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May 29, 2010

Fantasy Beat

Buster Posey Called Up

by Marc Normandin

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He may not be ready to catch major league pitching yet according to general manager Brian Sabean, but Buster Posey is finally in the big leagues in 2010, according to ESPN's Buster Olney and AOL FanHouse's Ed Price. The plan is for him to play first base, which shifts Aubrey Huff to left field and allows Bengie Molina to remain behind the plate, improving the offense of a team that's ranked #23 in team TAv.

Huff's .287 TAv this year (thanks to a line of .281/.361/.450) was just average at first base, but as a left fielder, he's well above—left field currently sits at .269, meaning that Huff has more value there than at first. His weighted mean forecast was .279/.344/.463 with a TAv of .278, numbers he looks to be a little above thus far. He was already a solid option in NL-only leagues to play first, but now with impending outfield eligibility for the first time since 2007 he's a more attractive play.

The key to this whole move is Posey, of course. His weighted mean forecast heading into 2010 was .272/.348/.437, though his 80th and 90th percentiles were impressive looking numbers for a rookie: .288/.369/.480 and .297/.380/.503. Both of those lines would put him above the average at first base, but if you're playing him at catcher, his weighted mean TAv of .276 is still well ahead of the average at that position (.265).

A look at Posey's minor league numbers is enough to convince you that the top-tier projections are in the cards: the 23-year old has hit .349/.444/.552 with six homers, strikeouts in 17 percent of his at-bats and 28 walks on the season, giving him a TAv of .334 (TAv is tracked for minor leaguers as well, and translated to an MLB equivalent—to put things simply, Posey has been raking, PCL or not). [EDIT] That was Posey's untranslated TAv--the translated version is .307, which is still well above the average for a first baseman and even further ahead for a catcher.

Considering Posey was supposed to play first base all the way back in April—I drafted him in an NL-only league based on that premise, one that the Giants didn't bother following through on until just now—he may not be available in your league. Looking over the percentages though, it looks like he's available in far more leagues than he isn't—just 0.9 percent of ESPN leagues already own Posey, but 54 percent of CBS leagues already have him in their employ.

15 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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tommybones

Who's next? Any big prospect come up before Strasburg? Carlos Santana seems like a no-brainer. The excuse that he needs more defensive seasoning makes little sense, since he can work on it with Sandy Alomar at the major league level for a team which isn't going anywhere anyway. Pedro Alvarez has heated up in May, also... maybe he's next.

May 29, 2010 09:43 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

I keep hearing Mike Stanton is coming up soon, so maybe he's the next one. He might be post-Strasburg though, depending on when Young Stephen makes his way to the majors.

May 29, 2010 10:49 AM
rating: 0
 
tommybones

Forgot about him. Yeah, he looks like a call-up soon...

May 29, 2010 12:13 PM
rating: 0
 
cbirkemeier

Posey or Napoli the rest of the way?

May 29, 2010 10:41 AM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

Posey may not slug as high, but should have a better batting average and will pick up more playing time (while also playing at two positions). It depends on how your roster is constructed--if it's keeper, Posey no doubt.

May 29, 2010 10:48 AM
rating: 0
 
tommybones

With Matsui struggling, I could see Napoli splitting time with Mathis at C and Matsui at DH. We know he can produce, we don't know anything for sure as far as to what Posey's gonna do (see: Wieters). I'd go with Napoli myself.

May 29, 2010 12:12 PM
rating: 0
 
xavier

How does this affect PT in the SF outfield, with Huff moving out there? Torres back to the bench?

May 29, 2010 12:34 PM
rating: 0
 
nateetan

Schierholtz to bench, although Rowand should get some time off too. At least as long as Torres is hitting.

May 29, 2010 21:49 PM
rating: 0
 
Rob Miller
(162)

Buster Posey to 1b, to keep Bengie Molina in the lineup. Only in the so-called mind of Brian Sabean...

May 29, 2010 12:39 PM
rating: 1
 
nateetan

Need to get Bengie back on track for a few weeks so they can trade him to one of the AL teams fielding dead meat at catcher.

May 29, 2010 21:50 PM
rating: 1
 
aztropf

Weird timing. Given his service time last year, Posey is pretty much guaranteed to be a Super-2 player (assuming he stays up all year) in a few years. And yet the Giants waited a few extra weeks anyway. Posey could have been up 2 weeks ago helping them out at the same basic cost.

May 29, 2010 14:24 PM
rating: 0
 
Brian Kopec

Perhaps he wasn't ready to catch major league infield throws.

May 29, 2010 18:57 PM
rating: 4
 
dianagram

Panda to Posey .... I like the sound of that.

May 29, 2010 21:20 PM
rating: 0
 
tommybones

Seriously, this move makes Sabean look even dumber than previously thought. We at least gave him the benefit of the doubt, assuming he was paying lip-service to Posey's need to improve in the minors when he was actually managing his service time. But now? He virtually guarantees Posey becomes a super-2, after having him miss two months in the majors anyway. Unreal.

May 30, 2010 08:46 AM
rating: 1
 
R.A.Wagman

playing devil's advocate for a moment - is it possible that there are enough good rookies who already debuted this year that this year's Super-two crop may require a shorter window to qualify?

May 30, 2010 09:15 AM
rating: 0
 
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Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Michae... (05/28)
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The Week in Quotes: Th... (05/31)

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