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August 27, 2001

The Daily Prospectus

Pujols vs. Dunn

by Joe Sheehan

I got a great question from reader Keith Blue over the weekend:

Albert Pujols is the obvious frontrunner for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. But who would you rather have in the long run: Pujols or Adam Dunn?

I'll admit, this stood out because it was a rare missive that didn't include the word "Bonds," but it really is a good question. Let's start by taking a look at their 2001 performances:


               AVG   OBP   SLG   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB CS  EqA
Pujols        .331  .401  .614  471 156  37   3  30  52  73   1  3 .328

Dunn (Majors) .277  .389  .599  137  38   9   1  11  24  41   2  0 .319
Dunn (Minors) .334  .469  .671  350 117  22   0  32  62  82  11  4 .292

Both players are having excellent seasons. At the beginning of the year, Dunn looked like the more advanced prospect, but a big spring training and an injury to Bobby Bonilla helped Pujols make the Cardinals, and he made the most of that opportunity. Dunn absolutely obliterated Double-A and Triple-A, finally reaching the Reds outfield in late July. He's been arguably their best player since his callup.

Both players are 21, with Pujols about two months younger than Dunn. He's advertised as a third baseman, but has been error-prone in his time there and played more at other positions than at the hot corner. His work in the outfield has been fairly good, actually, and--subjective evaluation ahead--I like what I've seen of his arm. Dunn is a corner outfielder by trade, and by most accounts a good one. Here are the fielding statistics for the two players (major league only):


                         Inn.     RF    ZR    Pct.    A    E   DP
Pujols at third base:   415.2   3.20  .753   .937   108   10   17
Pujols in right field:  294.2   1.74  .900   .934     3    4    0

Dunn in right field:    240.0   2.78  .867   .974     2    2    1

Pujols's primary advantage over Dunn is his ability to play third base. If he settles in there, any offensive difference between the two players will probably be overshadowed by Pujols's positional value. Dunn's main point over Pujols is his speed; while not fast, he's faster than Pujols, and that speed shows up on the basepaths and in the field. Dunn isn't going to be just a masher in the outfield; he will be a good, and potentially very good, right fielder.

Going forward, I think Dunn has one more advantage over Pujols, at least over the next calendar year. I don't think you can expect Pujols to perpetually hit .330 with walks and power. If, for example, he starts off next season in a minor slump (say, .260 with walks and a drop in power), the perception that he's having a significant falloff may lead to his being mishandled, and that's the kind of thing that can really screw up a player's career. I don't think he's being helped by playing four positions (left field and first base, in addition to the two above), either, especially since he's essentially learning all but third base on the job. Dunn is playing well, but with only ten weeks of major-league play under his belt, he won't have his 2002 performance measured against the monster 2001 stats that Pujols will, and he's pretty much the everyday right fielder at this point.

It all sounds like picking nits, but in choosing between two players of such accomplishment and ability, this is the depth to which you have to go to separate them. This is really an area where I'd want to have more evidence--scouting evaluations, extensive videotape, information from team doctors on the two players' body types and projected physical development--to make my decision.

I believe that if I was running a major-league team, I would rather have Pujols, because of the demonstrated upside and the defensive value. As an outsider, say as someone running a fantasy or Strat-O-Matic team, I would rather have Dunn, because I feel there's less chance of him being affected adversely by organizational decisions.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here

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