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April 1, 2010

Fantasy Beat

PFM Update 4-1

by Clay Davenport

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No joke, we do have a new PFM/depth chart update hot on the charts.

We do have one occasionally significant change to the data (besides players changing teams, like Julio Lugo). Something in the last week got out of whack on the pitcher's games pitched and games started, as a result of which a bunch of pitchers were listed as "Swing" pitchers even though we were projecting them to be full-time starters. I'm not sure how it got that way, but it has been corrected.

While I was fixing that, I also took the opportunity to drive some changes in how we handle starters and relievers. The ERA (and other stats) from PECOTA come with estimates for games started and relieved. Generally speaking, a pitcher working in relief will be able to strike out a few more hitters, give up a few less hits, and produce a better ERA and WHIP than he can while starting. Some rough estimates of that have been present in the mondo spreadsheet that puts together the depth charts, but we haven't carried those changes into the PFM output - until now.

The effects of the changes are probably best illustrated by looking at one pitcher, and there's no better example really than Joba Chamberlain.

Run PECOTA normally            40 games, 28 starts, 138 ip, 4.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

Run PECOTA in relief mode     55 games, 20 starts, 123 ip, 3.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

With new adjustments            63 games, 0 starts, 65 ip, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.0 K/9

 

There are internal safeguards in the main PECOTA program that inhibit really drastic changes; primarily, these are error checks, but in the case of a pitcher changing from starting to relieving (or vice versa) it prevents you from eliminating all the starts  (or all the relief appearances).  This manual fix works, but the longer goal will be to get the main program modified to handle this without breaking down. The "normal" line reflects Chamberlain's forecast up until the point he lost the fifth starter competition to Phil Hughes; the relief mode calculation is what you'd find in the PFM for the last week, until today (and still shows that way in the unadjusted section of the Pecota spreadsheet); the last line is what you'll find in today's PFM. The differences will be largest for those making the largest role changes - Chamberlain, Hughes, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz, off the top of my head.

 

Enjoy!

 

PS - Jorge Cantu, back to mere mortal status.

 

31 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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wilykat

Maybe this is a stupid question, but...

Why is it that when I set up a league with 10 teams and 23 players per team (default positions), the PFM prices 253 players (23 * 11) instead of 230? 148 hitters, 105 pitchers. The total money spent is $2,611.32, which I am willing to assume is within a rounding error of $2600, but...

- Mike

Apr 01, 2010 16:18 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

I'm going to hazard a guess that 23 of those players have a salary below $1...you should have 230 players at $1 or above, and those players should sum to $2600.

Apr 01, 2010 18:29 PM
 
LynchMob

That's always been my experience

Apr 02, 2010 06:12 AM
rating: 0
 
Ira

Feliz striking out 89 in 65 innings is interesting. I'm intrigued as to why every Rangers Reliever is scheduled to pitch either 65 or 60 innings and give up 7 or 8 home runs.

Apr 01, 2010 16:23 PM
rating: 0
 
evo34

Any reason why almost every player is projected to be above average defensively -- both for 2010 for for 10-year projection? It never looked like this is past years.

Apr 01, 2010 16:53 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

A quick look at shortstops who make the PFM I happened to have up (both leagues, 12 teams) shows 20 shortstops, 10 above average, 10 below. 26 centerfielders, 15 above, 11 below. There is a slight bias in the ratings - about 1 run per player - which is consistent with having a slight above average bias in the batting and pitching stats as well.

I do think there is a more substantial problem in the long-term stats, which I have not yet been able to identify, that tends to ratchet an above-average or below-average fielding rating into much higher absolute values.

Apr 04, 2010 07:04 AM
 
reedbaessler

Thanks much for the Cantu fix.

Apr 01, 2010 17:39 PM
rating: 0
 
zola7914

what was wrong w/ Cantu?

Apr 01, 2010 19:40 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

When first sent his line had about 1100 plate appearances in it, with counting stats to match. Gave him a pretty high $ value.

Apr 01, 2010 21:18 PM
 
DanDaMan

Clay, the PFM still seems way out of wack. I was trying to use it the other night and it came up with Julio Borbon ahead of Pujols. Pujols!? Maglio Ordonez at #12 overall? Matsui in the top 20. Am I doing something wrong? This doesn't jive at all with my rankings (or Mark's for that matter).
Dan

Apr 02, 2010 06:10 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

Without knowing your settings, I have no idea what happened there, but I cannot reproduce such a result from any non-bizarre settings. Did it show up like that on one refresh or on multiple ones? It may be possible to get strange results if you have the bad luck to be online at the exact time I make an update, but it should fix itself the next time you hit "update".

Apr 04, 2010 07:07 AM
 
Shankweather

The PFM projections are showing a 4.09 ERA for MLB this year. 4.03 for the NL and 4.15 for the AL. That seems unlikely. It's actually lower now than previous releases.

Apr 02, 2010 06:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

No, I am not forecasting such a line for MLB. What individual forecasts add up to and what the league as a whole would be forecast for are two very different things. As to being lower than previous, more players gain from the start/relief patch I added than are hurt by it.

Apr 04, 2010 07:10 AM
 
LynchMob

In case anyone wants a minor-special-case to check out, I don't understand David Freese's projected BA of .234 ... just seems low based on his track record ...

Apr 02, 2010 06:35 AM
rating: 0
 
michaelspratt

Why has McLouth taken a dive? He literally lost $15 in 3 days. I know he's struggled in the spring, but I'm lost (and upset since I bought him at what appears to be a much inflated price).

Apr 02, 2010 08:17 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Possibly because there is talk of a possible platoon of McLouth, or at least moving him way down in the order.

Apr 02, 2010 10:06 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

I took a chunk of his playing time out for Cabrera and Diaz, partly on spring performance, partly on the hamstring issue that popped up, partly on chances of no longer leading off (even though I still list him in the #1 slot; reducing PT is a backdoor way of shifting him down the roster).

Apr 04, 2010 07:16 AM
 
LynchMob

Berkman needs at least some downgrade to his PAs (from 567) as the injury forecast gets more and more grim ...

And, along those lines, Chris Johnson needs some PFM love ... me thinks ...

Apr 02, 2010 10:59 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

Still sounds like he's back mid-April, and Johnson probably goes down when he does. But yes, I am keeping an eye on him and will change when its needed.

Apr 04, 2010 07:20 AM
 
Spraguer

Related to the Starter/Reliever problem: something is a little screwy with the Rel% (which I assume is % of innings pitched in relief). Take for example Mitch Atkins, who (on the playing time adjusted sheet) is projected for 30 games, 5 games started, 53 innings pitched and an 83% Rel%. That would mean 9 innings pitched as a starter, or less than 2 per start. Such is the case with most (all?) pitchers with Rel% other than 100% or 0%.

Apr 02, 2010 15:48 PM
rating: 0
 
swarmee

It looks like it's working correctly. If he pitches 83% of his appearances in relief, he's pitching in 25 of the 30. If he pitches 1 inning per relief appearance, that leaves 28 IP remaining for 5 starts, or about 5 2/3 innings a start.

Apr 02, 2010 17:41 PM
rating: 0
 
Spraguer

swarmee, you're absolutely correct. I was thinking that rel% was percentage of innings pitched in relief - not percentage of appearances.

In years past, percentage of innings in relief (or maybe it was percentage of innings as a starter) appeared on the PECOTA spreadsheet - but as you say, it is percentage of appearances this year.

Apr 02, 2010 20:32 PM
rating: 0
 
evo34

Reposting:

Any reason why almost every player is projected to be above average defensively -- both for 2010 for for 10-year projection? It never looked like this in past years.


Can someone from BP address the seeming defensive rating inflation in this year's PECOTA cards? It's not a subtle change.

Apr 02, 2010 23:17 PM
rating: 0
 
Spraguer

I noticed that too, evo34. One possible explanation is that this year they are using Fielding Runs Above Replacement, whereas in years past it was Fielding Runs Above Average.

Apr 03, 2010 05:07 AM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

Whither Jennry Mejia? Mike Leake?

Apr 03, 2010 20:18 PM
rating: 0
 
swarmee

Mike Leake now has 85 projected IP as of their 4/4 depth charts.

Apr 04, 2010 06:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Clay Davenport
BP staff
(7)

I have Leake in for 15 starts now; he's not going to be given a lot of leeway if he struggles much at all, Wood will be sitting right on his tail at AAA, and Chapman and Volquez will also play into the picture eventually. If he does well in his first few real starts I'll probably start extending his projection to 18, 20, 25.

Mejia is also getting 50 innings now, and many of the concerns for Leake (being an unproven rookie generally means a short leash) hold for him. In his favor is the chaos in the Met bullpen.

Apr 04, 2010 07:26 AM
 
mblthd

Hmm, maybe I'm doing something wrong. I ran the PFM a few days ago (before the announcement that Leake and Mejia had made their respective NL teams) after entering my league's keepers and salaries. Neither Mejia nor Leake showed up at all in the PFM.

I did do the "Bookmark This Page" thing so I wouldn't have to re-enter my league's keepers, and re-ran the PFM, and neither Leake nor Mejia are showing up. Maybe I need to start from scratch (i.e., re-enter my league's keepers and salaries) to make Leake and Mejia show up in the PFM?

Apr 04, 2010 08:44 AM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

Hmm... I think I just answered my own (dumb) question. I just re-ran a dummy PFM using Holds as the only category, and Mejia came up at a value of $13. I guess now I can conclude that, in my "Bookmark This Page" PFM, with my league's basic 5X5 categories, Mejia's and Leake's projected value must be less than $0.01?

Sorry to follow up one dumb question with another - thanks for your help!!

Apr 04, 2010 08:52 AM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

Okay then - I just changed the "Minimum $$" setting to negative-10, and now I see Leake and Mejia. Sorry for the previous posts, please disregard, etc.

Apr 04, 2010 09:55 AM
rating: 0
 
dREaDS Fan

Question: A day before my auction, I'm sifting thru players and notice that PFM has Kyle Lohse down for a 3.88era / 1.31 whip.

But the Annual has him projected at a 4.45 era / 1.42 whip.

What might possibly explain such a difference in rate stats?

Apr 04, 2010 20:30 PM
rating: 0
 
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