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September 17, 2010

One-Hoppers

Three True Outcomes Leaders

by Jay Jaffe

You know we love the Three True Outcomes and have for over a decade. As Rany Jazayerli put it, "[T]he Three True Outcomes distill the game to its essence, the battle of pitcher against hitter, free from the distractions of the defense, the distortion of foot speed or the corruption of managerial tactics like the bunt and his wicked brother, the hit-and-run." But for all of our love, we've often failed to maintain a dedicated leaderboard in our stats reports. So today in honor of Marc Normandin's article on Adam Dunn and my own reference to the mystical TTO leaderboard in today's AL Hit List, I present to you the 2010 leaders (200 plate appearance minimum):

Rk

Player 

Tm

PA 

HR 

BB 

SO 

TTO%

1

Mark Reynolds

ARI

563

32

76

197

54.2%

2

Jim Thome

MIN

319

23

57

81

50.5%

3

Jack Cust

OAK

357

11

61

106

49.9%

4

Adam Dunn

WAS

590

35

70

175

47.5%

5

Russell Branyan

2TM

428

25

46

131

47.2%

6

Carlos Pena

TBA

529

27

79

143

47.1%

7

Mike Stanton

FLO

329

20

28

104

46.2%

8

Pedro Alvarez

PIT

322

11

34

103

46.0%

9

Shelley Duncan

CLE

220

10

21

70

45.9%

10

Chris Snyder

2TM

345

14

50

93

45.5%

11

Colby Rasmus

SLN

469

22

53

134

44.6%

12

David Ortiz

BOS

549

30

74

136

43.7%

13

Will Venable

SDN

396

12

43

118

43.7%

14

Rick Ankiel

2TM

207

5

20

65

43.5%

15

Pat Burrell

2TM

381

17

52

93

42.5%

16

Geovany Soto

CHN

378

17

61

79

41.5%

17

Andruw Jones

CHA

312

19

40

70

41.3%

18

Bill Hall

BOS

339

17

28

94

41.0%

19

Justin Upton

ARI

571

17

64

152

40.8%

20

Drew Stubbs

CIN

529

18

45

152

40.6%

21

B.J. Upton

TBA

548

17

61

144

40.5%

22

Jason Giambi

COL

208

6

34

44

40.4%

23

Matthew Joyce

TBA

213

8

34

44

40.4%

24

Jose Bautista

TOR

616

47

93

106

39.9%

25

Milton Bradley

SEA

278

8

28

75

39.9%

26

Marcus Thames

NYA

212

11

19

54

39.6%

27

Prince Fielder

MIL

639

30

96

127

39.6%

28

Jayson Werth

PHI

601

21

74

142

39.4%

29

Michael Saunders

SEA

279

8

30

72

39.4%

30

Dan Uggla

FLO

604

30

71

137

39.4%

31

Mike Napoli

LAA

463

25

35

122

39.3%

32

Adam LaRoche

ARI

560

23

45

152

39.3%

33

David Wright

NYN

610

23

66

149

39.0%

34

Wilson Betemit

KCA

263

12

32

58

38.8%

35

Ian Stewart

COL

423

18

42

104

38.8%

36

Rickie Weeks

MIL

678

27

65

170

38.6%

37

Ike Davis

NYN

539

18

64

126

38.6%

38

Ryan Howard

PHI

560

29

47

140

38.6%

39

Jason Heyward

ATL

556

17

81

116

38.5%

40

Brad Hawpe

2TM

325

9

40

76

38.5%

As he did in 2009, Reynolds leads the majors by dint of a 200+ strikeout pace, and looks to have the title of TTO champion sewn up. Alas, he's is having a relatively down season by most measures, hitting just .207/.326/.456 due both to contact woes and bad luck on balls in play; his BABIP has dropped from .338 last year to .261 this year due to those pesky fielders and their meddling ways. The next five names on the list below Reynolds are all familiar to TTO connoisseurs, but there's some new blood in the lower reaches of the top 10 via rookies Alvarez and Stanton, and the journeyman Duncan. The likes of Rasmus and Venable are also relatively new to this party. The TTO style lives on! Note also the presence of four Diamondbacks here (including the departed Snyder, now in Pittsburgh); as Joe Posnanski points out, the Snakes are on their way to a record-setting season for whiffing. The Rays, who lead the AL in K's, have five names here themselves, including two-teamers Burrell and Hawpe. 

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jay's other articles. You can contact Jay by clicking here

13 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

dianagram

Nice!

Now who is on the opposite side of the spectrum ... the Anti-TTO, as it were?

Sep 17, 2010 08:41 AM
rating: 1
 
roycewebb

I was wondering exactly the same thing. Maybe Juan Pierre, or one of the young contact-oriented Latin shortstops, Andrus or Escobar or Castro, someone like that?

Sep 17, 2010 09:16 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Oh, and the movie you cleverly wordplay on, Koyaanisqatsi, is a must see.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085809/

Sep 17, 2010 09:25 AM
rating: -1
 
dianagram

sorry .... posted this to the wrong article :-(

Sep 17, 2010 09:25 AM
rating: 1
 
CRP13

I have the soundtrack. Glass was a weirdo. Need to check that out.

Sep 17, 2010 09:55 AM
rating: -1
 
cjslawyer

You may have to start giving the TTO leader the "Mark Reynolds Award."

Sep 17, 2010 09:46 AM
rating: 0
 
Agent007

Somehow I am missing the formula. Where does the percentage come from? How is it determined?

Sep 17, 2010 11:25 AM
rating: 0
 
TraderBob

((HR+BB+SO) / PA) * 100% = TTO %

(... in Agent007's defense the definition does not present the actual formula)

Sep 17, 2010 11:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

Thanks for calling my attention to that. I've updated the glossary entry to include the formula.

Sep 18, 2010 11:46 AM
 
mbrignall

There's one guy who leaves them all in the dust. It might only be 116 PA, but Ryan Langerhans is an unworldly 62%. Since that's only 3% HR, you know when you see Ryan stride to the plate, that there's a 59% chance he walks away in one direction or another.

Sep 17, 2010 11:38 AM
rating: 0
 
NYYanks826

You figure for the anti-TTO award, guys like Ichiro and Jeff Keppinger are also on there.

Sep 17, 2010 17:11 PM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Here are the anti-TTO leaders through 9/16 (apologies if this doesn't format properly):
Name PA HR BB SO TTO
D Eckstein 429 1 23 28 12.1%
A.J. Pierzynski 466 8 14 35 12.2%
Juan Pierre* 666 1 41 44 12.9%
A Callaspo# 566 10 30 37 13.6%
Pedro Feliz 401 5 12 41 14.5%
Placido Polanco 549 6 28 46 14.6%
Jose Lopez 576 7 21 59 15.1%
Cesar Izturis# 464 1 22 48 15.3%
Bengie Molina 384 5 24 32 15.9%
Orlando Cabrera 492 4 26 49 16.1%
Jeff Keppinger 516 5 47 31 16.1%
Mike Aviles 368 4 17 39 16.3%
Miguel Tejada 615 13 28 61 16.6%
Jason Kendall 490 0 37 45 16.7%
Y Betancourt 522 15 17 56 16.9%
Jose Reyes# 543 10 28 56 17.3%
Julio Borbon* 407 3 16 53 17.7%
Ryan Theriot 580 2 35 67 17.9%
Kurt Suzuki 478 12 29 45 18.0%
Wilson Valdez 318 4 14 40 18.2%
Carlos Lee 584 21 32 55 18.5%
Chris Getz* 248 0 19 28 19.0%
Yadier Molina 504 6 42 49 19.2%
M Brantley* 269 3 19 30 19.3%
Alcides Escobar 512 4 32 64 19.5%
Denard Span* 650 3 57 67 19.5%
Omar Infante 438 7 24 55 19.6%
Ichiro Suzuki* 658 6 42 82 19.8%
Brendan Ryan 435 2 30 54 19.8%
Rajai Davis 490 5 21 71 19.8%
Starlin Castro 449 3 24 62 19.8%
Angel Sanchez 237 0 9 38 19.8%
Marco Scutaro 649 11 52 66 19.9%
V Guerrero 583 27 32 57 19.9%
Jack Wilson 211 0 7 35 19.9%
Ryan Sweeney* 331 1 24 41 19.9%
V Martinez# 475 15 33 47 20.0%
Alexei Ramirez 567 17 22 75 20.1%
Jerry Hairston 472 10 31 54 20.1%
Danny Valencia 257 2 17 33 20.2%

Sep 17, 2010 19:44 PM
rating: 2
 
Dr. Dave

I play in an 8-team Diamond Mind league, AL-only, 84-game season. For the 2008 season, I had Jack Cust on my team, and he shattered all previous league TTO records, winning the TTO triple crown with 24 HR (tie), 126 K, and 67 BB+HBP in 314 PA.

Final TTO%: 217/314 = 69.1%

Final slash stats: a very Deeresque .222/.385/.547, for an ISO of .325 ... Oof.

Sep 17, 2010 20:05 PM
rating: 0
 
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