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February 23, 2011

Fantasy Focus

Center Fielder Rankings

by Marc Normandin

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These are the center fielder fantasy rankings for 2011. Check out our previous first base, second base, third base, shortstop, catcher, left fielder, and closer installments.

Like last year, the fantasy rankings are broken into tiers. Generally speaking, five-star players should be worthwhile in five categories and have an auction dollar value of $30 or more in your standard, mixed leagues. Four-star players should be worth at least $20 and useful in four categories, three-stars $10 and up, two-stars are more of your single-digit buys that you hope fill a hole or return some bargain value, and one-star players are, most likely, roster filler in the deepest leagues that you hope can be worth the buck you throw down on them.

This year we are listing stats like we have in the past (plate appearances, average, R, RBI, SB and HR projections from PECOTA) but are also including dollar value estimates produced by the Player Forecast Manager. In order to make these columns fit into the tables, I had to shorten them: "2L-$" is for mixed leagues, and "1L-$" is for AL- or NL-only leagues, depending on the player. The dollar values may not match up perfectly with the tiers, but those are just cases of PECOTA and I disagreeing on a player.

For reference, the dollar values were created with the PFM using standard 5x5 roto scoring, 23-player rosters—broken down as C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) Util (1) P (9)—and $180 of the $260 budget allocated for hitters and $1 minimum salaries. A minimum of 20 games needed to be played at a position in the previous season to qualify (though I snuck a few brand-new players likely to qualify in). If your league uses different settings, be sure to plug them into the PFM to see what kind of differences in dollar value we are talking about—I set these to be as close to standard roster construction as possible.

Five Stars

Player

TEAM

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Carlos Gonzalez

COL

650

91

28

103

20

.304

$37

$34

Center field might be deep, but Gonzalez is the lone elite talent in which it's worth investing loads of money. Sure, he's overrated in real life, but he can rely on Colorado to keep him overrated for your personal gain.

Four Stars

Player

TEAM

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Matt Kemp

LAN

700

87

23

89

29

.275

$30

$31

Josh Hamilton

TEX

550

76

24

82

8

.297

$15

$21

Jayson Werth

WAS

650

86

26

84

16

.266

$21

$24

Andrew McCutchen

PIT

649

81

12

72

29

.278

$19

$26

Jacoby Ellsbury

BOS

600

69

5

58

49

.281

$19

$28

Alex Rios

CHA

625

75

19

77

26

.269

$19

$25

Kemp's 2010 season was a huge disappointment, but I'm not ready to give up on him after one season. The same goes for PECOTA, who projected Kemp for something more akin to a five-star campaign. He's borderline after his 2010, so I stuck him in four-star territory instead. Let's hope that the removal of the coaching staff that blamed Kemp (or, in Twitter language, #BlameKemp) helps him out, and that the addition of Davey Lopes, who had a positive effect on the Phillies' baserunning, improves Kemp's production on the bases.

I discussed Josh Hamilton in the left fielder rankings—between his ridiculous 2010 BABIP and his injury history, I have a hard time putting him into the five-star category. If he's healthy all year, he should deserve it, but like Joe Mauer, he hasn't exactly earned that kind of trust. Jayson Werth will miss Citizens Bank Park, but he should still be able to put up a $20-plus season between his bat and his legs. Andrew McCutchen is more speed than power at this point, but an improved Pittsburgh lineup should make him a better 2011 pick than a 2010 one. Jacoby Ellsbury, with ribs intact, is an exciting fantasy player. Don't forget that. Now that I've put Alex Rios back into a high tier, I'm sure he will completely fall apart again.

Three Stars

Player

TEAM

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Drew Stubbs

CIN

630

70

15

64

33

.244

$12

$23

Curtis Granderson

NYA

521

66

20

69

12

.257

$5

$17

Colby Rasmus

SLN

600

71

18

68

12

.254

$6

$16

Shane Victorino

PHI

650

79

14

75

30

.273

$20

$26

Rajai Davis

TOR

600

66

7

60

53

.268

$20

$29

Chris Young

ARI

650

80

24

84

20

.249

$18

$23

Brett Gardner

NYA

600

70

7

51

46

.260

$14

$25

Angel Pagan

NYN

603

69

7

63

29

.271

$10

$21

B.J. Upton

TBA

625

71

14

62

40

.238

$14

$24

Michael Bourn

HOU

600

62

3

48

48

.251

$10

$24

Adam Jones

BAL

600

72

19

75

10

.272

$9

$18

Torii Hunter

ANA

600

72

19

70

15

.262

$9

$19

Carlos Beltran

NYN

530

68

16

62

14

.268

$5

$16

Andres Torres

SFN

500

59

11

57

20

.251

$1

$15

Austin Jackson

DET

624

68

5

58

20

.268

$4

$17

Drew Stubbs was worth much more than this in 2010, and he should outdo his projected runs-scored total above. Curtis Granderson's forecast is very pessimistic, considering that he is playing for the Yankees and will receive all the wonderful R and RBI opportunities that come with that. Let's not forget that the park loves lefties, too. Colby Rasmus didn't impress PECOTA with his 2010 campaign, but to be fair, PECOTA didn't like him very much heading into that season, either. Shane Victorino is declining slowly and the Philadelphia offense around him is nowhere near as strong as it used to be, but between the runs and the steals, he will net you plenty of value.

Rajai Davis's projection says four stars, but his track record says three. I may be wrong, but I'm sticking with it. Chris Young finally broke out and produced in both real life and in fantasy baseball. Now we get to see if he can repeat that trick. I have faith in him, but don't let him know, as my lack of patience last season was clearly the deciding factor in his putting it together.

I'm finally putting B.J. Upton where his production merits, rather than where his potential sits. Expect to see him hit .300 with 30 homers and 40 steals now, just because I've finally given up on it getting any better than this. Michael Bourn's steal totals are tantalizing, but without home-run power he isn't going to be driven in very often. What, you think one of the other Astros in the lineup is going to do that? I thought not.

I rated Jones as a four-star center fielder last year and he put up a three-star season. Even if he improves a bit, he may still be three-star, though there is room for him to push toward the top of this group. Torii Hunter isn't a fantasy star, but he's been dependable for awhile now, and there was nothing in his 2010 campaign that makes me think that is going to change this year. Carlos Beltran missed most of 2010 and didn't play well when he was on the field, but he finished strong in September (slugging over .600 in that month) and is even further removed from his knee surgery. I think he has potential to have a much bigger season than this ranking or PECOTA gives him credit for, but he needs to stay on the field before I can give him the credit for that outright.

Andres Torres was discussed in detail yesterday as someone whom PECOTA is understandably lumping in with many of the other late "bloomers" who never did much more outside of their supposed breakout campaign. As I said then, I like him, so pick him up as a power/speed guy on the cheap if others show the same lack of faith as PECOTA. Austin Jackson confuses me—his ceiling is higher than this ranking, but his floor is also much lower. He's been plopped down in the middle for that reason—you can read much more about my thoughts on him here.

Two Stars

Player

TEAM

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Denard Span

MIN

661

77

4

60

25

.280

$10

$20

Grady Sizemore

CLE

525

66

16

62

19

.252

$5

$17

Marlon Byrd

CHN

600

74

13

70

7

.284

$7

$17

Vernon Wells

ANA

626

72

18

74

10

.256

$7

$17

Will Venable

SDN

545

60

15

57

15

.234

-$1

$13

Coco Crisp

OAK

450

50

6

43

27

.257

-$2

$15

Dexter Fowler

COL

650

82

9

73

23

.278

$15

$23

Julio Borbon

TEX

571

62

6

54

29

.277

$6

$20

Peter Bourjos

ANA

610

63

9

62

31

.248

$7

$20

Denard Span would be more thrilling to me if not for Target Field, which seems like it is going to be deter his already limited power. Calling Grady Sizemore a question mark is an understatement, especially since we aren't entirely sure how long it will take for his all-important speed to return. He's no longer an elite option even if he remains healthy—he hasn't been elite for a few years now, despite my overzealous ranking of him in 2010. Marlon Byrd might be capable of sneaking into the bottom of the three-star tier—he did so last year—but it seems like a smarter bet to leave him where he is, especially since he doesn't excel in any one area. Vernon Wells is going to see a drop in his production now that he's out of Toronto, so don't get caught paying for his 2010 rebound one year later.  

I have a feeling that Will Venable is going to be worth more than this ranking indicates in 2011, but Petco Park and its destruction of lefty production loom large. He will absolutely steal more bases than PECOTA is projecting, though, which is why he is here despite a negative dollar-value projection. Coco Crisp will play fine when he is on the field, but as usual, he may miss too much time to keep him from being a difference maker in mixed leagues. I don't know why PECOTA has the hots for Fowler, but maybe the forecasting system just respects the Harvard acceptee's mind. He's had a quality minor-league career, and Rob McQuown likes him, too.

Julio Borbon was supposed to be a fantasy monster in 2010, but platoon issues and a drop in stolen-base rates got in the way of that. Peter Bourjos is at the bottom of the two-star tier, but it's easy to see him slipping into $1 territory—his projection is pretty ugly as is, and relies almost entirely on plenty of of playing time and stolen bases to keep him afloat.

One Star

Player

TEAM

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Nate McLouth

ATL

500

59

14

55

16

.243

-$1

$13

Carlos Gomez

MIL

470

48

6

43

25

.240

-$5

$12

Michael Brantley

CLE

550

59

4

46

25

.267

$0

$16

Franklin Gutierrez

SEA

625

66

12

60

17

.245

$2

$16

Nyjer Morgan

WAS

425

45

1

34

29

.268

-$6

$13

Cameron Maybin

SDN

550

61

10

54

15

.248

-$1

$12

Lorenzo Cain

KCA

550

59

6

51

14

.254

-$3

$12

Cody Ross

SFN

500

59

16

62

5

.259

-$2

$11

Rick Ankiel

WAS

400

46

16

50

3

.240

-$11

$7

Jon Jay

SLN

400

44

5

38

8

.266

-$14

$7

Roger Bernadina

WAS

275

31

5

28

13

.260

-$19

$5

Tony Gwynn

LAN

341

34

1

23

14

.246

-$21

$4

Mike Cameron

BOS

244

29

8

28

5

.237

-$24

$4

Ben Revere

MIN

188

20

0

15

12

.279

-$29

$4

Chris Dickerson

MIL

250

29

5

25

11

.249

-$22

$4

Chris Denorfia

SDN

289

32

4

28

8

.261

-$22

$4

Trevor Crowe

CLE

225

23

2

19

9

.247

-$28

$3

Eric Patterson

SDN

205

22

4

21

10

.247

-$27

$2

Aaron Rowand

SFN

245

28

6

26

2

.255

-$26

$1

Chris Heisey

CIN

184

22

5

22

4

.258

-$29

$1

Nate McLouth hit well in September (.275/.345/.549) after a horrific season full of poor production and injuries. That merits a cheap, sleeper-style bid in 2011 auctions. Carlos Gomez has the potential to be better than this now that Ken Macha and his anti-stealing ways are out of town, but his PECOTA line is even uglier than Bourjos's. Michael Brantley will steal some bases but is basically a pointless commodity outside of AL-only leagues. Franklin Gutierrez has the same issue, unless you're in a Scoresheet league where you can leverage his production against lefties, and his defense as well. Nyjer Morgan has fallen a long way in the space of a year. Cameron Maybin is a player I like to produce eventually, but moving from Florida to San Diego is not going to help him on a superficial level.

Lorenzo Cain should get plenty of playing time in Kansas City—his competition is Melky Cabrera—but PECOTA isn't sure he's ready to provide much in the way of offensive value just yet. Cody Ross is another player who is more useful in something like Scoresheet or an NL-only league, thanks to his huge platoon splits and defensive ability. Jon Jay should pick up some more playing time with Jim Edmonds now retired, but that doesn't make him any more exciting. You hear that, La Russa?

Roger Bernadina might be more intriguing with more playing time, but it doesn't look like he'll get it in Washington unless someone goes down with an injury. Tony Gwynn can contribute stolen bases and is free from Petco Park, but even without his home park dragging him down he's not going to do much with the bat. Mike Cameron will have much more value than this if one of Boston's outfielders goes down—he's still capable of producing as a starter, but he doesn't have a starter's job.

Ben Revere is a quality prospect—Kevin Goldstein recently gave him a four-star ranking and ranked him fourth in the Twins Top 11—but he won't get much playing time this year unless one of the Twins' regulars goes down with an injury. Chris Denorfia might be more intriguing if the Padres move Ryan Ludwick during the season. The rest of the list is basically roster filler in deep leagues, but hey, at least they project to be worth a positive amount of money. 

32 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

R.A.Wagman

I appreciate the articles, and I get that not all 1-star guys get a comment, but I should point out that 3-star CF's Brett Gardner and Angel Pagan also went uncommented upon.

Feb 23, 2011 04:28 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

I wrote about them yesterday in the left field rankings. Sometimes I figure you guys don't want me to repeat myself on every one of these players.

Feb 23, 2011 07:13 AM
rating: 0
 
Jack Thomas

Marc, do you plan to do overall ranking for outfielders (not broken down by LF, CF & RF)?

Feb 23, 2011 08:12 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Thanks to some innovations in the PFM, you will actually be able to do that on your own. Once we've loaded up the rest of my outfielder rankings into the PFM (which should happen today) you can set "Show Expert Rankings" to "Yes" in the Configuration Opens of the PFM. Then filter by outfield, and sort the rankings column. It will show you every outfielder I have ranked, organized by tier. Then you can even export it to Excel so you can play with it from there.

I planned on doing a blog post about this once they were all loaded into the system, but since you asked, now you know sooner.

Feb 23, 2011 08:22 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

A little surprised that Colby Rasmus doesn't rank higher here.

Feb 23, 2011 08:29 AM
rating: 2
 
jrbauche

Maybe I don't understand something, but is the point of the PECOTA projections to get it spot on or is it to be close without going over?

Here's what I noticed in the article:

Torres - should do better than his PECOTA
Stubbs - should do better than his PECOTA
Granderson - should do better than his PECOTA
Beltran - should do better than his PECOTA

Plus, PECOTA has 0 CF hitting 29 HR or more. For that matter only 6 CF will hit 20.

This system seems overly pessimistic to me to the point of ridiculous.

Feb 23, 2011 09:06 AM
rating: 0
 
Ogremace

Last year only 7 players who were predominantly starting CF hit 20 or more HR, and only 3 hit over 29, the most being 34. If we include those who also played LF or RF substantially, it's 9 players. Doesn't seem ridiculous to me.

Feb 23, 2011 09:33 AM
rating: 1
 
jrbauche

So they're estimating that less players will hit 20 or more and less players will hit 28 or more. Maybe ridiculous isn't the right word, but that does seem over-cautious to me. Plus, the author himself even said on a few players that he expects the projection to be low and I didn't notice any player where he expected the projection to be too high.

It seems like PECOTA's projection for every player (not just CF) is low and therefore, it will probably be wrong for about half of the players (or more).

Feb 23, 2011 09:41 AM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

I think it depends on which PECOTA projection is used. Remember it's a scale, not a single number (or line of numbers).

Feb 23, 2011 10:53 AM
rating: 1
 
jrbauche

I understand that. But when they post the lines on here what projection are they using and why?

Feb 23, 2011 11:10 AM
rating: 0
 
Brian Kopec

PECOTA (or any half decent projection system) is not a good measure as to what you should expect at the extremes of a given population. It's trying to give you a prediction for each individual. Some of the individuals will outperform. Some will underperform. Just because PECOTA doesn't project anyone to hit 40 home runs, or win 17 games, or hit .330 doesn't mean PECOTA is predicting nobody from the population will outperform their expectations to those extents.

Feb 23, 2011 11:30 AM
rating: 3
 
jrbauche

Then what good does it do me for fantasy purposes? Anybody can "project" that Pujols will hit at least .312. And how is projeting Pujols to hit, say, .325 an extreme? Considering he's never hit .312 before I'd say it's an extreme to project he'll do that in 2011.

And I flat out don't understand this sentence:

Just because PECOTA doesn't project anyone to hit 40 home runs, or win 17 games, or hit .330 doesn't mean PECOTA is predicting nobody from the population will outperform their expectations to those extents.

So what you're saying is PECOTA is great despite the fact that it's going to be incorrect on most players. Oh I get it...see it's not the system that's at fault if Carlos Gonzalez hits 38 home runs, it's just that he "outperformed".

Feb 23, 2011 12:30 PM
rating: -1
 
Guancous

The PECOTA weighted means aren't the final number either. This will become more obvious when the player cards come out. PECOTA lists a range and beta of provided outputs.

Let's say Player A and Player B both have a weighted mean of .300/.400/.500. Player A has done it 10 years in a row. Player B has a 50% chance of going .200/.300/.400 and 50% chance of going .400/.500/.600, MVP/Time's Man of the Year.

Who do you take? Probably Player 1 early and Player 2 later in the draft unless you can adopt more risk.

Don't focus on PECOTA's stat lines. Look at how players compare against each other.

Feb 23, 2011 12:47 PM
rating: 1
 
R.A.Wagman

PECOTA may in fact be projecting a whole wad of players to hit .330 or smash 45 home runs, but they have only released the 50th percentile projections, which by nature, are conservative. When the player cards are released (very soon?) we will see how many players top various benchmarks at their 60th percentile, 70th, etc. does that make more sense?

Feb 23, 2011 12:57 PM
rating: 1
 
Brian Kopec

I think you misunderstand what a forecasting system is all about. Instead you want a hunch-casting system.

If I asked you right now to predict what the high temperature will be like for every day in the first week in July in Chicago, wouldn't you predict whatever the average was over the last X number of years for each day? So your predictions might look something like this:

80 - 80 - 80 - 81 - 81 - 81 - 81.

Does that mean you think the high temperature won't EVER get above 81 during that week? Does that mean you think the high temperature won't ever be below 80?

Keep in mind...the larger the sample size, the more accurate you should be in the aggregate. But in a larger sample size you'll also have a greater chance for some extreme data points meaning that your biggest misses will be bigger.

Feb 23, 2011 13:26 PM
rating: 4
 
jrbauche

Well...if I were in a weather forecasting league, I would only pay money to the meteorologist willing to give me more for my money rather than just giving me the averages.


Feb 23, 2011 13:32 PM
rating: 0
 
Brian Kopec

I can provide you with my psychic player predictions for a price. Same reliability as a meteorologist who is willing to predict in February that you'll have a sunny 92 degree day for your July 4th picnic.

Feb 23, 2011 16:06 PM
rating: 2
 
jrbauche

Really you're just proving my point. My point is I can look at the averages myself and come up with a reasonable projection. To me, these articles would be better if they were written with the 90 percentile or 10 percentile numbers because then you could talk floors and ceilings of certain players.

Feb 24, 2011 04:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Brian Kopec

Well that's a completely different point. Your original question was, 'What was the point of PECOTA?' What you really wanted to ask was 'What was the point of using the weighted means in this article?'

I've never quite understood the 90/10 percentile stuff PECOTA puts out anyway.

Feb 24, 2011 07:26 AM
rating: 0
 
Patrick

When they release the player cards, you'll be able to see more than the weighted means.

There seems to be a lot more "PECOTA is wrong, the projections are too low" this year, but the weighted means are underwhelming EVERY year. If you want a system that spits out just a number - one that's almost assuredly going to be wrong - that you can plug in and play fantasy without thinking, this is probably not for you. PECOTA gets its strength from nuance and it's important to understand how it works to fully use it. Predicting EXACTLY how a player will perform in the future is much harder than people want to believe, bordering on impossible.

Feb 24, 2011 06:51 AM
rating: 0
 
RaysProf

The most accurate statement one can make on this subject is that PECOTA is will be wrong on every player. You can trace this argument back to the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

Feb 23, 2011 13:50 PM
rating: 0
 
Joe D.

"You don't talk about thermodynamics"?

Feb 23, 2011 14:33 PM
rating: 2
 
RaysProf

0th law: you are in the game
1st law: you can't win the game
2nd law: you can't even get close
3rd law: (...well, many don't consider a law, but if it is, in the end) everyone dies at the end of the game.

Feb 24, 2011 10:11 AM
rating: 0
 
jetson
(660)

This list seems wild to me. Rios > Rasmus? Really? Does somebody think that?

Feb 23, 2011 17:32 PM
rating: 0
 
Joe D.

In fantasy baseball, I don't see what's so surprising about saying Rios > Rasmus...

2010:
Rios: .284, 21 HR, 34 SB, 88 RBI, 89 Runs
Rasmus: .276, 23 HR, 12 SB, 66 RBI, 85 Runs

What makes Rasmus such a slam-dunk over Rios that you're that surprised by the relative rankings?

Feb 23, 2011 21:05 PM
rating: 1
 
jetson
(660)

Because there's like zero evidence that 2010 is Rios' actual level of ability?

Feb 24, 2011 08:48 AM
rating: -1
 
Marc Normandin

Rios is a career .281/.331/.446 hitter who has averaged 30 steals a year the last three seasons. He hit .284/.334/.457 last year with Chicago, with 34 SB. His entire career is evidence that 2010 is his actual level of ability.

Feb 24, 2011 09:15 AM
rating: 0
 
jetson
(660)

That's cherrypicking your facts (using 3 year stats for SB, career slash stats and ignoring homers). Fact- in 7 years, he's hit 20 homers twice and he's had 30 steals twice. I'm assuming fantasy leagues don't highly reward slugging % itself, but again, that may be part of my problem, which is that my finding this comical has more to do with comparing these guys in real life.

Feb 24, 2011 10:13 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Trying to compare real-life value to fantasy value is oftentimes not a 1:1 relationship. I would rather have Rasmus in real life and going forward, but that's not what these rankings are for.

Feb 24, 2011 10:27 AM
rating: 0
 
jetson
(660)

Fair enough though I think my prior point still stands.

I also think Rasmus is a 30-20 guy, and Rios will be a 20-25 guy now, and within 2 years, 18-8 or something like that.

Feb 24, 2011 11:09 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll see Rasmus steal 20 bases. He hasn't stolen that many since A-ball in 2006, and the Cardinals are almost always well below average in steals. I'd suggest that Rasmus owners should be content with a repeat of his 12-SB season, and happy if he reaches 15.

I do like Colby's power, and agree that in real-life terms, there's no real comparison between Rios and Rasmus.

Feb 24, 2011 11:35 AM
 
Joe D.

Also worth noting: Rasmus struck out a ton last season...he has no chance of sniffing a .275 batting average again with that many Ks. This is another a reason Rios is the better fantasy pick for 2011.

(Of course, I also quite easily take Rasmus if we're talking real baseball...)

Feb 26, 2011 01:34 AM
rating: 0
 
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Fantasy Focus: Right F... (02/24)
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