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March 30, 2011

BP Unfiltered

For Amusement Only 3/31

by John Perrotto

At For Amusement Only, we'll take a look at the early money lines for the next day's slate of major-league games (using those posted at DonBest.com) and try to find some potentially good plays.

Please be advised that I'm not a financial adviser, rather just someone who has long been fascinated by betting odds. If you decide to place a wager on my picks, you are advised to do so at your own risk. After all, that's why this new feature is called For Amusement Only.

As of 11:45 p.m. Eastern, the only pick for Opening Day on Thursday would be taking the Reds and Edinson Volquez minus-115 over the Brewers and Yovani Gallardo. The Reds have dominated the Brewers recently by winning 16 of the last 21 meetings overall and eight of the last nine games at Great American Ball Park. Furthermore, the Reds went 8-3 in Volquez's last 11 starts last season. If the line goes above minus-120, though, take a pass.

Other possible picks if the line should shift before game time:

The Yankees and CC Sabathia over the Tigers and Justin Verlander if the line falls to minus-140 or lower. It was minus-145 at this writing.

The Giants and Tim Lincecum over the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw if the line falls below minus-110, which is where it stands at this writing.

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Overthinking It: Non-S... (03/29)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Compara... (03/29)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: The Pap... (03/31)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Value Pi... (03/30)

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