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April 1, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 4/1

by John Perrotto

Based on the early odds, there are three matchups I like Friday, starting with a matinee in which I'll take the Rangers and C.J. Wilson plus-105 over the Red Sox and Jon Lester. The Rangers are 15-4 in Wilson's last 19 starts in Arlington. I would stick with the Rangers unless the odds go above minus-105.

I also see two favorable late-night matchups on the West Coast, going with the Athletics and Trevor Cahill minus -120 over the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, and the Giants and Jonathan Sanchez at an even 100-100 over the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley. Like Wilson, Cahill is tough to beat at home as the Athletics are 20-7 in his last 27 starts in Oakland. I would not go past minus-125 with the Athletics or past minus-105 on the Giants.

Opening Day picks went 1-1 with the Reds rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to beat the Brewers 7-6 and the Giants falling to the Dodgers 2-1. From a money standpoint, it was a breakeven day as the Reds were 120-100 favorites and the Giants were 100-101 underdogs.

Season record: 1-1(.500)

Profit/loss: $0

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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<< Previous Article
Pre-Season Predictions (03/31)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/01)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/02)
Next Article >>
Team Injury Projection... (04/01)

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