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August 9, 2010

Fantasy Beat

The Dominance of Brandon Morrow

by Craig Brown

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The top starting pitching performance of 2010 was turned in Sunday by Toronto’s Brandon Morrow, who came this close to throwing the sixth no-hitter of the season.  While that may sound strange, given this is the “Year of the Pitcher” and we have seen two perfect games, a near perfecto and three more no-hitters, but Morrow’s 17 strikeout, one hit shutout of the Rays earned the distinction of scoring a 100 on the Bill James Game Score meter.  Missing the no-hitter was disappointing, but the strikeout total was quite an accomplishment. (Even though the Rays are the American League's easiest team to whiff, going down on strikes an average of 7.9 times per game.)

Here are the top starts of 2010, based on Game Score:

8/8/10 - Brandon Morrow - 100
5/29/10 - Roy Halladay - 98
5/28/10 - Matt Cain - 94
5/9/10 - Dallas Braden - 93
5/11/10 - Johnny Cueto - 93
7/10/10 - Travis Wood - 93

To put Morrow’s dominance in deeper perspective, only five times since 1991 has a starter hit the 100 mark on the Game Score.  Until Sunday, it hadn’t been done since Randy Johnson’s perfect game in 2004.

Certainly, the topic of pitch counts will be front and center when discussing this start.  Morrow threw a career high 137 pitches, shattering his previous high by 21 pitches.  According to the data collected by Brooks Baseball, while his velocity seemed to drop as the game progressed, he was still able to dial his fastball a notch or two higher when necessary.


 

Sunday's game was the exclamation point on what has become a spectacular season for the young Blue Jay starter.  A season that seemed highly unlikely as recently as the end of May.

Morrow has been pacing the AL in strikeouts per nine innings for most of the season, but early in this year, walks were killing Morrow.  Absolutely killing him.  In his first 10 starts of 2010, he walked four or more batters on five occasions.  In those starts, he threw 50 innings and walked a total of 32 batters, which works out to a disgustingly high walk rate of 5.8 BB/9.  Walks have a tendency to be destructive, and this was especially the case for Morrow.  Of the 32 free passes he issued, 15 of them came around to score.  While Morrow owned a fantastic 11.7 K/9 rate in these starts, he wasn’t around long enough to realize the benefits - he pitched into the seventh inning just twice in his first ten starts and averaged just 5 IP per start. Such is life when you can't consistently throw strikes.

That seemed to confirm what we knew about the young right hander who was the fifth pick overall in the 2006 draft by the Seattle Mariners:  Electric stuff, plus erratic stuff, equaled untapped potential.  His first 10 starts seemed to indicate he was in for another frustrating season.  Then, he began delivering stronger results and ultimately turned his season around.

Sure, that .390 BABIP in his first 10 starts may point to some bad luck, but you’re not doing yourself any favors by walking almost six batters per nine innings.  

Somehow, Morrow turned his season around.  What’s the difference?  

Would you believe, the answer may lie in Morrow’s catcher?  

Since May 31 (start number 11), Morrow has thrown exclusively to Jose Molina.  (Seven of Morrow’s first 10 starts came with John Buck behind the plate.)  Morrow has spoken about a comfort level he has with Molina behind the plate and how he trusts the catcher to call “a great game.”  In an article on the Blue Jays site from June 25, Morrow talked specifics about how Molina has helped him find a rhythm and game plan while on the mound:

"I think when he calls games throwing a lot of offspeed stuff, it kind of helps to keep me dialed back… I'm using my offspeed pitches in the [strike] zone a lot better and everything has kind of come off of that."

A quick check of the Pitch f/x archives shows this to be the case.  With Molina behind the dish, Morrow became less dependent on his fastball and began mixing more curves, change-ups and split finger pitches.

We saw the results from this change in approach in the earlier table.  Still, it’s useful to see what’s happening in plate appearances.  Here are the top five plate appearance outcomes for Morrow in his first 10 starts of the season:

Strikeout - 27.6%
Single - 14.2%
Walk - 13.8%
Flyout - 11.2%
Groundout - 11.2%

A base runner was the second and third most common resolution for Morrow.  Not surprising given what we know about his early starts.  Now, here are the top five plate appearance outcomes for Morrow in starts since May 31, when Molina took over as his full-time catcher.  Be prepared for some improvement:

Strikeout - 27.3%
Groundout - 15.6%
Flyout - 13.3%
Single - 12.7%
Walk - 7.9%

The proof is in the outcomes.  Morrow's 1.7 WHIP through his first 10 starts, dropped to a 1.15 WHIP over his next 12.  That's quite a turnaround.

While the Morrow-Molina tandem has been keeping hitters off balance with an array of off speed pitches, they turned their successful formula on its head for Sunday’s start against the Rays.  Morrow threw just two curveballs all afternoon and didn’t throw his change-up once.  It was the slider the wreaked the most havoc, resulting in a swing and a miss nearly 37% of the time.  Of his 17 strikeouts, 10 of them came from Rays hitters flailing at sliders - 4 of them were in the dirt and blocked by Molina.  Here are his pitch locations from Sunday from Texas Leaguers.



While Morrow may never match the dominance he exhibited on Sunday in Toronto, this start wasn’t a fluke.  He has the ability to strike out at least 10 hitters every time he takes the hill.  He's dropped his overall ERA to 4.45 to go along with a 1.36 WHIP.  His 3.22 SIERA ranks him 10th among starters and illustrates just how dominant he has been in 2010.  We may scoff at the idea of a personal catcher, but in Morrow's case, it's difficult to argue against the results.  Entering the weekend, Morrow was owned in less than 30% of all ESPN leagues, despite his obvious improvement since the beginning of June.  As bullish as I am on Morrow, his elevated pitch count on Sunday means his next several starts will need to be closely monitored.  

Still, that untapped potential? Consider it tapped.
 

Craig Brown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here

Related Content:  Brandon Morrow

16 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

garethbluejays2

Injuries may always scupper plans, but Toronto's starting 5 for 2011 looks quite solid although whether they have a number 1 starter rather than 5 number 2/3s is an open question.

Aug 09, 2010 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
jpinato

No Data Found in the last chart

Aug 09, 2010 10:31 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Brown
BP staff

I had some issues with the last chart, but thought it was working... I'm seeing it now, though. Anyone else?

Aug 09, 2010 10:49 AM
 
Patrickj

It still says 'no data found'...

Great observation on the change in pitch types, Craig; Morrow's curve yesterday was simply filthy. The movement on it was reminiscent of the hard curve K-Rod was throwing in his final seasons in Anaheim. It comes in at 85mph and has a big last-second break on it. He got most of his strikeouts off it.

Molina did a terrific job calling the game; as Morrow hit his rhythm, Molina would make some really bold pitch calls to cross up the hitters. More than once, they'd get an 0-2 or 1-2 count and the hitter would expect the curve in the dirt. Instead, Molina called fastball on the outside corner and the surprised batter was way behind if he swang.

Looking at the pitch speed charts, it looks as if it was basically fastball-curve all night. There are a couple 90mph pitches - presumably sliders - and the 80mph change makes only a couple appearances. I wouldn't be surprised if he sticks to that combo the rest of the year.

Any mechanics guys around want to comment on whether his curve delivery is at all problematic? I remember a lot of concern over K-rod's action on the above-mentioned pitch.

Aug 09, 2010 11:09 AM
rating: 0
 
Patrickj

oops, now the table's fixed.

Aug 09, 2010 11:10 AM
rating: 0
 
tonyfranco

Morrow may have started to realize his true potential, but we need to see him pitch well against teams other than Tampa Bay.

vs. TB
3GS, 2-1, 22IP, 0HR, 1.23ERA, 0.773 WHIP

vs. rest of baseball
19GS, 7-5, 105IP, 10HR, 5.14ERA, 1.494 WHIP

Aug 09, 2010 11:13 AM
rating: 1
 
theguarantee

On my bench.

Aug 09, 2010 12:55 PM
rating: 1
 
Marc Normandin

Based on my Twitter feed yesterday, you are far from the only one. If it makes you feel any better I missed Adam Wainwright's CG, two-hit shutout this weekend in head-to-head because I didn't get to a computer in time to set my lineup.

Aug 09, 2010 13:09 PM
rating: 0
 
Vince Galloro

I sat Dallas Braden for his perfect game, because I thought that my leads in some rate stats would hold. They didn't....

Aug 10, 2010 07:43 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Brown
BP staff

*Cough* Weekly Planner

Aug 09, 2010 13:19 PM
 
Michael Bodell
(89)

Yeah, he was on my bench in a daily transaction h2h league because I forgot to log in Saturday. I missed his start and Vargas's start and lost K, WHIP, and ERA as a result. Oops!

Aug 09, 2010 16:32 PM
rating: 0
 
BobbyRoberto
(907)

I've been starting Morrow at home and avoiding him on the road:

7-1, 2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 at home
2-5, 6.44 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 on the road

Aug 09, 2010 17:22 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Craig Brown
BP staff

You've missed some good starts. He got roughed up a few times in April and May on the road which didn't help. Although his two worst starts of his last 12 both were against the Yankees... At Yankee Stadium.

The Jays have one more trip to the Bronx... The weekend before Labor Day. I'll keep my fingers crossed Morrow doesn't pitch in that series.

Aug 09, 2010 20:09 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Great article. Not sure if I missed this kind of breakdown in previous ones or not, but I'd love to see more of this type that combines scouting, pitch f/x, performance statistics, etc.

Aug 09, 2010 19:42 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Craig Brown
BP staff

Thanks... Trying to do more in this vein.

Aug 09, 2010 20:09 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Please do :)

Aug 10, 2010 22:39 PM
rating: 0
 
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