With this week's National and American League Hit Lists posted on their regular schedule and me NOT on heavy painkilers (unlike last week, when I was out on a brief medical leave), here's this week's combined Hit List rankings, with the league adjustments we've discussed before. This marks the first week that the preseason PECOTA projections are not part of the LF computation; this is all based on results to date. Before you gripe about bias against your team, take a look at their run differential, and see here for a primer on the basics.
Rk Team Comments
1 Rays .697
2 Yankees .690
3 Twins .642
4 Padres .616
5 Giants .585
6 Phillies .575
7 Tigers .575
8 Blue Jays .571
9 Cardinals .570
10 Rangers .565
11 Red Sox .539
12 Rockies .522
13 Athletics .514
14 Braves .498
15 Nationals .488
16 Mets .488
17 Dodgers .487
18 Reds .478
19 Marlins .476
20 White Sox .473
21 Cubs .470
22 Brewers .455
23 Mariners .439
24 Indians .430
25 Royals .410
26 D'backs .394
27 Angels .392
28 Orioles .387
29 Astros .315
30 Pirates .270
So we're down to four NL teams in the top 10, none of them above the Padres at number four. The not-so-mighty Cardinals, the fourth-ranked team in the last combo rankings, are much closer to falling out of that grouping, though there's just one other Senior Circuit team above .500 after the 21-point deduction. In the AL, the Blue Jays are the big gainer, up from #13 to #8, with the A's swapping spots, perfect game and all.
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One revealing aspect about the AL's advantage over the NL is that even the lousier junior circuit teams are beating the senior circuit's weak sisters consistently. Sticking with the last five years of data (including this unfinished season) and splitting each league into upper and lower halves in terms of interleague records -- the 35 best (or worst) team-seasons in each half in the AL, 40 in the NL -- we find that the AL's better half, which won at a .561 clip in those intraleague games, boosted their winning percentage to .610 in interleague games. The lower half, which produced a measly .438 winning percentage in intraleague play, kicked NL tail at a .523 clip. The NL's better half posted a .551 winning percentage in intraleague play but just a .447 mark in interleague play, while the lower half dipped from .450 to .421.