Boston Red Sox | PECOTA | 2007-09 | Scoresheet | Short-Term PT% | |||||||||||||||
Third Base | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% | TB/H | vRH | vLH | Rng | 1B | 3B | DH | All |
Adrian Beltre | 31 | 524 | 18 | 63 | 65 | 9 | .271 | .323 | .437 | 15% | 6% | 1.65 | –40 | +100 | 2.75 | 0 | 95 | 0 | 95 |
Bill Hall | 30 | 171 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 2 | .239 | .302 | .403 | 28% | 8% | 1.70 | –33 | +68 | 2.67 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
Mike Lowell | 36 | 246 | 9 | 31 | 37 | 1 | .276 | .335 | .456 | 12% | 8% | 1.61 | –24 | +61 | 2.63 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
Heater team expert: | Avg for First Base | .275 | .359 | .477 | 17% | 11% | 1.74 | vRH = OPSvR | Figures by Heater | ||||||||||
Evan Brunell | Avg for Third Base | .269 | .339 | .434 | 18% | 9% | 1.61 | vLH = OPSvL | New upgrade | ||||||||||
Avg for Desig. Hitter | .263 | .350 | .468 | 19% | 11% | 1.78 | Rng = Range | New downgrade |
SPRING TRAINING | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | K/BB | SB/CS | |
Adrian Beltre | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .278 | .350 | .278 | 3/4 | 0/0 | |
Bill Hall | 41 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .171 | .271 | .293 | 8/6 | 0/0 | |
Mike Lowell | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .182 | .100 | 2/0 | 0/0 | Spring training stats per Heater |
Adrian Beltre will hold down Boston’s hot corner in 2010, replacing the aging, increasingly fragile Mike Lowell, whose offseason thumb surgery prevented an offseason trade and scared Boston enough to acquire Bill Hall. Heater’s Evan Brunell says Lowell should get as much playing time as his health allows to showcase him for a trade, and he could miss the start of the season after fouling a ball off his knee. Brunell points out that Lowell’s offense hasn’t suffered from his increasing immobility, and PECOTA agrees that he’ll have very little ratio dropoff from 2009.
Whatever PT Lowell gets won’t be at third, where the Red Sox have utilityman Hall, whose offense is barely acceptable at MIF and not at all at third base. Hall’s high K% explains his weak BA, and his SLG has plummeted from a .437 EqSLG in 2007 to last year’s .350 EqSLG. With plenty of position qualifications, Hall is an acceptable MIF option in a deep AL-only league, but not anywhere else.
Beltre's PECOTA projection places him in average third-base territory, though there’s room for optimism. His EqSLG won’t return to its 2007 peak of .501, but 2009’s power was depressed by a second shoulder surgery and a painful DL stint. Assuming a return to health, Beltre’s power history and recent drop in strikeout rates gives him a good shot to beat PECOTA. His elite days are behind him, but Beltre is a mid-range third-base option who’ll deliver good results in several categories, including SB, with a possible power upside.
Atlanta Braves | PECOTA | 2007-09 | Scoresheet | Short-Term PT% | |||||||||||||||
First Base | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% | TB/H | vRH | vLH | Rng | 1B | 3B | DH | All |
Troy Glaus | 33 | 542 | 17 | 61 | 68 | 2 | .252 | .347 | .416 | 19% | 13% | 1.79 | –1 | +3 | – | 85 | 0 | 0 | 85 |
Eric Hinske | 32 | 383 | 14 | 46 | 46 | 4 | .234 | .329 | .412 | 22% | 12% | 1.87 | +26 | –91 | – | 15 | 5 | 0 | 25 |
Martin Prado | 26 | 619 | 13 | 81 | 66 | 4 | .302 | .361 | .446 | 11% | 7% | 1.46 | –24 | +152 | 1.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
Heater team expert: | Avg for First Base | .275 | .359 | .477 | 17% | 11% | 1.74 | vRH = OPSvR | Figures by Heater | ||||||||||
Martin Gandy | Avg for Third Base | .269 | .339 | .434 | 18% | 9% | 1.61 | vLH = OPSvL | New upgrade | ||||||||||
Avg for Desig. Hitter | .263 | .350 | .468 | 19% | 11% | 1.78 | Rng = Range | New downgrade |
SPRING TRAINING | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | K/BB | SB/CS | |
Troy Glaus | 37 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .378 | .511 | .405 | 10/10 | 0/0 | |
Eric Hinske | 34 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .382 | .500 | .500 | 5/6 | 0/0 | |
Martin Prado | 45 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .378 | .491 | .533 | 6/10 | 0/1 |
Spring training stats per Heater |
In the past three years, Atlanta mixed Adam LaRoche and Mark Teixiera at first base with the less-productive Casey Kotchman and Scott Thorman. They "solved" this in 2010 by sharing time between the more equivalent talents of Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske, and Hinske’s strong spring training performance has allowed Atlanta to keep Martin Prado at second base, where he’s a much more valuable asset.
Troy Glaus will be the primary first baseman, an unfamiliar position, but any position might feel a little unfamiliar after missing most of 2009 due to shoulder surgery rehab and back problems. Because of this, Heater’s Braves expert Martin Gandy doesn’t think Glaus is ready for full time, and PECOTA’s low SLG projections further depress his value; he needs to get into the 80th percentile to be a good 1B play. Other projection systems give him a better SLG, but still not enough to climb above average.
Gandy sees Eric Hinske keeping Glaus rested, perhaps even pushing him to perform better, while Hinske will also back up Chipper Jones. Given the age and health histories of both CIFs, Hinske could be in for even more playing time. Though he brings more HRs and a tad more SBs, Hinske’s a step down from Glaus, since his lower contact rates deflate his average. Also, Hinske’s delivered a .741 OPS in his only other NL experience with Pittsburgh in 2009, which doesn’t bode well. This all makes Glaus a decent end-game pickup in NL-only and deep mixed leagues, while Hinske’s roster flexibility carries some value in the deepest NL-only leagues.
Florida Marlins | PECOTA | 2007-09 | Scoresheet | Short-Term PT% | |||||||||||||||
Third Base | Age | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% | TB/H | vRH | vLH | Rng | 1B | 3B | DH | All |
Emilio Bonifacio | 25 | 246 | 1 | 26 | 20 | 9 | .252 | .308 | .335 | 20% | 7% | 1.27 | –7 | +18 | 2.64 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
Jorge Cantu | 28 | 647 | 22 | 77 | 88 | 4 | .281 | .343 | .448 | 15% | 7% | 1.62 | –7 | +18 | 2.57 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 90 |
Wes Helms | 34 | 235 | 4 | 23 | 27 | 1 | .240 | .302 | .336 | 22% | 6% | 1.43 | –18 | +36 | 2.60 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Heater team expert: | Avg for First Base | .275 | .359 | .477 | 17% | 11% | 1.74 | vRH = OPSvR | Figures by Heater | ||||||||||
Michael Jong | Avg for Third Base | .269 | .339 | .434 | 18% | 9% | 1.61 | vLH = OPSvL | New upgrade | ||||||||||
Avg for Desig. Hitter | .263 | .350 | .468 | 19% | 11% | 1.78 | Rng = Range | New downgrade |
SPRING TRAINING | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | K/BB | SB/CS | |
Emilio Bonifacio | 48 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .292 | .340 | .479 | 9/4 | 0/0 | |
Jorge Cantu | 47 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .277 | .320 | .404 | 8/2 | 0/0 | |
Wes Helms | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .455 | .320 | 6/6 | 0/0 | Spring training stats per Heater |
Gaby Sanchez's strong spring training tells Heater’s Michael Jong that Florida’s corner infield situation has come into focus around Jorge Cantu, who will share time at first base with Sanchez but spend most of his time at third, with Wes Helms as his primary backup.
Cantu finally repeated his 2005 breakout season in 2008 by cutting his strikeout rate by five percent and returning to career HR/FB norms. These improved rates boosted his BA by about 20 points when he also increased his FB rate by 11 percent, and Cantu sustained that production in 2009 despite a dropoff in HR rate. When that rate rebounds, he should beat PECOTA, making him even better third-base option. The same can’t be said for Helms, who wouldn’t be a good option even in his 90th PECOTA percentile. Helms’ glove will make him a late-inning replacement for Cantu, and he’ll get starts during interleague play, when Cantu is DHing, or when Sanchez needs a break against tough pitching. And if Cantu needs to replace Sanchez, who’s in his first full MLB season, Helms would slide into third base nearly full-time.
All that PT upside still doesn’t improve Helms’ ratios enough to make him acceptable, no matter how deep your league. Super sub Emilio Bonifacio brings steals, but Gandy agrees that he’s so one-dimensional that he’ll damage your other categories. Cantu’s clearly the guy you want out of this bunch, a very good hot-corner choice in any league, though he’s a bit underpowered at first base in standard mixed leagues.
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It might be good for Atlanta to know Hinske to throw, in case they end up in one of those blowout games that have allowed hitters like Wade Boggs to realize a lifelong dream and toe the rubber for an inning or less. That always makes for good highlight material, but I doubt his appearance was anything serious.
Thanks!
Here's the game: http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2010_03_13_tormlb_atlmlb_1
It seems to be a confused score-keeper. O'Flaherty came in to pitch the 7th as part of a double switch, with Hinske replacing Glaus at first. In the "live" box score, this came through as Hinske pitching the inning (and presumably O'Flaherty playing first).
Sorry for the mis-information!
Are you saying that while Hinske has been productive playing in the AL East, he can't handle the NL? This doesn't make any sense, and his .741 OPS is from part-time play in half a season, the very definition of small sample size in comparison to his 2 1/2 seasons with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees.
I would absolutely agree that it's a small sample space, and should have noted that it was measured over 106 PAs. But Hinske's been a part-time player no matter where he's been, at least lately--his 115 games started with TB in 2008 was the first time since 2005 that he'd started 100+ games. So his experience in Pittsburgh in that regard is comparable to his time with the Yanks and Red Sox. (Though let's not forget Toronto all those years ago, where he did play full time).
It's a great point, though I'm still not bullish on Hinske's chances with Atlanta.
Thanks for your comment!
Perhaps he is a better option in an NL only league since he can't kill your batting average when his stats wouldn't count, but I presume you meant AL only league. I would try very hard not to roster him either way.
I've fixed in in the blog. Thanks!