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March 3, 2010

Team Health Reports

Chicago White Sox

by Will Carroll

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Team Health Reports  

The Summary: Herm Schneider's staff could argue they deserve another Dick Martin Award after another great year in 2009. They belong at the top of any discussion about how an effective medical staff can contribute to a winning team. Despite "heavy" workloads on the starting staff and a bullpen that is made up of guys with thick medical files prior to coming to the Sox, they all just seem to cruise along. Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye were kept healthy and productive despite chronic problems. The one black spot on last year was the plantar fasciitis that sidelined Carlos Quentin. There's no one, aside from Albert Pujols, that has played through that, so it's hard to knock the Sox here. If they can get Quentin back and keep up the rest of their work, the South (Side) may rise again.

The Facts
Days Lost:
291
Dollars Lost: $3,021,467.39
Injury Cost: $6,548,750.00

The Cost: The White Sox were one of the few teams to be well below the league average in 2009, losing only $3 million due to injury. Chicago has consistently been one of the more successful teams in the dollars lost category; losing $19.7 million over the last three years. The vast majority of last year's injury cost came from the 48 days that Chicago's prized 2009 additon, Jake Peavy, was on the disabled list. Peavy's 2009 count for the Sox was $2.1 million. Chicago brought in the huge contracts of Peavy and Alex Rios last season, and it's not too hard to think that the training staff's strong work the last few years allowed them to absorb the extra $116 million. The Sox saved nearly $11 million dollars compared to the rest of the league, and they spent the money this offseason by giving Mark Teahen and J.J. Putz a combined $17 million. Whether that money has been well-spent can be debated, but the training staff sure has allowed them to be able to spend the money.

The Big Risk: Peavy's ankle looks fine following an offseason of hunting, fishing, and working on his stability. Peavy should be ready to return to ace level. We can't park-adjust risk, but look to his starts as the best measure of how this staff dealt with him. The ankle injury that Peavy suffered isn't one that should linger. In those late-season starts, it was clear that the ankle, even braced, didn't cause significant observable changes in his mechanics. Since we have a discrete time frame on the injury, it's likely that Peavy didn't have a period where his arm was being overtaxed.

The Comeback: Almost no one comes back from plantar fasciitis. The one big exception? Pujols. Of course, he's not human, and Quentin is. The effectiveness of the medical staff at keeping Quentin productive could be the difference between first place and fourth. One new therapy that's being used is called lithotripsy. Originally developed to help with kidney stones, it consists of pulses of sound being carried into soft tissue to break up the small osseous spurs that cause the inflammation. If you've ever stood in front of a speaker at Prive on a Friday night, you still have no idea what this is like. Pujols described his experience as "like being hit on the feet with sticks." We'll see if the advanced techniques of sports medicine and a great staff can make Quentin like Pujols in at least one way.

The Trend: The hardest thing to find in sports is consistency. It's worse in sports medicine, where even good staffs can be whipsawed by one bad unlucky injury. Over the last 10 years, the White Sox have just been good. Schneider is in the first row of the class picture of the old school, but no one can argue with the results. Over and over, his ability to get players back ahead of schedule and keep them back has helped the White Sox outplay their expectations. There's no reason to think that will stop until Herm does. 

The Ratings

Red lightRF Carlos Quentin: See The Comeback.
Red light SP John Danks: Danks has put up two 195-plus inning seasons. That either makes him really good or really risky. Maybe both. This is just into the red zone, so don't panic. The underlying baseline for young pitchers is very high.
Red light SP Freddy Garcia: When the Sox traded Garcia, whispers were that even Ozzie Guillen didn't think Garcia had much left. He showed that he didn't, but the Sox do hope they can keep him together long enough to eat some innings.
Yellow light SP Gavin Floyd: Floyd just missed his second 200-inning season last year due to a hip problem. It's said to be cleared up. His rating isn't significantly different from Danks', except for the age factor. It's hard to say we're overrating the risk on Danks and underrating it on Floyd, but that's what it feels like.
Yellow light SP Jake Peavy: See The Big Risk.

Yellow light CL Bobby Jenks: Jenks is just under the red level after a series of injuries rendered him ineffective last year. He's already said to be behind schedule this season, since the Sox had him focus more on his weight than his arm. We'll have to see how that all works out.
Green light C A.J. Pierzynski
Green light 1B Paul Konerko: There are ratings that will come up and I say "huh?" This is one of those. Konerko's factors come up just shy of yellow, but I'm stunned with his history that it doesn't come out red. Part of it is that PIPP sees a DH here, especially now that Jim Thome is gone. 
Green light 2B Gordon Beckham: Beckham stays green despite bouncing around positions. The position change risk gets a little overblown since it's not well understood. It's risky only in the short period where the change isn't natural, even going down the positional risk ladder. Changing positions with a full offseason plus spring training should be less risky.
Green light SS Alexi Ramirez
Green light 3B Mark Teahen
Green light LF Juan Pierre
Green light CF Alex Rios
Green light DH Andruw Jones
Green light SP Mark Buehrle
Green light RP Matt Thornton

Related Content:  Year Of The Injury

17 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

larry

Will,

I'm interested in the PF issue - who are some of the players who didn't come back? Thanks.

Mar 03, 2010 10:26 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

McGwire missed a chunk of his career and eventually ended bc of it. The one I remember most clearly is Marty Cordova. I'm not near my database and I dont have the 90s, when it first got diagnosed properly.

Mar 03, 2010 10:38 AM
 
YaoPau

Just from a google search, Marco Scutaro had it last year and the Red Sox cleared him for trade, and Jason Giambi had a productive 2008 after having pf in 2007.

I did a double-take when I read your quote. From what I've seen, pf is a pretty routine injury in basketball and football, with plenty of stars playing back at 100% after a couple months' rest.

Mar 03, 2010 12:13 PM
rating: 0
 
colintj

this was my understanding too. i'd really like to see a comprehensive list, but i understand there are proprietary concerns. way to ruin my day, will.

Mar 03, 2010 14:20 PM
rating: 0
 
Wade

didn't PF end Jay Buhner's career?

Mar 04, 2010 07:43 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

I think you're right. Can't find anything to confirm, but I remember it that way.

Mar 04, 2010 08:23 AM
 
Tdiggity5

"Almost no one comes back from plantar fasciitis." Will can you explain this comment? Are you referring to a specific time period or ever?

Mar 03, 2010 10:33 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

Ten years ago, never. Getting possible now.

Mar 03, 2010 10:38 AM
 
Richie

So exactly what does PIPP think about the DH keeping previously-unhealthy players up and swinging? Darned pertinent to valuing Vladdy for this upcoming season.

Mar 03, 2010 10:38 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

Might I suggest reading the TX THR, which came out previously?

Mar 03, 2010 11:47 AM
 
airlifting

It seems like the Sox have so many greens...maybe that's just because you didn't comment on many, but I'm guessing Schneider's history of success has a lot to do with that. Would any of these players show up differentlt in, say, the Mets or Reds organization?

Mar 03, 2010 10:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

It helps, but it's not a massive team adjustment. A guy like Jones was very close, but probably would have been green in TEX. Rios is an odd case and while green, I'm not real confident in that rating and almost wrote something on that. Ramirez's rating is a bit all over the place bc there's just no comps or confidence in where he'll play.

Mar 03, 2010 11:46 AM
 
colintj

i assume you mean would not have been green? and i'm a little surprised that the difference is so miniscule since Texas lost the 3rd most days to the DL since '02 and the Sox lost the fewest.

Mar 03, 2010 14:25 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

Data needs context. I've often said DL days alone are a terrible measure.

Mar 03, 2010 15:37 PM
 
colintj

We're talking about since '02. That's a lot of games. I'd want to see the math before accepting that as in need of serious correction or regression.

Not to mention that adjusting for DL days seems to explain the Angels and White Sox continually overperforming their PECOTA.

Mar 07, 2010 00:09 AM
rating: 0
 
fawcettb

The system clearly doesn't calculate inside-the-head injuries/malfunctions, or Rios wouldn't get a green. With guys like him, the weight of a fat contract in their back pocket ought to be considered a major hazard.

Mar 04, 2010 06:37 AM
rating: -3
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

Well, if you can come up with a system that does that, you'll be ahead of me.

Mar 04, 2010 08:24 AM
 
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Premium Article An Agent's Take: Crisi... (03/02)
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