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April 1, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 4/1

by John Perrotto

Based on the early odds, there are three matchups I like Friday, starting with a matinee in which I'll take the Rangers and C.J. Wilson plus-105 over the Red Sox and Jon Lester. The Rangers are 15-4 in Wilson's last 19 starts in Arlington. I would stick with the Rangers unless the odds go above minus-105.

I also see two favorable late-night matchups on the West Coast, going with the Athletics and Trevor Cahill minus -120 over the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, and the Giants and Jonathan Sanchez at an even 100-100 over the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley. Like Wilson, Cahill is tough to beat at home as the Athletics are 20-7 in his last 27 starts in Oakland. I would not go past minus-125 with the Athletics or past minus-105 on the Giants.

Opening Day picks went 1-1 with the Reds rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to beat the Brewers 7-6 and the Giants falling to the Dodgers 2-1. From a money standpoint, it was a breakeven day as the Reds were 120-100 favorites and the Giants were 100-101 underdogs.

Season record: 1-1(.500)

Profit/loss: $0

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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6 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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BrownianNotion

Are you sure about using win-loss records at home as an indicating factor in how these future games might play out? For instance, the Rangers may have been 15-4 in C.J. Wilson's last 19 home games, but he had a higher ERA at home (3.70) than on the road (2.91). When I looked at those lines, they all seemed to be at least close enough to the right spot that I wouldn't want to play them.

Apr 01, 2011 05:38 AM
rating: 0
 
cbirkemeier

Are you sure about using ERA when comparing home/road splits? C.J. Wilson's home/road xFIPs are 4.03/4.11.

Also, you're ignoring park factors when comparing ERAs. While it won't be 3.70/2.91, teams do tend to score more runs in Arlington than other places.

Apr 01, 2011 06:15 AM
rating: 0
 
BrownianNotion

I wasn't using his ERA to say "he was substantially better on the road than at home." I was using it as "just giving a win-loss record at home doesn't tell enough of the story for me." 19 games is a small sample size. I was simply trying to show that C.J. didn't pitch substantially better at home, even when the Rangers won a higher percentage of games there. The xFIP probably shows this better, so thank you.

If you're comfortable with the Rangers at -105, that means you think the Rangers have a greater than around 51.22% chance of winning. I like the Red Sox more than the Rangers in that game, and don't like the Rangers enough at +105. That's what I was trying to say.

Apr 01, 2011 06:26 AM
rating: 0
 
DDriesen

Profit/loss = $0 - What about the imaginary vig?

Apr 01, 2011 07:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member perrotto
BP staff

Giants, my loser, were an underdog, so no vig.

Apr 01, 2011 07:43 AM
 
PelotaDiSoldi

I don't know if you're just picking sides, but the Boston-Texas game seems to me to be a better OVER bet than Texas to win. You've got the huge question marks in the Rangers bullpen before Feliz, Wilson's bum hammy, Lester's penchant to start slowly, and of course two potent offenses.

Apr 01, 2011 10:42 AM
rating: 0
 
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<< Previous Article
Pre-Season Predictions (03/31)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (04/01)
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Team Injury Projection... (04/01)

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