Welcome to a new feature here at Baseball Prospectus. In each
edition of “Prospect Focus”, we’ll take a look at two prospects around baseball
– some of whom are well known, while others are more obscure. Each
prospect is listed with their up-to-date stats, along with a Davenport
Translation which provides a unique in-season translation of that player’s
performance this season. These DT’s estimate league and park effects from
previous seasons, so while they aren’t perfect, we feel they are an extremely
useful tool to aid in analyzing each player’s progress.
In our first issue, we start with the AL West and take a look at a
pair of hitters: Troy Glaus, whose stunning debut merits a look; and
Warren Morris, who is trying to turn his college fame into pro success.
The first line is the player’s real stats, and the second line is his
Davenport Translation. All stats are through May 12th.
Troy Glaus, Anaheim Angels 3B Age 21
Year Team Lvl AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG EQA 1998 Midland AA 149 49 9 1 17 26 40 44 4 2 .329 .433 .745 1998 Midland AA 143 41 4 0 12 20 25 34 3 1 .287 .374 .566 .312
Few players have turned as many heads with their professional debut as Glaus
has. Quite simply, AA has proved no match with him; he hit eight home runs in
his first nine games, and continues his aerial assault on Texas League pitchers
nightly. He is excelling at every aspect of his game; he hits for average, has
excellent patience, and by most accounts, picks it pretty well at the hot
corner.
His DT underscores just how tremendous his debut has been. When a 21-year-old
third baseman hits with this kind of power, it’s almost impossible not to
compare him to Mike Schmidt. Comparisons to the
greatest third baseman of all time are obviously overstated this early on, but
keep in mind Schmidt didn’t reach the major leagues until he was almost 23. A
better comparison may be to Matt Williams, but Glaus should hit for a higher
average and get on base more. No matter how you slice it, he’s a stud. Between
Glaus, Eric Chavez, Aramis Ramirez, and überprospect Adrian
Beltre, the minors are going to crank out several great third basemen in the
near future.
Glaus is ready for the major leagues right now, but his ETA hangs on when the
Angels make a spot for him. The talk in southern California is always about
moving Jim Edmonds, which is insane; the Angels have the most overrated
leftfielder in baseball in Garret Anderson, and Darin Erstad’s speed and
defense are completely wasted at first base. If the Angels ship Anderson’s
butt to any team dumb enough to take him (Danger, Herk Robinson, danger!), they
can move Erstad to left field, Hollins to first base, and bring up Troy Glaus,
improving their defense at 2 positions and getting a huge lift to their offense
at the same time.
Warren Morris, Texas Rangers 2B Age 24
Year Team Lvl AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG EQA 1997 Charlotte A 494 151 27 9 12 62 78 75 16 5 .306 .390 .470 1997 Charlotte A 502 134 16 4 11 50 69 61 7 3 .267 .333 .380 .251 1998 Tulsa AA 158 50 8 1 6 20 31 21 7 0 .316 .397 .494 1998 Tulsa AA 155 40 3 0 5 14 20 19 4 0 .258 .320 .374 .247
Morris, as many of you know, is the only player in history to hit a two-out,
bottom-of-the-ninth, game-winning home run in the deciding game of a World
Series. Okay, it was the College World Series, but why quibble? Morris then
returned for his senior year of college before turning pro, so he is a little
old for a prospect in just his second professional season. So far his 1998
campaign is almost identical to last year, despite making the jump to AA. This
is usually a very good sign, but keep in mind that Charlotte is in the Florida
State League, notoriously tough on hitters, while Tulsa is in the
hitter-friendly Texas League.
Morris currently projects as a league-average second baseman, but he has a
diverse range of skills which bodes well for his future performance. Most
middle infield prospects can hit for average and steal bases; the ones who can
hit for power and draw walks as well have additional talents that they may
develop in time. Morris isn’t a top prospect, but he should develop into an
above-average second baseman in the Mike Lansing mold. When that will happens
depends on when Mark McLemore decides to end his Brett Butler impersonation.
Thank you for reading
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