After being the highest bidder at nearly $17 million, the Athletics now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. This will be Billy Beane’s first attempt at signing a Japanese player through the posting process. Oakland, the team notoriously known for its Moneyball managerial style, has never dished out this kind of money on an international player. Does he deserve the dough? Here’s what the righty did while pitching in Japan:
Hisashi Iwakuma Age 29 Year Team G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR 2001 Osaka Kintet 9 8 43.3 48 31 4 12 20 6.44 2 3 10.0 2.5 4.2 20 3 2002 Osaka Kintet 23 1 136.0 139 80 13 50 96 5.29 6 9 9.2 3.3 6.4 28 19 2003 Osaka Kintet 27 0 193.0 205 91 23 50 118 4.24 11 10 9.6 2.3 5.5 19 37 2004 Osaka Kintet 21 0 162.0 151 62 16 31 103 3.44 11 7 8.4 1.7 5.7 25 40 2005 Rakuten 27 27 186.7 205 127 23 48 100 6.12 7 14 9.9 2.3 4.8 0 15 2006 Rakuten 6 6 39.7 43 23 6 15 12 5.22 2 2 9.8 3.4 2.7 -16 2 2007 Rakuten 16 16 93.7 94 62 10 29 70 5.96 4 6 9.0 2.8 6.7 14 11 2008 Rakuten 28 28 206.3 161 65 6 45 129 2.84 16 7 7.0 2.0 5.6 42 63 2009 Rakuten 24 24 168.3 187 73 20 47 96 3.90 11 8 10.0 2.5 5.1 4 32 2010 Rakuten 28 0 206.7 191 84 17 42 119 3.66 14 9 8.3 1.8 5.2 22 49 Totals 20 10 140.8 139 68 13 36 84 4.38 8 7 8.9 2.3 5.4 19 26
Iwakuma’s repertoire includes a four-seam fastball (hovers around 91-93 mph), a solid shuuto (the Japanese term for a sinking fastball, topping at 90 mph), an excellent split-finger fastball (86 mph), and an average slider and curve (80 mph and 72 mph, respectively). He has good command, good control, and as Kevin Goldstein told me, a windup with “classic Asian deception.”
Mike Fast in his BP Unfiltered post stated that Iwakuma’s splitter is the only pitch that strikes him as “an above-average major-league pitch.” Regarding the rest of Iwakuma’s arsenal, Fast is “somewhat skeptical whether they will play against major-league hitters.”
However, major-league hitters did get a quick glimpse of Iwakuma while pitching for Japan in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, Iwakuma was 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. He walked six batters and struck out 15 with a 0.90 WHIP. Iwakuma showed in his four appearances (three starts) that he’s primarily a groundball pitcher, but get a strikeout when needed. Luckily, he will have a tremendous infield behind him in Oakland as the A’s were ranked 1st in the Majors with a .713 defensive efficiency.
Here are a few examples of former Japanese League pitchers and how their season averages have translated coming to the states (DERA, or "defense-adjusted," is NERA, translated player's RA from one league into another, plus an adjustment for team-defense):
Hiroki Kuroda Age 35 Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR Majors 31 31 198.5 195 99 20 40 115 4.48 11 10 8.9 1.8 5.2 14 45 Minors 3 3 14.3 16 12 1 2 5 7.53 1 1 10.0 1.3 3.1 -8 0 Japan 25 15 152.8 155 79 17 46 87 4.63 8 8 9.2 2.7 5.2 7 23 Totals 26 19 163.8 165 84 18 45 93 4.61 9 9 9.1 2.5 5.2 9 27 Kenshin Kawakami Age 35 Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR Majors 34 28 177.5 182 96 20 56 96 4.85 9 9 9.3 2.9 4.9 0 6 Minors 5 5 20.3 29 13 7 5 16 5.75 1 1 12.8 2.2 7.1 -7 0 Japan 26 18 163.0 167 81 24 42 99 4.47 9 8 9.3 2.3 5.5 3 26 Totals 27 20 165.9 171 84 24 44 99 4.54 9 9 9.3 2.4 5.4 3 26 Daisuke Matsuzaka Age 29 Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR Majors 32 32 200.0 183 92 17 87 169 4.16 11 10 8.2 3.9 7.6 24 26 Minors 10 10 42.3 39 20 7 11 30 4.25 2 3 8.3 2.3 6.4 7 5 Japan 22 15 157.1 132 66 15 54 127 3.79 10 7 7.6 3.1 7.3 44 36 Totals 26 20 172.0 148 75 16 64 141 3.91 11 8 7.8 3.4 7.4 37 37 Hisanori Takahashi Age 35 Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L SV H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR Majors 43 9 103.3 103 46 14 33 76 4.04 6 4 5 9.0 2.9 6.6 0 14 Japan 29 18 152.0 161 90 25 51 91 5.31 7 9 1 9.5 3.1 5.4 -6 14 Totals 31 16 143.4 151 83 23 48 88 5.19 7 9 2 9.5 3.1 5.5 -6 14 Ryota Igarashi Age 31 Lge G GS IP H ER HR BB K DERA W L SV H/9 BB/9 K/9 STF RAR Majors 34 0 31.0 31 25 5 17 20 7.26 1 2 0 9.0 4.9 5.8 -23 -4 Minors 20 2 24.7 30 12 3 8 19 4.38 2 1 1 10.9 2.9 6.9 0 4 Japan 70 0 75.2 64 36 9 37 65 4.27 4 4 0 7.7 4.5 7.8 12 13 Totals 70 0 75.7 66 37 9 37 64 4.43 4 4 1 7.9 4.4 7.7 10 13
Some Japanese players have been successful (Kuroda), some inconsistent (Matsuzaka), and some have failed completely (Kei Igawa, who is not listed). Now, tell us how you think Iwakuma will fair in the major leagues.
Special thanks to Clay Davenport for data assistance.
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Beane's going aggressive early this offseason, I'm impressed.
This is a very good situation for a pitcher to come into. Great defense, pitchers park, well established rotation where he won't be expected to be a #1.
Kuroda looks like the closest comp, and I've read that comparison before. Iwakuma's Japanese H/BB/K per nine almost identical to Kuroda's MLB numbers. I would expect Iwakuma to perform about like Kuroda with slightly better results thanks to the defense.