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October 14, 2010

GM for a Day

Kansas City Royals

by John Perrotto

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General manager Dayton Moore has talked about the process of building a winner for so long that it has become a bit of a running gag among the team's fans. When they refer to the Royals' perpetual rebuilding on messages boards and such, they give it the capitalization process, referring to it as The Process.

Well, the process, or The Process, has been slow. The Royals improved by just two wins this season as they went from 65-97 to 67-95. They have lost at least 93 games eight times in the last 10 seasons and this year marked the fifth time in the last six in which the Royals finished last in the American League Central.

However, there are signs that The Process might begin paying off. The Royals have what is generally regarded as the best farm system in baseball and some of those players should be ready to contribute at the major league level in 2011, though 2012 is when the trickle should start turning into a flow of talent.

Knowing the Royals are at least one more year away from being in position to possibly make a serious jump in the standings, this is what I would do if I were the GM:

My first order of business would be to see exactly what the trade market is for right-hander Zack Greinke. He clearly slipped this season, going from 9.9 WARP and the AL Cy Young Award in 2009 to 3.6 this season. More alarming is that he expressed frustration at the slow pace of The Process and openly questioned whether the Royals would be competitive before his contract expires after the 2012 season.

That being said, I would have to be blown away to give up Greinke. I'd need two young controllable pitchers for the starting rotation and two prospects. Chances are good that no will meet that asking price in light of Greinke's slippage, but it wouldn't hurt to ask.

Ownership plans to take the payroll down from $75 million to about $60 million for next season. The Royals do have quite a few contracts coming off the books, including those of Jose Guillen, Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, Juan Cruz, and Kyle Farnsworth. While the payroll reduction doesn't give the Royals room to add many players, the good news is that they have enough internal options to get by until the top prospects start arriving in 2012.

Assuming Greinke isn't dealt, three spots in the rotation are set with him and right-handers Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies. Not a terrific threesome, to be sure, but enough upside there for improvement.

The first impulse would be to re-sign left-hander Bruce Chen, the Royals' only free agent, for the fourth starter spot after he set a career high with 3.1 WARP in his 12th major league season with his 11th team. The Royals have gotten into trouble before by entering into long-term deals with mediocre veterans. Thus, I'd offer Chen one year and that's it. If he wants more, well, good luck finding it somewhere else.

Right-hander Brian Bannister probably has a greater understanding of sabermetrics and advanced baseball analytics of any player in the major leagues. Thus, he will understand that he must be non-tendered after producing just 0.2 SNLVAR and having a VORP of -13.5 while making a $2.3 million salary this year.

There is also right-hander Sean O'Sullivan, though he still needs to earn a job in spring training after being so-so during the final two months of the following his acquisition from the Angels. Spring training would also be an ideal time to see if left-handers Danny Duffy and Everett Teaford are ready to make the jump from Double-A to the low-pressure role of fifth starter.

The other player worth dangling in trade talks is outfielder David DeJesus, whose $6 million option for next season has already been exercised. DeJesus was being pursued by a number of contenders before suffering a season-ending thumb injury on July 22. With his ability to play all three outfield positions, he could seemingly be able to fetch a middle infielder and/or a center fielder with promise, something the Royals lack in the upper levels of their deep system.

There are some interesting pieces in the middle of the lineup, including Billy Butler and Kila Ka'aihue to split first base and designated hitter in some fashion, and left fielder Alex Gordon.

The pickings are slim beyond that group by the Royals at least have players who can be placeholders until better talent comes along, including second baseman Chris Getz, middle infielder Mike Aviles, who could move to third; shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and rookie center fielder Jarrod Dyson, whose speed and defense would play better if he could get on base. Aviles, of course, can play both middle-infield positions with either Wilson Betemit or Josh Fields playing third base. However, the optimal setup would be to have Betemit be a part-timer as he gets exposed defensively with regular play with Aviles playing second while cutting Fields loose as he wouldn't be worth paying close to a $1 million salary in arbitration.

With Jason Kendall out until at least June 1 while recovering from shoulder surgery, there is no sense investing heavily in a veteran catcher as internal options Brayan Pena and Lucas May can hold the fort until Wil Myers becomes the starter as early as 2012.

A right-handed bat could be used for balance since Butler, Ka'aihue, and Gordon all swing from the left side. Free agency would be the route to go and the Braves' Matt Diaz or Giants' Cody Ross would be a good one-season fit in right field at a reasonable salary if they are non-tendered this winter.

With closer Joakim Soria leading the way, the bullpen does not need much work and should theoretically get a boost from Gil Meche becoming a full-time, albeit expensive, reliever and tiny left-handed prospect Tim Collins set to debut at the start of next season. Also on the roster are Robinson Tejeda, Blake Wood, Jesse Chavez, Kanekoa Texeira, and left-hander Dusty Hughes. A better-than-average bullpen can be crafted from that pool of pitchers.

Here's one interesting dilemma when putting together the bullpen: Brian Anderson, the former White Sox center fielder, began making the conversion to reliever this season and hit 97 mph in the minor leagues. However, he is eligible for arbitration and has yet to throw a pitch in a major league game. The logical solution would be to non-tender Anderson, offer him a minor league contract heavy with performance bonuses based on games pitched and hope he shows loyalty to an organization that was willing to commit to his conversion rather than sign somewhere else.

In the end, though, it's all about 2012 for the Royals. By then, impact prospects such as Duffy, Myers, left-hander Mike Montgomery, catcher Wil Myers, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas should be ready to assume key roles—and, hopefully, keep Greinke interested in staying to help lead the way back to respectability for a franchise that hasn't been to the postseason since its lone World Series title and appearance in 1985. Thus, this winter's game plan is bide time and let The Process continue.

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

Related Content:  Royals Prospects,  The Process,  Good Process

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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Royals won the AL pennant in 1980 as well.

Oct 14, 2010 05:37 AM
rating: 0

Yo John, Ol Billy hits from the right.

George Brett for President

Oct 14, 2010 06:34 AM
rating: 0

Not knowing that Billy Butler his from the right side is Brutal. Assuming he is a lefty and advocating for them to pick up a rh hitter is embarassing.

Oct 14, 2010 17:08 PM
rating: -2

Capital "B" brutal huh JT? Mr. Perrotto seems to be the workhorse here of late, give him a break.

Oct 16, 2010 07:40 AM
rating: 0

You see no value in keeping Fields? I would think he could help in a couple of positions at least until something better comes along but maybe not. He used to be able to hit at least.

Oct 14, 2010 09:01 AM
rating: 0
Bill N

Goldstein has mentioned that Myers may be moved to right field.

Oct 14, 2010 09:32 AM
rating: 0

Not a bad way to go. I don't even offer Greinke or the ESPN feeding frenzy begins and ends up in a deal happening when one shouldn't. I still cringe in horror about the Saberhagen trade. Only Bret's long term health kept that from being the unmitigated disaster that it was doomed to be.

I really don't want GMDM doing anything involving major leaguers. He will just screw it up. And let's pray that Kendall is out for all of 2011. His ability to bully his way into the line-up is simply unbelievable.

I have no problem in offering DeJesus, but I am not sure how much you would get considering his recent injury history.

Kila, Butler, Aviles, Betamit, Yuniesky (god he is awful), Pena, May, Gordon, DDJ, Maier (yeah, dyson is faster, but that's it), and three goobers and the position players are set. As soon as Moose is ready, cut a goober. No multi-year contracts to out-of-town veterans.

Another year of Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar and I will be suicidal, but what can you do. I like Bannister be has totally botched his chance. Hopefully, GMDM will realize that signing Chen to a two-year deal will place him squarely in the way in 2012. I's rather somewhat overpay him for one year than have return to being Bruce Chen and still under contract for 2012.

I am not opposed to trading Greinke, Butler, or Soria, but each deal must be heavily weighted in our favor. I wouldn't be surprised if several 2011 contending teams didn't push hard for Butler as we near the trading deadline. With 2+ years before he becomes an FA he might be very attractive to a contender.

Oct 14, 2010 10:32 AM
rating: 3

now that was entertaining.

Oct 14, 2010 12:05 PM
rating: 0
BP staff member Tim Kniker
BP staff

About two years ago I was dead set against trading Greinke. Maybe due to 2010, I've soured a little bit on him. I always think the Rays would be the best fit for him. Would love to work out a trade between KC and Tampa Bay

Oct 14, 2010 15:34 PM
John Carter

Zach Greinke must be a legendary local hero now - with the way he battled his phobias and grew into a Cy Young winning pitcher. It would be callous towards your fans to trade him. No, they're are going to have to find another way of building this team into a contender.

Oct 14, 2010 11:20 AM
rating: -1
Bill N

Zach is supposed to be a guy who's more dialed into numbers, right? I'd be interested if that means he'd be open to taking a big picture look at the team and seeing that they may be on to something soon. Who knows, maybe he'll buy into the infamous "Process".

Oct 14, 2010 14:40 PM
rating: 0
BP staff member Tim Kniker
BP staff

Not really. As a pitcher (especially in 2009), he's more of a strategist in terms of pitch sequencing, but not so much as a "numbers" guy. That's Banny.

Oct 14, 2010 15:33 PM

John Lamb was overlooked in the final paragraph.

Oct 14, 2010 14:56 PM
rating: 0

Looking back at this article, I'm amazed at how closely the Royals have hewn to John's plan this offseason. The only major difference is that they traded Greinke for position players + prospects and DeJesus for a young starter.

I sincerely hope they keep Butler, whose bat belongs in the middle of the lineup for the 20xx Royals. In fact, my hope is that Moore's remaining goal before spring training is to sign Billy long term.

Jan 08, 2011 09:01 AM
rating: 0
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