CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Premium Article You Could Look It Up: ... (06/28)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Analyze This: Hot Spot... (03/16)
Next Column >>
Analyze This: Checking... (09/19)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (06/28)

June 28, 2010

Analyze This

Run Julio, Run

by Craig Brown

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.

a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Julio Borbon’s statistical low point came on May 6th. Following a game against Kansas City where he went 0-4 in a 13-run Ranger effort, Borbon’s slash line dipped to .184/.202/.230.  He had come to the plate 91 times, collected just two extra base hits (both triples) and had just a single walk against 14 strikeouts.  The following evening, he went 2-3 and effectively took his season off life support.  In the 143 plate appearances since then, he’s hit .364/.397/.477.

The improved batting average is great, but what you really want is for Borbon to use his wheels and rack up the steals for your team.  Unfortunately, while he’s been getting on base more, the steals haven’t followed.  In fact, it’s been an outright disappointing base stealing year for the Ranger outfielder.  Here are his various base running rates from his two years in the majors:

Run% is the number of times a runner attempts a steal divided by his stolen base opportunities.  Borbon hasn’t been running as much as last year, but he’s still near the top of the list when it comes to runners attempting to steal.  His run rate of over 20% ranks him 10th among all would be thieves in the American League.  Just for reference (and fun) here are the top 10 opportunists so far in the AL this year:

Rajai Davis - 34.1%
B.J. Upton - 33%
Scott Podsednik - 31.9%
Juan Pierre - 27.1%
Alex Rios - 26.7%
Chone Figgins - 25.8%
C>arl Crawford - 24.5%
Elvis Andrus - 23.1%
Brett Gardner - 22.5%
Julio Borbon - 20.6%

What separates Borbon from his thieving counterparts is his abysmal 57% stolen base success rate.  The lowest SB% of the nine listed belongs to his Texas teammate, Andrus who is successful 70% of the time.  Davis, Pierre, Figgins, Gardner and Upton all possess a success rate above 80%.  

Borbon’s continuing misadventures on the bases ultimately means he will see more red lights than green.  Over his last 23 games, he’s attempted only four steals and was successful just once.  Plus, he hasn’t attempted a single steal in his last 13 games.  This is despite posting a .423 OBP in this stretch.

Thankfully, Borbon has rediscovered his plate discipline which was MIA during the season’s first two months, which has led to his recent bump in OBP.  He didn’t draw a free pass until his 60th plate appearance of the year and through his first 175 plate appearances, he drew a grand total of two walks.  Two walks. Borbon has always been a free swinger, but that’s crazy.  He’s finally exhibiting some needed patience, drawing seven base on balls in his last 59 plate appearances.  

While he may not be stealing as much, he still reaps the benefits of reaching base as he is coming around to score at a decent clip.  After he reaches, he’s crossing the plate 40% of the time.  

All well and good, but the batting average and runs are a consolation prize, as Borbon needs to be stealing for him to help your team.  He’s running less than expected and the overall lack of success is troubling, and will likely limit his attempts for the short-term.  Until he finds his stealing groove and wins free rein on the bases, there’s too much sizzle and not enough substance.

Craig Brown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article You Could Look It Up: ... (06/28)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Analyze This: Hot Spot... (03/16)
Next Column >>
Analyze This: Checking... (09/19)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (06/28)

What You Need to Know: Engel in the Outfield
Short Relief: Underappreciated Player Week: ...
Premium Article Weekly Wrap: August 18, 2017
Banjo Hitter: The First 162: Alex Bregman
Premium Article Guarding The Lines: Here The Fastball Are No...
Cold Takes: Doomed and Determined
Circle Change: The Best Failure in Baseball

Top 10 Week: General Manager Candidates
Premium Article Under The Knife: The Red Sox Report
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
Premium Article Contractual Matters: International Timeline
Premium Article You Could Look It Up: The Dusty Discontents ...
Premium Article Campus Notes: CWS Finals Preview
The Week in Quotes: June 21-27

2010-07-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Steal This Post - Revisited
2010-07-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #14
2010-07-01 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Scott Out And A Second Helping...
2010-06-28 - Fantasy Article Analyze This: Run Julio, Run
2010-06-25 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #13
2010-06-23 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: A Young Breakout - Part 2
2010-06-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: A Young Breakout

2010-10-10 - Analyze This: Foretelling Tim Hudson's Comeb...
2010-10-03 - Analyze This: Javier Vazquez, The Yankee
2010-09-19 - Analyze This: Checking up on July Acquisitio...
2010-06-28 - Fantasy Article Analyze This: Run Julio, Run
2010-03-16 - Fantasy Article Analyze This: Hot Spots: Catcher, Second Bas...
2010-02-23 - Analyze This: Building a Better Broadcast
2007-10-14 - Premium Article Analyze This: Hope, Faith, Change, and Money