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October 17, 2010

Playoff Prospectus

Sunday NLCS Projections

by Colin Wyers

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This is not a must-win game for the Phillies, by definition. (I have little faith this will prevent the broadcasters from calling it just that.) But it's still a key game for them to win.

Being the first seed gives Philadelphia home field advantage - on paper. But that's only if the series goes to a full seven games. Lose tonight's game, and the Phillies would have to win two out of three in San Francisco in order for the series to come back to Philly. So if they can't pull through tonight, they've squandered much of their home field advantage to start the series and dug themselves into a big (but not insurmountable) hole.

The good news for the Phillies faithful? The difference between Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez is greater than the difference between Doc Halladay and Roy Oswalt. That gives them slightly better odds than they had in Saturday night's game, favored at 56.85% by our PECOTA-driven estimates, compared to 43.15% for Los Gigantes. A look at how the Giants hitters project against Oswalt:

 

Hitter

AVG

OBP

SLG

Andres Torres

0.252

0.300

0.425

Freddy Sanchez

0.295

0.323

0.458

Aubrey Huff

0.277

0.325

0.475

Buster Posey

0.276

0.317

0.462

Pat Burrell

0.248

0.322

0.444

Juan Uribe

0.258

0.291

0.447

Cody Ross

0.259

0.304

0.447

Pablo Sandoval

0.290

0.324

0.474

And the Phillies against Sanchez:

 

Hitter

AVG

OBP

SLG

Jimmy Rollins

0.287

0.367

0.494

Shane Victorino

0.286

0.369

0.479

Chase Utley

0.280

0.393

0.495

Ryan Howard

0.242

0.356

0.455

Jayson Werth

0.250

0.372

0.441

Raul Ibanez

0.267

0.358

0.465

Carlos Ruiz

0.277

0.378

0.462

Placido Polanco

0.307

0.370

0.481

So the Phillies are favored to win tonight and even up the series - but not by a lot.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

R.A.Wagman

According to Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, the lineups will be a little bit different than stated here. He says the Giants lineup will be the same as last night, while the Phillies will line-up as Victorino, Utley, Polanco, Howard, Werth, Rollins, Ibanez, Ruiz, Oswalt.
Cheers.

Oct 17, 2010 13:13 PM
rating: 0
 
Tynan

Renteria is starting because Uribe jammed his wrist sliding into second last night...

Oct 17, 2010 16:23 PM
rating: 0
 
crapon01

Speaking of the lack of a true home field advantage, I think it's a disgrace. Hockey gets it right with 2-2-1-1-1. Why can't baseball follow suit. It only tacks on 4 more days over the course of the playoffs.

Oct 18, 2010 05:55 AM
rating: 0
 
BindleStiff

Colin, having lefty-masher Werth as the lowest SLG on the Phillies against Sanchez suggests there might be a small typo. Should Werth's SLG in the table above be .541 rather than .441?

Given Werth's pre-season PECOTA SLG (.513), his 2010 SLG (.532), his career SLG against all lefties (.550) and whatever Citizen Bank park effect is built in to your projections, a projected SLG for Werth of .541 seems about right.

Oct 18, 2010 13:19 PM
rating: 0
 
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