CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Under The Knife: Progr... (09/03)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (09/03)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (09/03)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Checking the Numbers: ... (09/03)

September 3, 2010

Fantasy Beat

Luebke Debuts Tonight

by Marc Normandin

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

The Padres have had mostly good health this season in the rotation, only losing out on Chris Young for an extended period of time. With many young starters on the roster though, they do want to give the group some extra rest when possible. Because of this, Cory Luebke will make his major league debut tonight after being part of the group called up when rosters expanded earlier this week. Luebke was somewhat unheralded coming into the season, as he ranked as the #12 prospect in the organization heading into the year and profiled as a back-end starter. He's succeeded at the higher levels of the minors though, and may have pitched his way into a 2011 job because of it--tonight is something of a test and a reward for a season well done.

The Padres first pick in the 2007 draft (a supplemental pick, #63 overall) started the year at Double-A, where he finished the 2009 campaign. He whiffed 7.0 per nine innings pitched once again, but his walk rate was markedly better, dropping from an uncharacteristically high 3.3 down to 1.9, which is more in his range. Following a promotion to Triple-A Portland, the left kept his punch outs up near his Double-A rates, and his walk rate climbed but only to 2.7 per nine, still well below the league average.

Luebke does not have dominating stuff--he as above-average velocity for a southpaw and two solid secondary offerings in his slider (his strikeout pitch) and his changeup, but what he lacks in dominance he makes up for in pinpoint control and excellent command. Luebke puts the ball where he wants to, with any of his pitches, during any count, and it helps him put up better numbers than you would think given the quality of his stuff. He has also been good about keeping the ball in the park throughout his minor league career, and though he gave up 0.9 homers per nine at Portland, it was (1) in a 57 2/3 inning sample and (2) he'll be pitching in Petco if he sticks. He is a flyball pitcher, even if he doesn't give up many homers (he has a 0.9 G/F ratio across both levels this year) so that figure might stick, but it's still right around the major league average.

Excuse the small samples here, but Luebke was superb against left-handers at Portland: an ERA of 1.80, 18 strikeouts and just three walks in 20 innings, and a 1.6 G/F ratio. Right-handers were more difficult to handle (3.58, 26 K in 37 2/3 IP, 14 BB and a 0.7 G/F). Those numbers are still solid, but he's potentially dominant against same-handed batters in the majors.

Prior to the season, PECOTA thought Luebke would put up a 4.55 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He should walk fewer batters than that even out of the gate, and the fact that his strikeout rates have survived his promotions through the high minors is a good sign as well. He may not have much of a 2010 impact, as he's a spot starter from here on out if he picks up work past tonight, but he may be worth keeping an eye on in 2011 due to his ability to control the strike zone as well as his home park and the defense behind him.

Related Content:  Cory Luebke

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Under The Knife: Progr... (09/03)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (09/03)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (09/03)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Checking the Numbers: ... (09/03)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of July 25-27
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 28
Fantasy Article The Buyer's Guide: Francisco Liriano
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Bochy and Peavy, Back ...
This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip...
Premium Article The HOF Rule Change
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: July 28, 2014

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 3, 2010
Prospectus Perspective: Waiving Good-Bye?
Premium Article Future Shock: Random Thoughts For A Friday
Premium Article Checking the Numbers: Who is the Best Switch...
Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: AL: A Slight Opening
Premium Article Under The Knife: Progress at a Snail's Pace
Premium Article On the Beat: No Worse for the Wear
Prospectus Q&A: Anthony Ranaudo

MORE BY MARC NORMANDIN
2010-09-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: The Recent Happenings of J.A. ...
2010-09-09 - Premium Article Prospectus Perspective: Race to the Top
2010-09-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Question Marks in the Padres R...
2010-09-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Luebke Debuts Tonight
2010-09-02 - Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: NL: Fading In The Stret...
2010-09-01 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Second Half Slumps
2010-09-01 - Player Profile: Jose Bautista
More...

MORE FANTASY BEAT
2010-09-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Catcher, Second Bas...
2010-09-06 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: First Base, Third B...
2010-09-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
2010-09-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Luebke Debuts Tonight
2010-09-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #23
2010-09-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief Pitchers
2010-09-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Reimold's Shot At Redemption
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2010-09-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #24
2010-09-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Question Marks in the Padres R...