier closer since Sasaki left, Akinori Otsuka throws a mid-90s fastball and a slider. He suffered from some elbow
trouble in 1999, but it looks like he has recovered completely.
Shigeki Noguchi Age 28
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1997 Chunichi JCL 11 7 35.0 46 25 2 18 13 6.43 1 3 11.8 0.5 4.6 3.3 0.4 8.50 -26
1998 Chunichi JCL 27 27 181.0 175 78 13 58 129 3.88 11 9 8.7 0.6 2.9 6.4 1.1 3.53 15
1999 Chunichi JCL 29 29 191.3 197 91 13 65 140 4.28 11 10 9.3 0.6 3.1 6.6 1.1 3.54 15
2000 Chunichi JCL 33 27 163.0 199 108 20 60 115 5.96 7 11 11.0 1.1 3.3 6.3 1.0 6.04 2
2001 Chunichi JCL 26 26 191.3 174 59 8 26 157 2.78 15 6 8.2 0.4 1.2 7.4 3.0 3.72 29
Japan 126 116 761.7 791 361 56 227 554 4.27 45 39 9.3 0.7 2.7 6.5 1.2 4.35 14
Shigeki Noguchi was the Central League’s MVP in 1999, when he went 19-7, and he is the reigning ERA champ. He is a
left-hander who relies primarily on his fastball.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Age 21
Year Team Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KW PERA STUF
1999 Seibu JPL 25 24 180.7 130 65 16 78 137 3.24 13 7 6.5 0.8 3.9 6.8 0.9 3.01 15
2000 Seibu JPL 27 24 167.3 136 69 14 77 133 3.71 11 8 7.3 0.8 4.1 7.2 0.9 3.97 15
2001 Seibu JPL 33 32 240.7 189 96 24 100 189 3.59 16 11 7.1 0.9 3.7 7.1 0.9 3.92 15
Japan 85 80 588.7 455 230 54 255 459 3.52 40 26 7.0 0.8 3.9 7.0 0.9 3.65 16
Daisuke Matsuzaka has played three years in Japan’s major leagues, and has been named the league’s best pitcher three times.
He throws as hard as Ishii does, but from the right-hand side, and blew Ichiro away three times the first time they met. I also have
to think he’s a good candidate for arm trouble, given his age and workload.
Clay Davenport is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
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