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September 9, 2010

Future Shock Blog

Minor League Update: Games of September 8

by Kevin Goldstein

Dellin Betances, rhp, Yankees (Double-A Trenton): 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

I can't remember a system having so many pitchers taking a big step forward in one season like this year's Yankees crop, and Betances leads the charge. Finally healthy, the six-foot-eight righty as been nothing short of dominant, touching the mid-90s with his fastball and backing it up with a true plus curveball. If he can stay healthy, his ceiling is up there with nearly any pitching prospect around.

Others Of Note:

  • Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 2-for-4, 2 R, 2 BB, CS. Final Triple-A line was .274/.338/.439, which about sums up his season; solid to be sure, but little evidence of future stardom.
  • Tim Beckham, SS, Rays (High-A Charlotte); 2-for-3, 3B, 3 R, RBI, BB, CS. Scored three runs in a game only twice during the regular season (.256/.349/.359); scouts did see some improvements during second half of season.
  • Drake Britton, LHP, Red Sox (Low-A Greenville): 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K. Tommy John survivor has plus-plus velo for southpaw; scouts can't wait for 2011 when the leash is loosened a bit on his pitch counts.
  • Darrell Ceciliani, OF, Mets (Short-season Brooklyn): 2-for-3, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SB. True burner developed some real baseball skills this year; with improved approach, he's legit.
  • Johermyn Chavez, OF, Mariners (High-A High Desert): 2-for-4, 2B, HR (1), 2 R, 4 RBI, K. Hit .335/.410/.629 during the second half with 20 home runs in 275 at-bats; now has to prove he can do it away from High Desert.
  • Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Rangers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): 3-for-4, 2B, HR (1), 3 R, RBI. Has possibly run out of chances in Texas.
  • Corey Dickerson, OF, Rockies (Rookie-level Casper): 3-for-5, 2B, 2 3B, 3 R, RBI. Toolsy eight-round pick has been nothing short of a monster in pro debut; 31-for-58 (.534) during current 14-game hitting streak and .351/.416/.642 overall.
  • Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays (Double-A New Hampshire): 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K. First loss in nearly two months obviously wasn't has fault; should be in Toronto rotation early in 2011.
  • Matt Lollis, RHP, Padres (Low-A Fort Wayne) 6 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K. Massive righty (6-8, somewhere around 280 pounds) is generating a lot of buzz with late-season showing.
  • Trevor May, RHP, Phillies (Low-A Lakewood): 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K. Low-A's most dominant arm during the second-half of the season continues into the playoffs; will get second crack at High-A next spring with lessons learned in command and control.
  • Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Low-A Quad Cities): 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K. Best start of career; I was behind home plate for it (my fourth time seeing him) and subscribers get a full scouting report tomorrow.
  • Derek Norris, C, Nationals (High-A Potomac): 2-for-3, HR (1), 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, K. Could be primed for a big 2011 if the hand is finally healthy.
  • Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins (Short-season Jamestown): 3-for-6, HR (1), 2 R, RBI, K, SB. Regular season home run champ (by seven) keeps it up in playoff opener.
  • Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B, Mets (Low-A Savannah): 2-for-4, 2B, R. 18-year-old Dominican is on the radar as one of the higher ceiling bats in the system; full-season in 2011 will be closely watched.
  • Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 2-for-2, 4 BB. Reached base six times yet didn't score a run; scouts still see a productive big league first baseman.
  • Mike Trout, OF, Angels (High-A Rancho Cucamonga): 3-for-6, HR (1), 2 R, RBI, K. Finished regular season on a 12-for-26 run and takes hot streak into post-season.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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pcanderson

One note on Britton last night: the velo was actually a little lower than I have seen (heard) it in the past -- 90-92. But the breaking ball? Wipeout.

Sep 09, 2010 09:42 AM
rating: -1
 
BillJohnson

I'm really looking forward to the Shelby Miller scouting report, Kevin. Hurry! :-) Anybody else at that game catch your attention? Yeah, I know, you can't judge minor-league systems much by the teams' records, but the fact that every St. Louis farm team except one made the post season (and that one missed a slot by 2 games in the standings) has to make one wonder about what's going on there.

Sep 09, 2010 10:05 AM
rating: -1
 
W. Clark

Drabek might be in line for a spot in the rotation, but I can't help but think his future looks more like a low-impact innings eater versus a dynamic starter based on those K & BB rates. Gotta like the ground ball tendencies and the low hit rate, but how many impact level starters have his kind of numbers at AA?

Sep 09, 2010 10:34 AM
rating: 0
 
jpjazzman

A few different places seem to have done a direct comparison between Drabek and Betances since they went H2H last night. Who has the higher ceiling and who will be more impactful 3 years from now?

Sep 09, 2010 11:00 AM
rating: 3
 
mmm6861
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Kevin, i havent read Law's article yet but from responses in his chat he doesnt seem to have been quite as impressed by Betances? Whats you opinion? Who do you like better Betances or Drabek?

I think there's some overhyping going on, especially after what I saw from Betances last night, but they are still legit prospects and that's the most pitching depth there's been in the Yanks' system in a very long time. Damon Oppenheimer is getting some interest for GM gigs for good reason.

Betances & Drabek writeup is here for Insiders: http://klaw.me/bl7a9n Betances showed arm strength but had below-average command and no feel for a breaking ball.

Did you even watch last night's Trenton game? It's obvious you just don't like Yankees prospects based on that writeup because Dellin outperformed Drabek at every level of the minors and outperformed him last night

Klaw (1:27 PM)


Yes, I was there. Apparently you weren't, since you're just going off stat lines.

Sep 09, 2010 12:00 PM
rating: -11
 
lemppi

Without giving away too much on your Shelby Miller report for tomorrow, can you compare his progress this year to Jacob Turner's?

Sep 09, 2010 12:31 PM
rating: 0
 
rdierkers

klaw going with a below average curveball for Betances, interesting to get a third opinion on it.

Sep 09, 2010 14:49 PM
rating: 0
 
Brian Kopec

I assume Kevin's opinion on Betances' stuff is an aggregate scouting opinion, based on reports from at least a few different sources. I'm not sure if Keith Law goes mostly by what only he sees. Assuming he does, then I'd probably trust Kevin here.

Sep 09, 2010 18:18 PM
rating: -3
 
bheikoop

I'd really like to hear what kind of juice Norris was putting on the ball this year. MinorLeagueSplits(DOT COM!) has his LD rate under 10% with essentially all of that deviation from previous seasons switching to FBs. What, if anything do we take from this?

Let's play the "what if" game, and ask "what if" Derek Norris hadn't any issues with his hand (or concussion), what type of line could he have put up? Is an OPS approaching 1.000 likely?

Also, what are the Nat's going to do with him? If his line drive rate was a matter of being overmatched (tough to imagine with his walk rate), do they keep him down again?

Further, with Ramos, what does this do to Norris' prospect stock?

Sep 09, 2010 17:55 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13
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"Let's play the "what if" game, and ask "what if" Derek Norris hadn't any issues with his hand (or concussion), what type of line could he have put up? Is an OPS approaching 1.000 likely?"

What's the point?

Sep 09, 2010 17:59 PM
rating: -4
 
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