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July 28, 2015

BP Announcements

Playoff Odds Update

by Nick Wheatley-Schaller

If you frequent our Playoff Odds Report, you may have noticed that we have added graphs that show each team's daily playoff odds.

By default, the graphs will show you each team's Adjusted Playoff Odds, which demonstrate the team's chance of making it to the LDS round. Below each graph, there are buttons that will let you view graphs of

  • Playoff Pct: the probability of the team either winning their division or making it to the Wild Card Game
  • Division Win Pct: the probability of the team winning their division
  • Wild Card Pct: the probability of the team reaching the Wild Card Game
  • Playoff Pct 1 Day Change: the team's change in Playoff Pct (unadjusted) over the previous day
  • Playoff Pct 7 Day Change: the team's change in Playoff Pct (unadjusted) over the previous week
  • Expected Win Pct: the team's rest-of-season expected win rate, independent of strength of schedule
  • Avg Win Total: the team's average number of total regular season wins in all simulations from that date

Click on the button of your choice and the graph will update accordingly.


You can use the "display grouped by" option at the top of the page to view charts by Division, League, or view all MLB teams at once.


You can show and hide teams by clicking on their entry in the chart legend. To show or hide all teams on a chart, click the "Toggle All" button. The quickest way to view the chart of one specific team is to click "Toggle All" to hide all teams, then click on the team you'd like to view.


If you'd like to take a look at a subset of the season, click and drag your cursor over the period you'd like to view. Click "Reset Zoom" to return to the full year view.


To learn more about our Playoff Odds, you can view the Feature Focus from last year.

Nick Wheatley-Schaller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Nick's other articles. You can contact Nick by clicking here

Related Content:  Playoff Odds

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