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June 15, 2010

Expanded Horizons

In the Red

by Tommy Bennett

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A boo in Philadelphia often begins as a lonely protest. One frustrated fan will stand and register his discontent with the play on the field. “Boo,” he will say; “I don’t care for this one bit,” he thinks. But boos can take on a life of their own. They multiply and grow until what was once a single moment of frustration and disappointment precipitates from the sky like a deafening cold front. Philadelphia athletes are baptized in this cacophony of dissatisfaction (one that certainly needs no one-dollar accoutrement).

The boo birds have returned to Philadelphia. Many wondered if their traditional migratory patterns had been disrupted by post-season success in 2008 and 2009, but it appears that their noted directional skills and the stupefyingly poor play of the Phillies have conspired to bring them home to roost. Raul Ibañez—.247/.335/.394 and just 4 home runs—that’s a booing. Joe Blanton—7.28 ERA and 11 home runs allowed in 47 innings—that’s a booing. Greg Dobbs—.143/.206/.238 in 69 plate appearances—that’s definitely a booing.

For DeMille, Young Fur-henchmen Can't be Rowing

Since May 22, a date to which we’ll return to in a moment, the Phillies have gone 6-13, a span during which they have fallen from a division lead of 3 ½ games to third place, three games back of the rejuvenated Braves and a game behind the suddenly hot Mets. Over the same period, they’ve allowed 5.2 runs while scoring 2.5 runs a game. They even, in a series of events previously unimaginable to Broad Street denizens, managed to get swept by the Mets without the benefit of scoring even a single run. It is stretch that has, at the least, led prognosticators to cast about for answers.

The first thought of most number-happy calculator-slingers when they see a team go on a skid is that some element of it has been luck. Teams are rarely as good as they look when they’re winning, nor are they as bad as they look when losing, right? But the Phillies' Pythagenpat record over those last 19 games is an even worse 4-15. Perhaps more surprisingly, it has been the Phillies vaunted offense—supposedly the best in the NL—that has failed them. Over the same period, Chase Utley has hit .153/.253/.208; Ryan Howard, .230/.305/.365; and Jayson Werth, .164/.261/.262. You’d boo too, wouldn’t you?

We may not need advanced metrics to tell us that the Phillies’ recent performance has been bad, but it can help identify just how much they have struggled. First, let’s apply David Smyth’s BaseRuns run estimator to the Phillies’ offense and run prevention since May 22. This method, which relies on an intuitive model of run scoring, allows for analysis even in unusual run scoring environments, such as when a team has struggled to score runs. Doing so, we estimate that over this stretch the Phillies would have been expected to score 54 runs and allow 90, a slight improvement on their actual marks of 48 and 98, respectively, but still quite bad (a conclusion verified by the equivalent Pythagenpat record of 5-14).

Pardon Me, Roy, Is That the Cat That Chewed Your New Shoes?

What about opponent strength? Over our 19 game sample, the Phillies have faced (most recent combined Hit List ranking in parentheses) the Red Sox (7), Mets (15), Marlins (17), Braves (6), Padres (3), Marlins again, and Red Sox again. That’s a total of four series played against top-10 teams, and the rest against teams that are about average. You might expect many teams to struggle against a tough slate like that, but you might also reasonably expect a team most expected to make the playoffs to hold its own as well. After all, we’re talking about 11 games against the three strongest teams in the Phillies’ own division. To paraphrase Lester Freamon, that, right there, that is the job—to beat your division rivals, not just in September, but all season long.

To truly understand the magnitude of the Phillies’ struggles, I think it is instructive to visualize their performance over the course of the season. The chart below plots the Phillies’ runs scored and runs allowed for each game (filled dots are runs scored, unfilled dots are runs allowed) and applies a local regression trend line to each data set.

As should be clear from the chart, the team’s struggles began about 20 games ago, which coincides relatively well with our chosen date of May 22. Notice that the trend line for runs scored falls below that for runs allowed at approximately that point, and the runs-scored line has only recently begun to turn upwards. (Note for the curious: I applied a smoothing factor of 3/5 in my LOWESS curve; more sensitive smoothing factors show a more marked uptick in run scoring lately, in large part because of the 10-run effort against the Marlins on June 8.)

On May 22, the Phils faced Daisuke Matsuzaka and got shut out. The next day, they faced Tim Wakefield, who went eight innings without giving up a run. It’s possible the Phillies hit the mother of all funks by facing two of the junk-ballingest pitchers around—and in a day game after a night game, no less. But do effectively wild pitchers really have the ability to bewitch an entire, and otherwise potent, lineup?

One reason the Phillies’ sluggers are prone to extended slumps is because they are not high-contact hitters. In particular, two of the Phillies’ better hitters have high strikeout rates: Howard is at 32.2 percent for his career, and Werth (29.5 percent) isn’t far behind. And while we know the strikeouts by themselves don’t much affect their overall level of performance, what it does do is make it lumpier. Because they put the ball in play less often, the statistical variance on balls in play takes longer to play out, meaning that slumps themselves last longer.

Of course, that doesn’t explain everything. Chase Utley’s struggles can’t be blamed on strikeouts, since he strikes out less than the league average (15.3 percent of PAs this year). There exists legitimate debate about the degree to which Ibañez’s struggles signal an irreversible decline at age 38. While Domonic Brown has put together a nice season at Double-A Reading (.308/.382/.556 through Sunday), he has yet to see time at Triple-A or in the majors. Taking struggles as a cue to call for a shakeup works well enough because of the perceived lack of downside (“what’s the worst that can happen?”), but in reality, it can cause long-term damage to the team.

Sorting out exactly which players are set to rebound and which are struggling requires knowledge only the Phillies have, particularly including medical data. Absent some external reason to think that all of a sudden, the team’s hitters have gotten noticeably and permanently worse, there’s room to think the Phillies will go back to scoring runs—Utley, Werth, and Howard are hitters with good pedigrees and excellent skills. Without other information, it is difficult to believe that three weeks has changed all that.

Silly Rabbi, Kicks are for Trids

So what hope can there be in the Quaker City (other than the new Roots record, of course)? Well, for one thing, the run prevention should actually improve. Blanton’s very unseemly 7.28 ERA is a far cry from his useful-enough 4.82 SIERA. Jamie Moyer shares Blanton’s SIERA despite a 5.02 ERA (inflated to that level only after last Friday's nine-run drubbing). Cole Hamels, who often teeters on the edge of becoming the object of boo-bird ire, has pitched well of late and ranks 18th among starters in SIERA. While Roy Halladay’s SIERA (2.92) is a run above his actual ERA (1.96), perfect games tend to have that sort of effect.

It strikes me that the most likely outcome a week ago was that the Phillies’ offense would improve, and simply because that didn’t happen doesn’t mean it isn’t true today as well. Another week of futility should cause fans to temper their optimism some, but not altogether. With J.A. Happ in Double-A on a rehab assignment, and Jimmy Rollins set to begin one tonight, there are signs the Phillies could be ready to improve by the end of the month. After that comes the long, hard work of getting back to where they hoped to be. After all, there was always reason to think the Braves would be good.

Question of the Day

OK, doctors, what’s your diagnosis? How should the Phillies get the red line above the blue line? Will it happen in the natural course of things, or do more drastic measures need to be taken?

Related Content:  Philadelphia Phillies,  Phillies,  Stretch Run

11 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

kmbart

And following Matsuzaka and Wakefield, the Phillies got R.A. Dickey - another knuckleballer - when they squared off against the Mets. Just a little garnish for a recipe of disaster of the hitting/timing kind.

Jun 15, 2010 03:28 AM
rating: 1
 
Nick Carter

What's their record since they were accused of stealing signs?

Jun 15, 2010 05:20 AM
rating: 2
 
mikestack

Nick (and others),

This article is a couple weeks old, but discusses the performance change (as of June 1) since the binocular incident:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20100601_Paul_Hagen__Some_theories_on_Phillies_offensive_slide.html

"The Phillies were batting .271 as a team and averaging 5.41 runs per game before the Colorado Rockies alleged that bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer was using binoculars to steal the signs and then letting the Phillies hitters know what was coming.

Since then, .237 and 3.33."

Jun 15, 2010 05:30 AM
rating: 0
 
Tommy Bennett

Beware post hoc ergo propter hoc.

Jun 15, 2010 08:51 AM
rating: 0
 
mikestack

Not necessarily an endorsement on my part. But as a Mets fan, I find it entertaining. It's nice not to be the team with angst in the NL East this year.

But speaking as a Mets fan, I'm inclined to remember how the Mets offense fell apart when Jose Reyes was no longer on the base paths last year (and don't find their seemingly finding themselves as a team this year as his game has picked up a surprise) and would suspect that lacking Jimmy Rollins is causing a similar effect for the Phils.

Jun 15, 2010 09:31 AM
rating: 0
 
dbiester

Sure it's all about stealing signs, and has nothing to do with Polanco and Rollins being out, replaced by two guys swinging q-tips. They are going to trade Juan Castro for Jimmy Rollins, a great deal. They might consider trading Ibanez for Francisco, at least part of the time. And Ryan Madson will eventually be back, so the team will get better. More injuries could slide them into oblivion.

Jun 15, 2010 07:57 AM
rating: -3
 
jtrichey

You act as if someone said that the sign stealing was definitely the reason. Calm down.

Jun 15, 2010 20:33 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bill Baer
BP staff

The Phillies actually hit well shortly after Binoculargate. And it's hard to think that Mick Billmeyer's binoculars are responsible for the offensive success of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth all this time, especially considering he wasn't promoted to bullpen coach until after the Phillies won the World Series in 2008.

Jun 15, 2010 08:28 AM
 
Bob1475

I was at DiceKs game and have been at Citizens Bank Park for three games since. Quite frankly there has been little booing, acutally less than is probably justified. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the games have become a social scene for the 17-27 crowd.

As to what is happening I think it relates to Ibanez just getting older, Werth having a torrid first six weeks and just returning to his average via a horrible six weeks, and Utley. Utley is the one I cannot figure out. He usually does this in August/September - not May/June. If Utley returns to hitting .300 all will be well. Polanco will continue and Howard is doing fine.

Jun 15, 2010 09:05 AM
rating: 0
 
bflaff1

The Phils performed an almost identical swan dive last season that coincided exactly with the start of interleague play. Last year the vague excuse floated around the clubhouse was that the Phils for some reason couldn't muster enough intensity when playing against teams who weren't chasing them in the standings. It doesn't make a lot of sense, but the Phils charged out of the gates once interleague ended last year, so I assume for some reason that they'll do it again this year.

Jun 15, 2010 18:16 PM
rating: 0
 
dsc250

The swoon really started on May 18, when they followed a 12-2 win over the Pirates with a 2-1 loss. It's been brutal ever since.

Jun 16, 2010 12:47 PM
rating: 0
 
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