CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (04/01)
No Previous Column
Next Column >>
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL... (04/06)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: Ma... (04/04)

April 1, 2011

Divide and Conquer, AL East

The Pen's the Thing

by Ben Kabak

In each of the past five seasons, the American League East team featuring the bullpen with the highest WXRL has emerged the division champ. While starting pitching always dominates the conversation, the late innings could hold the key to the outcome of what figures to be another competitive race for the playoffs.

Nonetheless, the AL East bullpens—always a point of volatility—remain in flux. Last year's division winners have seen an entirely new cast of characters take up shop down the line in Tropicana Field, while the Yankees have added to their strengths and the Red Sox have loaded up on closers. With the back ends of Baltimore's and Toronto's bullpens still works in progress, it would hardly come as a surprise if the final standings shake down in order of bullpen efficiency once again.

The Rays’ bullpen enters the season as the most intriguing of the quintet. Yet, theirs is the least likely to duplicate its past successes. Last year, Joe Maddon's stellar pen led the AL in almost every applicable category. Maddon made the most pitching changes, coaxing a 3.33 ERA out of his relievers in the process. Thanks in large part to Rafael Soriano's 5.9 WXRL, Tampa Bay’s pen paced the AL in that department by a significant margin after sporting an overall 5.6 WXRL during the team’s disappointing third-place finish in 2009.

Now, though, that entire cast of characters has moved on. Closer Rafael Soriano jetted for greener pastures when he signed an insanely lucrative or lucratively insane deal to set up for Mariano Rivera. Joaquin Benoit, eighth in the AL in WXRL, will pitch for the Tigers, and Lance Cormier made the Dodgers out of spring training. Dan Wheeler signed a nifty $3 million contract with the Red Sox, while Randy Choate moved south to Miami and Grant Balfour went west to Oakland. After earning just under $16 million last year, those six pitchers will make a combined $24 million in 2011.

The Rays, then—the new darlings of building a team on a budget—had to jettison these players over cost concerns, and GM Andrew Friedman has assembled a brand new slate of cut-rate talents to replace them, including Kyle Farnsworth, who has served with a certain lack of distinction in the division before. Farnsworth will be part of a closer-by-committee group that also includes Juan Cruz, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, and Cesar Ramos. Stalwart Andy Sonnanstine will provide depth, while Adam Russell will simply do his best to stick around.

With this motley crew, Joe Maddon might need to work some miracles. The current mix of relievers combined for just a 2.357 WXRL with various teams last year, and Maddon, who loves to mix and match, will miss the reliability of Benoit and Soriano. If McGee can emerge as the stud closer he thinks he can be and the rest of the pen can miss bats as they have in the past, the $5 million investment could more than pay off. For now, though, Tampa Bay is serving as an on-the-fly test of the volatility of relievers, and the club's chances behind the Yankees and Red Sox could hinge on a bullpen far less certain than last year's.

Heading up the eastern seaboard and down the 2010 division standings, the Yankees are one of the teams that enjoyed—and paid for—the spoils of the Rays' successful bullpen. The only club in baseball that can truly afford to pay two relievers at closer rates, the Yanks gave the ageless Mariano Rivera a two-year, $30-million deal and then inked Rafael Soriano to a three-year, $35-million contract with various opt-outs. For a cool $25 million, the Yanks appear to have the eighth and ninth innings down pat.

Familiar faces and new arms fill out the rest of the pen. Joba Chamberlain will star as the most overhyped middle reliever in baseball, while David Robertson will continue to hope that he can avoid disaster while walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Boone Logan resumes his role as the club's primary LOOGY after holding lefties to a .190/.286/.215 line last year. To replace the injured Damaso Marte, the Yanks inked Pedro Feliciano to a two-year, $8-million deal, but the one-time Mets workhorse couldn't make it out of spring training before injuring his shoulder. Bartolo Colon, literally and figuratively, rounds out the pen as the team's long reliever.

There is little doubt that the Yankees have the best bullpen in the American League. Enough of the Steinbrenners’ dollars have been invested in late-inning arms to make it so (despite Brian Cashman’s protests). The questions for the Yanks focus on health and age. Can Rivera defy his 1969 birth date? Can Soriano stay healthy? And when will we see Mark Prior, dominant in the spring and my favorite feel-good story of the Grapefruit League, make his Yankee debut? These are worries most teams would die for.

In a sense, though, the Yankees are rolling the dice with their bullpen strategy. They lost out on Cliff Lee and are hoping that a shut-down bullpen can overcome a starting rotation that's short on depth and high on question marks. In Boston, PECOTA's darling and the Yanks' primary competition for the AL East title, Theo Epstein's bullpen strategy seems to focus on overcoming a weakness as well, but in the case of the Red Sox, the weakness is a shaky closer.

Jonathan Papelbon sports the save totals and strikeout numbers to sustain the illusion of an elite closer, but few Boston fans embrace him as such. Papelbon put up a pedestrian 1.874 WXRL last year, ranking him just above Joel Peralta, and he'll earn $12 million this year. He will leave Boston for a team willing to overpay him when he hits free agency, and after a poor Grapefruit League showing, members of the rabid Boston media are wondering whether Papelbon is finished. What makes Papelbon's role on the Red Sox so perplexing is the arm behind him. Daniel Bard, one of the AL's top ten relievers last year, remains in the set-up spot, and Papelbon must feel the heat of his 98 mph fastball bearing down on his job.

Looking to upgrade one of the league's least effective pens last year, Theo Epstein added Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Dennys Reyes, and Hey, Hey, Hey, It's Matt Albers to join Tim Wakefield and Felix Doubront. Alfredo Aceves, non-tendered by the Yankees, could be another long-relief option if his back holds up as he starts at Triple-A. The Red Sox have shown a proclivity toward making big moves with marquee names, and if Papelbon and Bard position themselves appropriately this year, Boston could move its current closer come July. After sporting a meager 4.844 WXLR last year, the Sox invested over $25 million in the pen, but aside from Bard, will these relievers be $20 million better than Tampa Bay's? If anything, these two clubs will underscore the need—or lack thereof—to invest heavily in relievers.

Outside of the AL East's heavy hitters, the up-and-comers and also-rans must also seek their 400-plus relief innings. The Orioles, the likely fourth-place team in the East, have a bullpen composed of spare bits. Last year, the club's relievers finished the season with a 4.44 ERA, just 0.02 runs better than Kansas City's abysmal pen. Their big off-season splash involved doling out $10 million to Kevin Gregg and then anointing him co-closer with Koji Uehara. Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson, Jeremy Accardo, former starter Jason Berken, and Josh Rupe make up the remainder of the Opening Day pen. Justin Duchscherer could join the mix—if not the rotation—if he can stay healthy for more than two weeks at a time.

Throughout his career, Buck Showalter has won in spite of weak bullpens, and the Baltimore pen will ensure that if he excels this season, 2011 won’t be an exception to that rule. This is a crew more reminiscent of the 1995 Yankees pen than of the 1999 Diamondbacks, and Baltimore has neither the arms nor the payroll leeway to invest properly.

Finally, the Canadians enter the picture. The Blue Jays put together just the 10th-best AL bullpen last year, and they lost closer Gregg to the Orioles and lefty specialist Scott Downs to the Angels. Jon Rauch and his 2.259 WXRL will inherit the closer spot, but the remaining arms—Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Mark Rzepczynski, Casey Janssen, Carlos Villanueva, and David Purcey—are warm bodies on a team spinning its wheels.

By midseason, an entirely new cast of relievers could take center stage in the East, even as the Sandman himself bears down on 600 saves. Yet, for all of its power-packed offenses, the high-priced bullpens of the American League East might just be holding the ace in this division's deck of cards.

Related Content:  Relievers,  Rafael Soriano

7 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

toddneckers

I'm definitely thinking of naming a fantasy team Hey, Hey, Hey, It's Matt Albers.

Apr 01, 2011 06:59 AM
rating: 1
 
cfinberg

Agreed. Wordplay of the Day contender!

Apr 01, 2011 08:42 AM
rating: 1
 
Schere

Over the last couple of years, local jerkoffs were calling him Fat Albers after poor performances.

Apr 01, 2011 12:26 PM
rating: 0
 
meanwhoogean

To say the yanks are the only team who can afford to pay two closer salaries is something I strongly disaree with, especially after the money jenks and wheeler got. Now whether the yanks are the only team desperate enough to do this is another question.

Apr 01, 2011 17:30 PM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

Albersian word-play notwithstanding, this was a very disappointing debut. If you are focusing on five teams only, dismissing two out of hand is not a good idea. Not only was your write-up of the Jays extremely scant, it was riddled with more inaccuracies than should be possible in four short lines. It's pretty obvious you just looked at the opening day lineup and the list of players gone from last year. Let's start with Scott Downs. While he is a lefty, he has not been a lefty specialist (LOOGY) in years. In 2009, he held righties to an OPS of 643 in 139 PA while lefties put up a 786 OPS in 61 PA. Last year, the split was re-reversed, although righties still only were able to accrue an OPS against of 637, while Downs held lefties to a meagre 488. The fact that he faced more than 3 RHB for every 2 LHB and that he averaged around 1 inning per appearance over the last three years shows that his loss will be felt more than that of a simple LOOGY.
As for the Jays' current pen, I know that you only looked at the active roster and not the makeup of the club as you neglected to mention either of Frank Francisco or Octavio Dotel, both of whom begin the year on the DL. Francisco is expected to miss around 2 weeks, and there have not been any reports indicating that Dotel will be gone for longer. Francisco has been tabbed as the closer by all levels of management throughout the spring, until he strained a pectoral.
Finally, "spinning their wheels", way off base. Kevin Goldstein was not the only pundit to claim that the Jays are among the most improved organizations (measured through improved young talent base) in the majors. They have one of the best systems outside of Kansas. They have rookies starting in J.P. Arencibia and Kyle Drabek with a mandate to finally stick with a 23-year-old Travis Snider all year long. Zach Stewart and Brett Lawrie will also probably debut later this season. Brandon Morrow (one he returns from the DL next week) will be their oldest starting pitcher, turning 27 this July.
I'm sure you know your Yankees, and you know how to write, but this was just disappointing.

Apr 02, 2011 10:59 AM
rating: 11
 
clachan

Give it to 'em. The Jays are certainly not spinning their wheels!

Apr 03, 2011 16:05 PM
rating: 3
 
mick968

Hear, hear.

Apr 04, 2011 10:04 AM
rating: 1
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (04/01)
No Previous Column
Next Column >>
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL... (04/06)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: Ma... (04/04)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Rounders: Turn On the Green Light
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: June 29, 2015
Premium Article Raising Aces: 2015 Draft Audit, Part 3
Premium Article Prospect Profile: Yoan Moncada
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Sandberg Goeth
Premium Article BP Milwaukee
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 29, 2015

MORE FROM APRIL 1, 2011
Premium Article On the Beat: Two Twins Are Better Than One
Baseball ProGUESTus: Answer Me These Questio...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Value Picks in the Rotation
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Three Tips for Surviving April
Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Bobby Jenks
Team Injury Projection: Los Angeles Dodgers
Team Injury Projection: Los Angeles Angels

MORE BY BEN KABAK
2011-04-20 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Week the O'...
2011-04-13 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: Manny Happy Ret...
2011-04-06 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: Pass the Taters
2011-04-01 - Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Pen's the T...
More...

MORE DIVIDE AND CONQUER, AL EAST
2011-04-20 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Week the O'...
2011-04-13 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: Manny Happy Ret...
2011-04-06 - Premium Article Divide and Conquer, AL East: Pass the Taters
2011-04-01 - Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Pen's the T...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2011-04-01 - What You Missed: 3/28-4/1