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February 17, 2011

Fantasy Focus

First Base Rankings

by Marc Normandin

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Today we kick off our annual fantasy rankings, starting with first basemen. Check back at noon Eastern today for the second base rankings!

Like last year, the fantasy rankings are broken into tiers. Generally speaking, five-star players should be worthwhile in five categories and have an auction dollar value of $30 or more in your standard, mixed leagues. Four-star players should be worth at least $20 and useful in four categories, three-stars $10 and up, two-stars are more of your single-digit buys that you hope fill a hole or return some bargain value, and one-star players are, most likely, roster filler in the deepest leagues that you hope can be worth the buck you throw down on them.

This year we are listing stats like we have in the past (plate appearances, average, R, RBI, SB and HR projections from PECOTA) but are also including dollar value estimates produced by the Player Forecast Manager. In order to make these columns fit into the tables, I had to shorten them: "2L-$" is for mixed leagues, and "1L-$" is for AL- or NL-only leagues, depending on the player. The dollar values may not always match up with the tiers perfectly, but those are just cases of PECOTA and I disagreeing on a player.

For reference, the dollar values were created with the PFM using standard 5x5 roto scoring, 23-player rosters—broken down as C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) Util (1) P (9)—and $180 of the $260 budget allocated for hitters and $1 minimum salaries. A minimum of 20 games needed to be played at a position in the previous season to qualify (though I snuck a few brand new first basemen in). If your league uses different settings, be sure to plug them into the PFM to see what kind of differences in dollar value we are talking about—I set these to be as close to standard roster construction as possible.

Five Stars

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

SB

RBI

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Albert Pujols

SLN

650

104

35

10

105

.312

$39

$33

Miguel Cabrera

DET

640

94

31

4

99

.307

$30

$27

Adrian Gonzalez

BOS

685

96

30

1

96

.281

$24

$23

Joey Votto

CIN

650

95

30

11

97

.298

$31

$29

Pujols is first; I'm sure this shocked the lot of you. Miguel Cabrera is going to have more than 95 R and 97 RBI in 2011 (as will the rest of these elite first basemen), but the projections for those stats almost always tend to be conservative with PECOTA. The good news is that the dollar values are created with a relative sense in mind—if R and RBI are depressed for everyone, and Cabrera is near the top, it's the same as it would be if you bumped everyone up by 10 of each stat. Cabrera closed the gap between himself and Pujols a bit more than these dollar values let on, but his best year was the equivalent of a Pujols down year, meaning he shouldn't catch or surpass him.

I've rated Adrian Gonzalez with what will presumably be his 90th percentile projection in mind. PECOTA isn't a huge fan of the slugger at present thanks to the switch to the stronger American League and his 2010 season that was hindered by a bum shoulder almost the entirety of the year. In Boston's stacked lineup, out of Petco, and healthy, Gonzalez should rank ahead of everyone except Pujols at first. Problem is, we're not entirely sure when his shoulder will be 100 percent—it could be Opening Day, or it could take a month for the Sox new first baseman to get into the swing of things. I would be very surprised if Gonzalez didn't obliterate his forecast here, though.

I mentioned in the first base rankings review that Votto may have played himself into the five-star category, and his projection agrees with that sentiment.

Four Stars

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

SB

RBI

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Prince Fielder

MIL

670

98

36

3

99

.274

$28

$25

Mark Teixeira

NYA

660

93

32

1

95

.275

$23

$23

Adam Dunn

CHA

656

92

38

2

95

.248

$22

$23

Kevin Youkilis

BOS

628

88

22

5

83

.285

$17

$22

Ryan Howard

PHI

670

93

40

3

106

.262

$28

$25

Prince Fielder has not been consistent in his career—he has never posted an ISO in the .200s or .300s in consecutive seasons. Starting in 2006, his first full season, Fielder's ISO has been.212, .330, .231, .303, and .210 in 2010. Given the pattern, we'll see another ISO over .300 this year just to spite fantasy owners who have given up on him. If there were fewer first basemen to choose from, I would be tempted to pop him back into the five-star range, but given his inconsistency and the other options available, he ends up (fittingly) next-in-line for the first base throne.

Teixeira had a down year in 2010, hitting .256/.365/.481, though batting in the middle of the Yankee lineup allowed him to crack the 100 R and RBI barriers. If he repeats that line, he'll be valuable, but chances are good that that was a blip and we will see some improvement on the already useful fantasy line that PECOTA has predicted. Dunn just snuck into the four-star range in 2010, but this time around, he has The Cell at his back—expect to see lots of homers, and plenty of RBI to offset the lower batting average.

Kevin Youkilis' forecast is pretty low—expect a batting average maybe 20 points higher, a few more homers, and much more from the R and RBI departments given his placement in the Red Sox lineup. Ryan Howard may be slipping, but he hits in the middle of the Phillies' lineup and still hits homers in bunches. He's too good to be a three-star player, but maybe not good enough to be any higher than this.

Three Stars

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

SB

RBI

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Buster Posey

SFN

500

66

16

1

64

.289

$20

$15

Billy Butler

KCA

655

84

16

1

79

.294

$13

$18

Paul Konerko

CHA

625

84

30

1

87

.270

$16

$21

Justin Morneau

MIN

550

75

21

1

76

.286

$9

$17

Kendry Morales

ANA

650

83

25

3

89

.284

$18

$21

Mike Napoli

TEX

446

57

22

5

61

.251

$17

$14

Carlos Pena

CHN

625

82

33

3

82

.230

$11

$16

Posey gets extra credit for being a catcher. Sadly he won't pick up as much playing time as the rest of these guys due to his backstop duties, but he'll make the most of the ones he does get. Billy Butler was covered in loads of detail by Craig Brown earlier this winter, so check that out if you missed it. Paul Konerko probably won't be the beast he was in 2010, but he should approach either the 100 R or 100 RBI mark now that the White Sox employ an actual hitter at the DH spot and not Mark Kotsay. Justin Morneau is a four-star talent who sustained a concussion, and your guess is as good as mine in terms of how he will be when he returns. Some players return from severe concussions fine, and other players end up like Corey Koskie. Morneau is a good bet to deliver production if he's healthy, but with the other first basemen available, I wouldn't pop down any of my auction money on him unless the price were low.

Assuming Kendry Morales doesn't get all overzealous with the celebrations again this year, he should be able to retain the use of all of his appendages, and send a few baseballs into orbit before the season ends. Mike Napoli is a three-star prospect if he gets more playing time than is listed above—that hinges on Michael Young being moved in a trade to free up DH appearances for the slugging catcher. If Young sticks with the Rangers, Napoli's value takes a hit, and he becomes a pretty useful catcher and not so useful first baseman. I like Carlos Pena in Wrigley a lot—the left-hander with serious pull power is a perfect fit for Wrigley Park, and I can see him exceeding that projected homer total, albeit while hitting .230 as suggested above.

Two Stars

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

SB

RBI

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Gaby Sanchez

FLO

625

78

18

7

74

.271

$10

$17

Derrek Lee

BAL

600

78

20

4

74

.276

$9

$18

Aubrey Huff

SFN

611

75

18

3

73

.263

$6

$14

Lance Berkman

SLN

608

81

22

8

73

.264

$11

$18

Adam Lind

TOR

644

80

26

1

90

.264

$14

$19

Adam LaRoche

WAS

625

77

23

2

81

.258

$9

$16

Carlos Lee

HOU

637

77

24

6

83

.268

$14

$19

Michael Cuddyer

MIN

650

78

15

6

73

.264

$7

$17

Ike Davis

NYN

650

77

17

2

70

.252

$4

$13

Kila Ka'aihue

KCA

682

94

30

1

85

.261

$18

$20

Brad Hawpe

SDN

575

72

18

3

67

.251

$2

$12

Freddie Freeman

ATL

570

66

14

2

66

.264

$1

$12

Matt LaPorta

CLE

666

81

24

1

80

.246

$9

$16

James Loney

LAN

650

77

11

8

67

.276

$7

$16

Mitch Moreland

TEX

547

68

17

2

67

.272

$3

$14

Gaby Sanchez is a solid pick here—just make sure you don't overpay for him, as he's the kind of guy you get at a low price and enjoy because it allowed you to spend elsewhere. Derrek Lee is much the same way, as he's another player in a solid lineup that should score some runs, but not a ton of them. I like Aubrey Huff more than his projection, as his newly patient approach worked out well for him in 2010, but that's why he's near the top of the two-star pile, and not down below in the one-star group. Lance Berkman will have outfield and first base eligibility, and while hitting in Busch Stadium won't do him any favors, a healthy season should help him improve on his 2010 and earn back some of his past value. I'm not touching Adam Lind with any of my draft picks or auction money until he learns how to hit lefties more effectively.

Adam LaRoche is basically the Two and a Half Men of fantasy baseball (without the strippers and jail time, though maybe Charlie Sheen could hook him up), as he's safe and therefore enjoyed by a large audience. He's just so boring though, and there are better things you could be spending your time on. Carlos Lee has outfield and first base eligibility, but his bounce back in the second half amounted to a .242/.296/.442 line, so I'm not exactly waiting with open arms for his 2011 campaign. Michael Cuddyer has multi-position eligibility, which makes him useful in deep leagues, but he can hold his own at a low price if necessary in shallower ones.

I like Ike Davis. PECOTA…not so much. I suggested he was a better fit to hold onto than Gaby Sanchez due to his age and upside—while that may not show through immediately in 2011 due to that same youth I just praised, it should pay off in the end. Kila Ka'aihue has more PA projected here than I think he'll get, but if he earns a regular job right out of spring training, he may be worth more than this ranking suggests—he hit .274/.361/.548 in September following a dreadful August with the Royals. PECOTA sure does like him, which counts for something. Brad Hawpe dealt with injuries in 2010, but it turns out those bruised ribs he had in Colorado and Tampa Bay were actually fractured ribs. That changes his 2011 outlook a bit, though the status of his ribs doesn't change the fact that the left-hander now has to hit in Petco for half the year.

I'm a fan of the Free Man, but let me remind all citizens of the dangers of magical thinking: PECOTA doesn't think he's going to tear up the majors in his rookie campaign, though I'm inclined to believe his final line will be better than what has been forecasted, especially as he faces more and more big league pitching. Matt LaPorta is listed with a zillion plate appearances because the Indians don't have another first baseman on their roster (no, really). He's down here because he makes me nervous, and because he won't have that many plate appearances by year's end. Plus, he burned me last year when I placed faith in him, so now I'm a jilted fantasy lover.

James Loney benefits from a secure first base job that will net him plenty of plate appearances. Sadly, this doesn't change the fact that he is, in fact, James Loney, and therefore hits like James Loney, which is to say, not much at all. If Moreland's job were more secure, I would bump him ahead of Loney, because there is a lot to like about someone who plays half their games in Texas in the midst of a productive lineup. Chris Davis exists though, and Texas has been notoriously quick on the trigger when it comes to their first basemen the past few seasons.

One Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

SB

RBI

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Dan Johnson

TBA

530

70

25

0

67

.244

$2

$14

Daric Barton

OAK

600

70

9

3

53

.245

-$4

$10

Justin Smoak

SEA

650

74

17

1

61

.235

-$1

$12

Xavier Nady

ARI

512

61

15

2

62

.269

-$1

$11

Brett Wallace

HOU

600

68

18

0

67

.249

$0

$11

Melvin Mora

ARI

532

60

11

5

55

.259

-$3

$10

Lyle Overbay

PIT

574

68

14

1

62

.248

-$1

$10

Todd Helton

COL

450

59

9

0

47

.288

-$6

$8

Ty Wigginton

COL

392

48

14

2

49

.268

-$7

$8

Jorge Cantu

SDN

380

43

9

1

41

.255

-$15

$5

Eric Hinske

ATL

296

35

10

3

33

.236

-$20

$3

Juan Miranda

ARI

200

24

7

0

24

.248

-$28

$1

This is worse than shopping in that $1 section at Target that is directly in front of you when you enter the store. Most of these guys are basically the kind of knickknacks you scoop up for no other reason than hey, it was just one dollar, but there might be a few hidden gems here. Dan Johnson, if he retains the first base job, should be a suitable Carlos Pena substitute, in that he too can hit for a low batting average but get on base often and clear the fence on enough swings to keep him interesting. Daric Barton won't contribute to power, but if he exceeds this ugly batting average and keeps his on-base percentage high, he should score some runs and be worthwhile in a deep, AL-only league. Justin Smoak will be useful if he hits, though given that Seattle's front office liked him as a hitter, he's probably doomed.

Xavier Nady is a solid buy at the end of an auction or draft if Arizona plays him as often as we think they will. Same goes for Melvin Mora, and if Eric Hinske gets a lot of playing time—if/when Chipper Jones goes down and Martin Prado moves back to third base, there is a possibility for a whole lot more Hinske in Atlanta's life—he fits the bill, too. Lyle Overbay and Brett Wallace aren't thrilling, and they play for teams that aren't going to score runs in bunches. Try not to let the excitement of the NL Central's basement keep you from finishing this article.

Ty Wigginton is useful for his versatility, as you can plug him in almost anywhere if one of your starters goes down. Juan Miranda may end up with more at-bats at first base than this, but that's not clear at present—personally, I'm rooting for Micah Owings to come away with most of the playing time there. (Note: I wrote that sentence before I saw that the Diamondbacks signed Russell Branyan to play first. While we don't have his dollar values just yet--this is hot off the presses, you know—he's very similar to Carlos Pena. Hitter-friendly home park, susceptible to left-handed pitchers, but just loads of precious, precious power.) Todd Helton might help in batting average, but I'm not convinced he will see this much playing time, due to either injuries, an upgrade, or the sheer volume of corner guys the Rox amassed this winter.

Remember, the second base rankings will be up later today, so be sure to check back for them.

38 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

omarwhite

Shouldn't Posey just be listed at the position he is significantly more valuable catcher, rather than first base. Put another way, it would be very surprising to draft (or pay for Posey) based on his first base creds. Similarly, Youk is really a third basemen (although he might be a four star there as well).

Feb 17, 2011 05:53 AM
rating: 1
 
mikebuetow

I see your point, but I would request that all players be ranked at positions at which they generally would qualify in fantasy. The truth is, we don't always draft guys to use at their primary positions, and doing it Marc's way gives we drafters a much better idea of what we are getting.


Feb 17, 2011 07:39 AM
rating: 1
 
Marc Normandin

Posey is not being listed solely at first base, so don't worry about it. Same with Youkilis. Both of them will be listed at multiple positions, and their star rankings will be the same across all positions. The important thing is that Posey and Youkilis are four-star players, and the tiers just help you see how many of those there are at each position.

Feb 17, 2011 09:31 AM
rating: 0
 
hessshaun

Is it to late to ask for rate stat columns to be included in the future rankings?

Looks good and I am really glad that you have Ka'aihue ranked properly.

Feb 17, 2011 06:10 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

That was the one thing I thought I could get away with cutting, since usually everyone complained that there was no need for the rate stats. :-)

Feb 17, 2011 09:31 AM
rating: 0
 
hessshaun

We use them and actually everyone is universal in that they like it, because it's generally easy to find.

Feb 17, 2011 12:56 PM
rating: 0
 
davinhbrown

"Try not to let the excitement of the NL Central's basement keep you from finishing this article."

got a good chuckle there.

Feb 17, 2011 06:39 AM
rating: 1
 
bctowns

Kendry Morales seems low doesn't he? The injury was a fluke and should heal cleanly. If he hits like 2009, doesn't that merit at least four stars? I think PECOTA and Marc are gonna regret this one.

Feb 17, 2011 06:48 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

I rated him as four stars last year, but, regardless of the injury, he wasn't performing at a four-star rate before he was injured. I think he's a better fit for three, as I mentioned well before PECOTA came out in the first base rankings review.

Feb 17, 2011 09:23 AM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

Todd Helton won't hit one HR.

Feb 17, 2011 07:27 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Maybe not intentionally!

Feb 17, 2011 09:40 AM
rating: 0
 
Edwincnelson

Morales' injury didn't heal cleanly though. As of right now he has a huge pin and 6 screws holding his ankle together and cannot run (job a little) or participate in any defensive drills. He hasn't been able to do any offseason conditioning and has gained somewhere around 10-15 pounds. It was a horrible break, and I'm not sure he will ever completely recover from it.

Feb 17, 2011 07:29 AM
rating: 0
 
mwball75

Marc, appreciate the article. and all the facts you've used in here to back up your rankings.

I'd like to also see in addition to what the PFM calculates for these players what you, yourself would pay in a NL, AL, or BOTH league.

For example, I would never pay 16$ for LaPorta in a mixed league.

This would be for the sake of identifying value...

Thanks.

Feb 17, 2011 07:35 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Well, this is why I put players into tiers that I related to auction values. I put LaPorta into the two-star range, so the chances of me paying more than $9 for him (or really, more than $5 given his placement within the tier) are very slim.

Feb 17, 2011 09:29 AM
rating: 0
 
SteveR61

Shouldn't Kevin Youkilis be listed in the Third Base Rankings?

Feb 17, 2011 07:35 AM
rating: -1
 
Marc Normandin

He will be, but he also has first base eligiblity.

Feb 17, 2011 09:28 AM
rating: 0
 
One Flap Down

Youkilis only played two games at 3B last season with some guy named Beltre manning the position, so he doesn't belong in the 3B rankings by just about any league's definition.

Feb 17, 2011 13:44 PM
rating: 1
 
Cromulent

I don't know about you but the two primary leagues I'm in allow a player to gain position eligibility in 5 and 10 games played during the season, respectively. I assume those thresholds are fairly standard. It's absolutely appropriate to evaluate him as a 3B as far as I can see.

Feb 17, 2011 13:57 PM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

He will be playing there in 2011 though, so he'll be included in both, since he will be eligible after a few games.

Feb 17, 2011 14:11 PM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

Where will Miggy Cabrera be ranked when he sobers up tomorrow?

Feb 17, 2011 07:37 AM
rating: 4
 
dianagram

too soon, dude

Feb 17, 2011 08:04 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

In all serious though, if this is going to be a problem again, Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto would get my auction money ahead of Cabrera.

Feb 17, 2011 09:32 AM
rating: 0
 
David Laurila

I'm surprised to see Daric Barton rated on the bottom tier. He is someone I was hoping would go unprotected in my Scoresheet league, which he predictably wasn't. He offers great OBP and great defense, and should log an ample amount of extra-base hits.

Feb 17, 2011 08:11 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

This list is set up for standard roto though, and Barton is a potential liability in that format.

Feb 17, 2011 09:24 AM
rating: 0
 
adrock

A quick question or two from a new member:

1. The differences in auction values from mixed to 1-league only seem bizarre to me. Is there a reason why Pujols' or Cabrera's values are lower for NL/AL only than for a mixed league? For my 12-team AL only league, the Cabrera value, for example, would be low by at least $10.

2. I like Kila Ka'aihue as much as the next guy, but once I tweaked the PFM for our league's specifics, his auction value, with rounding, was the same as that for Kevin Youkilis. I take all of these rankings with a grain of salt, but that sort of result really makes me question the value of the dollar figures in the spreadsheet (even if the rest of the information and the analysis is very helpful).

Is it just Kila love inside the machine, or is there anything else I should be wary of?

Feb 17, 2011 08:36 AM
rating: 2
 
Marc Normandin

There are some different theories about how auction values should work for elite players in AL- and NL-only leagues. The PFM believes that, since there is less talent, the prices for your more average players should increase, rather than at the top. This makes it so you can avoid signing terrible filler for the back-end of your roster that will drag down your performance. The prices for players in the three- and two-star range in single league style play are closer to elite prices for that reason. It's supply-and-demand, but with more focus on saving you from the worst the league has to offer rather than just acquiring the very best you can in one fell swoop.

Feb 17, 2011 09:27 AM
rating: 0
 
adrock

Marc, thanks very much for the speedy reply.

I'm not sure if I buy the logic entirely, but ever since tying up too much money in Carl Crawford and Alfonso Soriano way back when I've tended to avoid superstars, so perhaps I intuitively agree with the principle, and the discomfort with the specific dollar values are just a question of degree.

Cheers.

Feb 17, 2011 09:33 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

I also set the spending to "Moderate", which tries to balance out money--if you set it to aggressive, the difference is still there, but more money is allocated to the elite in a stars-and-scrubs model.

Feb 17, 2011 09:39 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Sorry, forgot to reply to the Kila portion of the question.

Youkilis' projection is a bit low in every department except for steals. I mentioned my dislike for his weighted-mean projection in the article, so in my mind, he's worth more like $25--if the percentile projections we use (which give higher and lower outcomes for players) were available right now, I would have cited Youkilis' 70th or 90th percentile most likely. His three-year line is .308/.404/.560, so I'm kind of curious as to why PECOTA isn't enamored with him.

Kila's is probably a few bucks too high, if only because of the number of plate appearances he is projected for. If Kila wins a job out of spring training though, he may play all season between first base and DH and get close to that total, which would make him more valuable than where I ranked him.

Feb 17, 2011 09:38 AM
rating: 0
 
adrock

Marc, these types of responses are very helpful and the type of thing that makes one's new membership feel worthwhile.

I will try the "Aggressive" setting in the PFM and see if that looks more familiar. Thanks again!

Feb 17, 2011 10:10 AM
rating: 0
 
wilykat

as for the comment early on about R and RBI:

"the projections for those stats almost always tend to be conservative with PECOTA"

What does this mean? Does PECOTA predict a lower run-scoring environment in general (and is it overly optimistic about pitchers) or is it thinking that more runs and RBI will be taken up by mid-range players or by AAA players or what?

Feb 17, 2011 11:49 AM
rating: 0
 
acmcdowell

It's not that PECOTA projects a low run environment. It's that breakouts and collapses can be very hard to predict. Growth and career path can be projected, but things like home runs just clearing the fence, balls finding gaps, etc can be really difficult, since much of it is simply luck. PECOTA isn't saying that the league leader in home runs will be Ryan Howard with 40, it's that based on the projections, Ryan Howard is our best guess. Someone could break out unexpectedly, get lucky with balls just clearing the wall, or any number of other things.

Feb 17, 2011 12:50 PM
rating: 0
 
wilykat

Although I agree with you, I think you may be missing the point of what I was asking. The run and RBI projections for Miguel Cabrera aren't happening in a vacuum; if you say that "we don't know who's going to break out so we're going to project that nobody has an outstanding performance", that makes sense, but if you extend that logic to everyone in the game, I don't think all the numbers will add up.

Granted that variance exists, it is still the case that either:

PECOTA predicts approximately the same number of runs/RBI to be produced that will actually happen in the real world; in this case, the runs and RBI that aren't assigned to the top-tier players are being assigned elsewhere, either to lower-end players or minor leaguers who might get called up or something.

or

PECOTA predicts fewer runs and RBI than will be produced in the real world, which holds down the numbers for all players equally but also inflates the projected performance of the pitchers who will give up those fewer runs.

or, I guess

PECOTA predicts fewer runs and RBI for hitters and is not concerned with making sure that the offensive production generated by hitters' projections matches up with the run-prevention generated by pitchers' and fielders' projections.

Feb 17, 2011 13:17 PM
rating: 1
 
acmcdowell

I did miss the point of your question, sorry. I think it balances out, in that they don't know who is going to break out, or who is going to underperform. Of your three options, I think the first makes the most sense. One other thing to consider is that there will be plenty of top tier players that will fall short of their relatively modest projections.

Feb 18, 2011 21:43 PM
rating: 0
 
AlexMcCrum

A little more on Kila...once I set my PFM to my league (H2H points, with a few quirks), he's listed as the 16th most valuable player in baseball. Given that he gets the starting job, how comfortable are you with that projection? Do I need to make ABSOLUTELY sure I get him? Or is this more of a Matt Weiters rookie season thing, where PECOTA likes him just a bit too much?

Feb 17, 2011 16:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

I don't think you need to be absolutely sure you get anyone in the two-star tier. I like him, and I think he'll be solid, but there are too many questions surrounding his playing time and long-term MLB viability right now for me to go out of my way to acquire him.

PECOTA could be a tad overzealous, but to be fair, he did crush Triple-A.

Feb 17, 2011 17:17 PM
rating: 0
 
dougna99

No Garrett Jones for 1B? He's still eligible there - would you rank him near Overbay?

Feb 18, 2011 11:16 AM
rating: 0
 
brucegilsen
(999)

I'm in a 4x4 old school NL only roto keeper league, 25 players / $280 and can keep Jones for year 3 at $10. I'm planning to do so. He's better than several of the 1 star guys IMHO, and if you look at his splits, the fact that he's supposed to platoon means the loss of a modest number of HRs and RBIs and a decent improvement to batting average, other things equal.

Feb 27, 2011 15:38 PM
rating: 0
 
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