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April 1, 2011

Team Injury Projection

Los Angeles Dodgers

by Corey Dawkins and Marc Normandin

Team Injury Projections

The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.

These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Team Audit | Depth Chart
 

Dashboard

2010 Recap
 
2010
 
2009
 
2008
 
2007
4th in NL West
35 entries
19 DL trips
               
685
TDL
20
DMPI
 
685
TDL
5th
 
20
DMPI
15th
 
1354
TDL
26th
 
25
DMPI
21st
 
1573
TDL
24th
 
36
DMPI
27th
 
922
TDL
11th
 
26
DMPI
13th

Hitters in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 
Days Lost to Injury
2011 Injury Risk
Player
Age
2008
2009
2010
1-day
15-days
30-days
Rafael Furcal
33
141
3
58
Red
Red
Red
Matt Kemp
26
1
0
0
Yellow
Green
Green
Andre Ethier
29
0
1
18
Red
Yellow
Green
James Loney
27
0
3
1
Yellow
Green
Green
Casey Blake
37
1
29
5
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Juan Uribe
32
15
16
14
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Jay Gibbons
34
0
0
4
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Rod Barajas
35
17
3
31
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Marcus Thames
34
5
44
26
Red
Red
Red
Tony Gwynn
28
19
0
29
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Aaron Miles
34
0
120
0
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Jamey Carroll
37
4
37
3
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Dioner Navarro
27
21
3
13
Yellow
Green
Green

Pitchers in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 
Days Lost to Injury
2011 Injury Risk
Player
Age
2008
2009
2010
1-day
15-days
30-days
Clayton Kershaw
23
0
16
0
Green
Green
Green
Chad Billingsley
26
0
10
22
Green
Green
Green
Ted Lilly
35
0
41
29
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Hiroki Kuroda
36
19
95
0
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Jon Garland
31
0
0
0
Yellow
Green
Green
Vicente Padilla
33
39
50
102
Red
Red
Red
Jonathan Broxton
27
0
10
2
Green
Green
Green
Matt Guerrier
32
0
0
0
Yellow
Green
Green
Hong-Chih Kuo
29
29
85
27
Yellow
Yellow
Green
Lance Cormier
30
0
0
0
Yellow
Green
Green
Scott Elbert
26
0
0
0
Green
Green
Green
Kenley Jansen
23
0
0
0
Green
Green
Green
Ramon Troncoso
28
0
0
0
Green
Green
Green
Blake Hawksworth
28
0
0
15
Yellow
Green
Green

Corey Dawkins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Corey's other articles. You can contact Corey by clicking here

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