CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Contractual Matters: A... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Min... (07/02)
Next Column >>
Future Shock Blog: Min... (07/07)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Q&A: Manny ... (07/06)

July 6, 2010

Future Shock Blog

Minor League Update: Games of July 5

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley): 2-for-4, HR (4), 2 R, RBI, BB, K, SB

Put him on the short list of prospects that with nearly any other team would be in the big leagues.  He's blocked for now, but continuing to put the pressure on with a .405/.435/.762 line in his first 12 International League games.  The Phillies could be a better team next year with Brown in right and the team properly spending the money saved by not bringing back Jason Werth.

Chris Davis, 3B/1B, Rangers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): 3-for-4, 2B, R, RBI, BB

With ten hits in his last four games, Davis is now batting .349/.397/.542 for the RedHawks, but it's hard to figure out his trade value.  Yes, he's been nothing short of fantastic in the minors, and at 24, he's not exactly old, but teams will still see a player who struck his way out of the big leagues not once, but twice, and sometimes having never been given the opportunity to fail can be better for one's perceived value than a track record like that.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (Double-A Northwest Arkansas): 4-for-4, 2 HR (21), 3 R, 5 RBI, BB

After a brief slump at the end of June, Moustakas has gone all crazy again, going 12-for-20 in his last five games with three doubles and three jacks to get his line back up in the stratosphere at .358/.420/.711.  Leads the Texas League in all three Triple Crown categories, as well as on-base percentage, slugging, total bases and runs.

Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (Rookie-level GCL Twins): 2-for-5, 2B R, RBI, 2 K

Sano was the talk of last year's international signing class, finally signing with the Twins for over $3 million, and he was the talk of the Dominican Summer League as well, batting .344/.463/.547 in 20 games while showing power, an excellent approach, and a rapidly growing frame that has already moved him off of shortstop.  He made some noise in his state side debut as well, and could be making his case for being among the top prospects in the game if he keeps it up, as while the 17-year-old still has eons to go developmental-wise, the upside is as good as anyone around.

Others of Note:

  • Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds (Triple-A Louisville): 2-for-4, 2B, HR (5), R, 2 RBI; 1-for-2, RBI, BB.  15-for-39 (.385) in last nine games; but still just at .253/.291/.387 in 53 Triple-A games.
  • Alexi Amarista, 2B, Angels (Double-A Arkansas): 2-for-4, R, 2 RBI.  Tiny second baseman can really hit; 6-for-15 since move to Double-A.
  • J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays (Triple-A Las Vegas): 2-for-4, 2 R, RBI, BB, K.  Does this quality as an off day for him?
  • Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants (Double-A Richmond): 1-for-3, HR (2), R, RBI, BB, K.  11 total bases in 11 Double-A at-bats as the hits just keep on comin'.
  • Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers (Double-A Frisco): 2-for-4, 3B, R, 2 RBI. Potential explosion alert; 8-for-14 with 13 total bases and just one strike out since arriving in Texas League.
  • Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake): 2-for-5, 3B, R, 2 RBI, K.  That's ten triples as hot streak continues; 11-for-18 in last four games with three triples, two home runs.
  • Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (Double-A Akron): 3-for-4, 2B, HR (8), 2 R, 3 RBI.  .278/.343/.429 overall, but the power is coming on strong, including a .508 slugging since June 1.
  • Drew Cumberland, SS, Padres (Double-A San Antonio): 2-for-5, 3 RBI, K.  Hitting .325/.349/.350 since promotion; scouts thing average is real, but secondary skills mave have been left in the Cal League.
  • Eduardo Escobar, SS, White Sox (High-A Winston Salem): 2-for-4, CS.  Slugging .444 since June 1 and one of the better defensive shortstops in the Carolina League with a true plus-plus arm.
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett): 2-for-4, K.  Hitting .330 and slugging .560 in last 30 games; Troy Glaus could be just a one-year stop gap after all.
  • Scooter Gennett, 2B, Brewers (Low-A Wisconsin): 2-for-4, 2B, K.  Still not sure what to make of a 5-9, 155 pound kid, but he sure can hit; 18-for-47 (.383) in last ten games and .337/.392/.498 overall.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham): 6 IP, 5 H 0 R, 4 BB, 3 K.  A bit sloppier than most outings, but no runs is no runs.
  • Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins (Low-A Beloit): 1-for-3, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K, 3 SB.  Putting on a show of late amidst swirling trade rumors; up to .260/.372/.407.
  • Cedric Hunter, OF, Padres (Triple-A Portland): 3-for-5, RBI.  Batting .343/.385/.457 since move to Triple-A; scouts see a big leaguer, but more of a fourth outfielder/second-division starter at best.
  • Tommy Joseph, C, Giants (Low-A Augusta): 2-for-5, 2B, HR (9), R, RBI, 2 K.  Home runs in back-to-back games; despite .229/.293/.374 line, scouts have good things to say about '09 second rounder's offensive upside.
  • Marc Krauss, OF, Diamondbacks (High-A Visalia): 3-for-4, 2 2B, R, 3 RBI, K.  Arguably the hottest hitter in the minors with 36 hits in last 15 games, including seven doubles and seven home runs; up to .333/.394/.551 and should be in Double-A soon.  Those that like him compare him to Adam Dunn (both positively and negatively).
  • Leon Landry, OF, Dodgers (Short-season Ogden): 3-for-6, HR (1), 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, K.  Third-round pick last month is compact, athletic speedster who, as he showed last night, can surprise with occasional power.
  • Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers (High-A Inland Empire): 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K.  Has allowed two or fewer earned runs in half of his starts, yet has 4.56 ERA; that's inconsistency.
  • Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox (High-A Salem): 3-for-5, HR (5), 3 R, 5 RBI, K.  Real progress this year with .287/.347/.441 line; like his numbers, scouts like him, but don't love him.
  • Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins (Triple-A New Orleans): 2-for-4, HR (5), R, 3 RBI.  Kind of stuck for now; everyone (including the Marlins) know he's better than Gaby Sanchez long-term.
  • Trent Mummey, OF, Orioles (Short-season Aberdeen): 2-for-5, 2B, R, K.  Fourth-round pick with both power and speed element to game is 8-for-14 in last three contests.
  • Jordan Pacheco, C, Rockies (High-A Modesto): 2-for-3, 2B, 2 R RBI.  Nice catching prospect that gets little attention; batting .326/.404/.443 with more walks than strikeouts.
  • Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Short-season Spokane): 3-for-4, 2B, R, BB, SB.  Just 17 and holding his own in college-dominated league; gap power has been a pleasant surprise.
  • Dennis Raben,1B/OF, Mariners (High-A High Desert): 3-for-5, 2 HR (9), 2 R, 4 RBI.  Hitting a whopping .450/.522/.933 in High Desert with all nine of his home runs at home and zero homers in 54 road at-bats.
  • Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels (Double-A Arkanas): 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K.  First start since demotion after control problems derailed him at Triple-A; still just 21 with excellent secondary stuff.
  • Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B, Mets (Rookie-level Kingsport): 3-for-5, HR (5), 2 R, 2 RBI.  18-year-old Dominican has five home runs in 53 at-bats and very real raw power.
  • Blake Smith, OF, Dodgers (Low-A Great Lakes): 3-for-3, HR (9), 2 R, 3 RBI; 2-for-3, HR (10), R, 2 RBI.  '09 second-rounder is doing best Jerry Sands impression since the latter's promotion; home runs in four of last five games and overall line of .298/.372/.530, but like Sands, he's very advanced for the level.
  • Chris Tillman, RHP, Orioles (Triple-A Norfolk): 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K.  Just 99 pitches; working on both a cutter and a two-seam fastball to keep his pitches lower in the strike zone.
  • Mike Trout, OF, Angels (Low-A Cedar Rapids): 2-for-4, 2B, 3 R, RBI, BB, K, SB.  The .364/.447/.553 line doesn't look like anything new, but how many realize that he's second in the minor leagues with 41 stolen bases?
  • Nick Weglarz, OF, Indians (Triple-A Columbus): 3-for-4, HR (2), R, RBI, K, CS.  Just two home runs in 115 Triple-A bats for bat-only prospect.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Triple-A

20 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

jamin67038

I think Jurickson Profar would have been T.S. Eliot's favorite player.

Jul 06, 2010 10:37 AM
rating: 4
 
Swingingbunts

Hi Kevin,
I realize the Royals said that Moustakas won't be called up to the Majors this season, but at what point is he wasting time? Shouldn't he at least go to Triple A?
Joe

Jul 06, 2010 10:38 AM
rating: 0
 
Gregjitsu

Not to nitpick, but...wasn't last night's homer Brandon Belt's second in the Eastern League?

Also, are scouts still projecting Tommy Joseph as a first baseman, rather than a Catcher?

Jul 06, 2010 11:04 AM
rating: 0
 
rweiler

According to minor league baseball official stats, it was his second HR in the Eastern League; he went 4 for 5 with an HR the day before.

Jul 06, 2010 12:25 PM
rating: 0
 
Shankweather

Kevin I don't think you understand what it does to me when you post one of these without a Cub.

Jul 06, 2010 11:12 AM
rating: 1
 
lukejazz

Not an exciting weekend overall for Cubbies prospects, but I'll give my nod to Trey McNutt. His second start at Daytona was terrific: 5.2 IP, 4H, 1R, 1BB, 6K. Michael Brenley, Bob's kid, also deserves mention: an OPS of nearly 1100 since the beginning of June.

Jul 06, 2010 12:38 PM
rating: 0
 
buffum
(458)

The concept of Nick Weglarz being caught stealing boggles my mind. (Not the "caught" part.)

Jul 06, 2010 11:15 AM
rating: 0
 
gogotabata

Aderlin Rodriguez certainly looks intriguing; just seven strikeouts in 53 at bats, with four walks and seven extra-base hits (including five homers). Just a 245/298/566 line, but minorleaguesplits.com has his BABIP at a paltry .195, so a lot of that looks like bad luck in a small sample size.

He has been getting killed at home, but is hitting like Moustakas' angry older brother on the road. Normalizing his luck (always a dicey proposition, especially at that level and in such a small sample size) calls up a 387/431/753 line. Not saying that that is Rodriguez's true level, but just that if some of them balls he's smacking fell in for hits at a normal rate, we might have a wildfire prospect on our hands.

Does he stick at 3rd?

Jul 06, 2010 11:18 AM
rating: 0
 
BERSMR

Kevin,

Any kind of minor league equivalency of Chris Davis's number would say that he can perform at the major league level. And while Nelson Cruz failed a couple of times at the major league level, eventually his huge minor league numbers translated into major league success. Maybe too big of a question for this format, but you hinted at it on your comment on Davis. How much of a believer are you in the phenomenon of a AAAA hitter, as opposed to the idea that given enough chances the guys putting up big numbers at AAA are likely to eventually put up similar (translated) numbers at the major league level?

Jul 06, 2010 11:37 AM
rating: 0
 
Karl T

You cannot fairly count a two-week appearance as a failed MLB stint. Texas was just too quick to send him down. Smoak has been stinking it up for months and everyone cries, "patience!" Davis had a much more consistent, near 1.000 OPS minor league development than Smoak, who was up and down, and really shined for two weeks this Spring. Davis is just as good a prospect as Smoak, and deserves an extended look. Send him to the White Sox, please, if Texas cannot use him!

Jul 06, 2010 12:38 PM
rating: -3
 
Wade

I agree...and I can think of several teams that would start Davis at either 1B or 3B right now

Jul 06, 2010 13:13 PM
rating: -1
 
Fresh Hops

No, Davis is not as good of a prospect as Smoak. Not even close. No credible authority thinks that. Moreover, 789 PA is an extended look during which time Davis managed 255 strike outs and 49 walks. For comparison's sake, Smoak is on pace for 71 walks and 106 Ks at a 513 PA pace. The ability to crush AAA hitters is an ability that requires pitch recognition to translate into major league success. Nothing about Davis current AAA game suggests he's improving--he still swings at a lot of pitches, doesn't have an impressive preference for pitches in the zone, and his walk rate has gone down from his 2008/2009 rates.

Compare that with Justin Smoak, who swings at 3% fewer out of zone pitches than the major league average, who gets ahead in the count 6% more than the major league average, who has major league average contact skills but above average power with projection for more. Smoak is a disciplined hitter who's rookie line looks a lot like Jim Thome's.

Jul 06, 2010 16:54 PM
rating: 3
 
antonsirius

Everyone is crying "patience" with Smoak because he actually has some at the plate, unlike Davis.

Jul 06, 2010 18:26 PM
rating: 1
 
Karl T

You know what they say about statistics. Since June 6, twice the length of Davis's look this year, Smoak has declined on his slow start. (198/284/323 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, and 12 walks in his last 108 PAs). Things are not looking good. And you can't comp him to Thome's first two years, that is just a logical fallacy: you can comp any struggling big man to Thome's first two years. Most of them don't turn out to be Thome.
Yes, Smoak has better plate discipline, much better, but he also lacks Davis's pop.
Both Smoak and Davis have shown some promise, both have platoon troubles galore, and both have stunk this year at the MLB level. Davis has more experience and should be closer to getting it all figured out, so let him back into MLB.

Jul 06, 2010 21:53 PM
rating: -3
 
Fresh Hops

BABIP.

Jul 06, 2010 22:13 PM
rating: 0
 
cousinpt

Weglarz' HR was actually an inside-the-park jobber in Toledo.
No, seriously...

Jul 06, 2010 11:39 AM
rating: 2
 
buffum
(458)

Polar bear or asteroid?

Jul 06, 2010 14:38 PM
rating: 0
 
Wade

Kevin: Have the M's given up on Adam Moore? He sucked offensively early in the year before he got hurt, but he's got a .417/.444/.567 line at Tacoma now that he's back playing again...and it's not like Rob Johnson or Josh Bard are ever gonna do much more than be lineup fillers, so I'm wondering why the Mariners don't call Moore back up and see if he can produce...or is Moore destined for the same fate as Chris Davis?

Jul 06, 2010 13:19 PM
rating: 0
 
Dave Holgado

I think you've mentioned it before, but how concerned should we be about Moose's extreme home/road splits? Hard to wave away these video game numbers, but is that maybe at least reason to temper enthusiasm?

Jul 07, 2010 05:44 AM
rating: 0
 
mheroman

No Brandon Beachy? 7ip 4h 0r 0w 11k

Jul 07, 2010 09:20 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Contractual Matters: A... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Min... (07/02)
Next Column >>
Future Shock Blog: Min... (07/07)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Q&A: Manny ... (07/06)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: July 1, 2015
Fantasy Rounders: The Slump Buster
Premium Article What Scouts Are Saying: July 1, 2015
Premium Article Going Yard: Futures Game: USA Bats
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, June ...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: July 1, 2015
Premium Article Notes from the Field: July 1, 2015

MORE FROM JULY 6, 2010
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: AL Central Pitching
Premium Article Under The Knife: The All-Star Effect
Prospectus Q&A: Manny Mota
Premium Article Another Look: Mal Fichman

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2010-07-08 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-07 - Premium Article Future Shock: Making a Match for Cliff Lee
2010-07-07 - Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-06 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-05 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
2010-07-02 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-02 - BP Podcast: Episode 7: Speaking Of Length . ...
More...

MORE FUTURE SHOCK BLOG
2010-07-09 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-08 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-07 - Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-06 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-02 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-07-01 - Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2010-06-30 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
More...