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June 13, 2013

Eyewitness Accounts

June 13, 2013

by BP Prospect Staff

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Direct Links to Individual Player Reports

Jorge Alfaro Courtney Hawkins Nick Williams Henry Owens
Jose Ramirez Sam Selman Gregory Polanco Sean Nolin

***

Jorge Alfaro

C/1B

Texas Rangers

DOB 6/11/1993

Height: 6’2’’

Bats R

MLB ETA 2016

Weight: 185

Throws R

Current Team: Hickory Crawdads

Date(s) Seen 6/7/2013-6/9/2013

Filed by/Date: Chris Mellen, 6/11/2013

How Acquired: International Free Agent, 2010

Have Video? No

Physical/Health

Sturdy frame; some more room to fill out; athletic; may lose some athleticism as fills out or due to defensive rigors of catching position; strong arms; weight in lower body.

Hit Tool

Shorter swing; quick, strong hands; plus-plus bat speed; ability to pull hands inside of baseball; arm swinger; head of bat gets way out in front of ball; drives ball when squared up; loud and hard contact off the bat; yank in swing; follow through causes hands to roll early; swings over the top of offerings away; doesn’t presently adjust well to path of ball; does not get cheated with swing.

Grade: Present 35/Future 50

Power

Possesses plus-to-better raw power in batting practice; easily drives ball out in BP; presently an upper body hitter; high in-game power potential if learns to use lower body; will crush mistakes on inner half; capable of lifting ball to all fields, but game power currently pull-side; scratching the surface of tapping into strength.

Grade: Present 45/Future 65

Glove

Played both catcher and first base; raw receiver behind the dish; stiff at times with glove; target will drift; quick feet, but rough footwork; body to smother balls in the dirt; in the early stages of learning how to focus defensively and slow the game down; will rush; agile; tools to make solid progress as experience level builds

Grade: Present 35/Future 55

Arm

Plus-plus raw strength; slow, long release; can struggle with grip; gets tangled coming out of crouch; shows better throws between innings, pointing toward need to slow the game down.

Grade: Present 60/Future 70

Other

Extremely aggressive approach; free swinger; raw pitch selection; dead fastball hitter; presently struggles with breaking stuff, often getting caught in between or fishing down/away; athletic enough to move off the catching position if things don’t come together; swing did not cover enough of the plate; type of player who can make big strides when experience catches up to talent; even demeanor.

Baserunning/Speed

Runs well for catcher; accelerates on the bases; gets out of the box well; will slow down as ages.

Grade: Present 50/Future 40

Overall

Alfaro was hit or miss in this scouting opportunity, but there were flashes that suggest with experience and sustained development the payoff can be a power hitting fifth–spot hitter. The catcher’s power mainly showed during batting practice, but there were some well hit balls in game action that really exploded off the bat. The over-arching theme from this take was the need to tone down the approach at the plate. Alfaro rarely gets cheated with his swing, and is up at the plate hacking. This worked a few times when opposing pitchers made mistakes with their fastballs on the inner half of the plate, but the young hitter was caught lunging and coming up empty against fringy breaking balls. There’s a lot of work to go with keeping his weight back and picking up spin quicker.

I didn’t love the messy nature of Alfaro’s swing during this series, often yanking the bat head through the zone and over-swinging with his arms, but when the swing came together there were clues of what the player can potentially do. Due to the maintenance and aggressive nature shown, Alfaro may always be a streaky player and post fluctuating batting averages in the .245-.260 range if he reaches the majors. The peaks can be highly productive, while the valleys limiting due to a lack of projected on-base ability. One constant can be Alfaro’s home run power, which with improved technique using his lower half consistently can lead to outputs of around 25 home runs, and maybe a season of more.

This is a player with a ton of risk due to the unrefined nature of his overall game and gaps in key aspects. A hitter like Alfaro will have to prove that he can be selective enough against rising competition. The flameout potential is magnified, but if he learns to stay within himself and play to his strengths, the bat can take off.

OFP: High 6; first-division regular/occasional All-Star

Risk Factor: Extreme

***

Courtney Hawkins

OF

Chicago White Sox

DOB 11/12/1993

Height 6’3’’

Bats R

MLB ETA 2017

Weight 220

Throws R

Current Team: Winston-Salem Dash

Date(s) Seen 6/4/2013-6/6/2013

Filed by/Date: Chris Mellen, 6/8/2013

How Acquired: First Round, 2012

Have Video? No

Physical/Health

Well filled-out body; built like a running back; powerful quads/lower body; proportionate body; high strength level; not much more projected physical development; potential for body to stiffen up and lose athleticism without maintenance; shorter arms, with strong forearms and wrists.

Hit Tool

Compact swing; shorter arms allow for ability to quickly pull hands inside of baseball; wrists and forearms generate above average bat speed; can turn around velocity; lift and leverage in swing; swing can get wild leading to high swing-and-miss; designed to get head of bat in front of ball; lacks present coverage on outer third; distinct sound off the bat; produces backspin/drive when he squares offering up; raw approach/pitch recognition suppress true contact consistency; will open hips early and over-rotate.

Grade: Present 30/Future 50

Power

Excellent strength; incorporates lower body to tap into entire body; well above average raw; can launch ball with arc and carry in game action; ability to make pitchers pay for mistakes; presently all pull-side power; strength to hit home runs to all fields, but unsure swing design allows for consistency in doing so; will play in any ballpark.

Grade: Present 50/Future 60

Glove

Inconsistent anticipating ball off bat in center field; can get caught flat-footed; moves well to his right, but twists and turns when moving left; average range; takes some time to accelerate, but shows closing speed; can drift and fail to get feet in proper position, especially against higher flies when going back on ball; charges ball well; profiles as a corner outfielder in higher levels;

Grade: Present 40/Future 55 (as corner outfielder)

Arm

Loads up when throwing; will get body behind ball; throws on a line; potential for added restriction if upper body gets too bulky into mid-twenties; ability to play in right field; hits cut-off man; base accuracy currently unclear as did not see him challenged.

Grade: Present 55/Future 60

Other

Raw with picking up spin out of opposing pitchers’ hands; lunges out onto front foot against breaking balls; has trouble consistently waiting back on the ball; does see softer stuff, especially offerings starting middle and breaking away; pull approach at the plate; did not see him use opposite field; does not work counts and struggles deeper in sequences, especially with two strikes; excels against fastballs on inner half; drives offerings extremely well in spot and generates power there; even keeled player; ability to adjust a question; does not alter swing in counts or seem to have a plan of attack other than letting loose with each swing; flashes potential; needs ample development time; may appear to suddenly “click” due to age advancement and experience gap.

Baserunning/Speed

4.31-4.35 (running hard) timed down line out of box; slower getting started due to swing taking body towards third base; accelerates on the turn at first well and shows full speed between first/second; never likely to be a burner out of the box; potential to lose a step as body stiffens.

Grade: Present 50/Future 50

Overall

Hawkins possesses the talent to continue to track up the ranks and profile as a major league regular, but the present overall game is on the rough side. The outfielder is weak with his pitch recognition and extremely aggressive when in the batters box. His approach is also dead set on pulling the ball, which Hawkins can do with authority, but there is considerable work in front of the player if he is to evolve into the type of hitter who can handle high quality arms. Currently, his holes are easy to exploit, and once the plate appearance moves deeper, he goes into “chase mode.” The future development of the hit tool is a big question.

I was impressed with Hawkins’ raw power and liked his shorter swing at the plate. The player can drive the ball with lift and carry, while showing the ability to turn around high velocity on the inner half. Looking at the whole offensive picture, there’s a skill set that can grow into a right fielder who can post .270s with 25 home runs in the peak, but there is a big present gap for where his secondary skills need to get to and very high risk. This is a player that needs time to marinate while logging professional at-bats, and may not look pretty doing so for the near future, but can stride forward as the experience starts to catch up in two seasons or so.

OFP: 6; first-division regular

Risk Factor: High

***

Nick Williams

OF

Texas Rangers

DOB 9/8/1993

Height 6’3’’

Bats L

MLB ETA 2016

Weight 195

Throws L

Current Team: Hickory Crawdads

Date(s) Seen 6/7/2013-6/9/2013

Filed by/Date: Chris Mellen 6/10/2013

How Acquired: Second round, 2012

Have Video? No

Physical/Health

Wiry body; frame to fill into; lean muscle; athletic; low maintenance body; sneaky strength; body that can handle rigors of long season as weight is added into early-to-mid-20s.

Hit Tool

Easy, fluid stroke; generates plus bat speed; explosive hands; drives hands through hitting zone and then extends; swing covers entire plate; can pull hands in and stay inside to go out for ball on outer half; ability to adjust to path of the ball; swings stays in zone – can wait back long on offerings; shows knack for barreling ball up; contact is loud and hard; drives ball to all fields with backspin; gets head of the bat on offerings in all four quadrants of strike zone; excellent hand-to-eye coordination; innate hitting ability.

Grade: Present 50/Future 60

Power

Not a huge present raw guy; produces power via bat speed and back spin; swing shows upward plane through hitting zone; in the early stages of creating lift with swing; generates post-contact extension; added strength will help future home run output; pull-side power projection, with ability to occasionally reach seats the other way.

Grade: Present 45/Future 55

Glove

Average reads at the crack of the bat; doesn’t possess an explosive first step; average range; makes the routine plays hit out his way; left field projection; won’t hurt team in the field; at times gets feet tangled when going back on ball and drifts.

Grade: Present 40/Future 50

Arm

Longer release; throws lose steam on way into infield; average accuracy; limited to left field; won’t be feared, but also won’t be taken advantage of.

Grade: Present 40/Future 45

Other

Aggressive approach; pitch selection is currently unchallenged at the level due to ability to get barrel on so many offerings; will expand zone up and down; likes to chase high fastballs; more advanced arms will test patience; shows understanding of how to hit to all fields; eyes cover the entire plate; plays the game hard and with enthusiasm; approaches practice sessions with a purpose.

Baserunning/Speed

4.23-4.26 down the line digging for hit/avoiding double play; kicks it into higher gear running first to third; doesn’t presently read pitchers well; often took step back to first base during motion.

Grade: Present 55/Future 50

Overall

Williams’ natural hitting ability quickly shows during both batting practice and in game action. The 19-year-old left-handed hitter possesses excellent hands, and knows how to use them. The swing covers both sides of the plate, generating solid leverage for producing backspin when offerings are squared up. In this series, just about every ball Williams hit was hard, loud, and came off his bat with authority. The lefty showed a sweet spot from the right-center field gap to the left-center field gap, with the mindset to take what was given to him and use the whole field. The ball-to-sweet spot of the barrel contact was also very impressive. There’s hitting ability that just can’t be taught.

Williams’ swing stays in the zone and allows him to wait back against offerings, while also giving him a chance to adjust to the path of the pitch. I can see the hitter being able to hit .300 in the major leagues during a peak season or two as he continued to develop, with the potential to consistently post averages in the .275-.295 range at full utility. One area to watch is the development of Williams’ pitch selection. Presently, he’s unchallenged at the level to work counts due to his advanced ability. It isn’t that the left-handed hitter is unwilling to be patient, but he isn’t often tested to do so as when he gets his pitch, he rips it. Williams will need to demonstrate he can pick out good offerings to handle as he gets to the next level and beyond.

Though profiling as a left fielder, Williams’ hitting talent can carry him to the role of a major-league regular. Given that the young hitter shows a knack for squaring balls up and has the bat speed, there’s the potential for 15-18 home runs as he continues to mature and learn his strike zone. Williams was by far the most polished hitter on the field, and should be able to make a relatively smooth adjustment to the next level when he takes the next step up the ranks

OFP: 6; first-division regular

Risk Factor: High

***


Jose Ramirez

RHP

New York Yankees

DOB

1/21/90

Height

6’3

Bats

R

MLB ETA

2014

Weight

190

Throws

R

Current Team

Trenton (Double-A)

Date Seen

5/12/13

Filed by/Date

Zach Mortimer, 6/3/13

Acquired

International Free Agent signed June, 10th 2007.

Have Video?

No

Mechanics

Low ¾; 1B side; falls off hard to 1B side; struggles to repeat; high effort; spins out of delivery.

#1 Pitch

Four Seam Fastball: 95-96; Command: fringe-average; Movement: plus late run and sink. Notes: late explosion.

Grade: 70/70

#2 Pitch

Slider: 85-89; Command: average; Movement: sharp short break with tilt. Notes: tendency to overthrow.

Grade: 55/55

#3 Pitch

Changeup: 83-85; Command: solid-average; Movement: power fade. Notes: plays well off of fastball, put away pitch.

Grade: 60/70

Other

Fast arm, injury history, loose command, goes to changeup for strikeouts, fastball thrown more effectively to arm side, lacks confidence in slider, will get under fastball and changeup.

Overall

Strengths: plus-plus changeup; plus-plus fastball; fast arm; aggressive demeanor on mound; slider will be at least usable third offering.

Weakness: loose command profile; high effort in delivery; inconsistent results; fringy pitchability.

Overall, Ramirez has two plus-plus potential offerings. However, the limited command and effort in delivery will ultimately land him in a high leverage relief role.

OFP: 60; first-division closer

Risk Factor: Moderate

***

Sam Selman

LHP

Kansas City Royals

DOB

11/14/90

Height

6’3

Bats

L

MLB ETA

2015

Weight

165

Throws

L

Current Team

Wilmington (High-A)

Date Seen

5/8 and 5/31

Filed by/Date

Zach Mortimer 6/4/13

Acquired

Drafted 2nd round; 66th overall; Kansas City Royals 2012

Have Video?

No

Mechanics

¾; high front side; arm stroke can get off line at the back; cuts off delivery; inconsistent line to the plate; deceptive; requires effort.

#1 Pitch

Four-seam fastball: 90-93(T97); command: well below average; movement: late explosion, will show cutting action at lower velocity; mechanical flaws do not allow for consistent command and velocity.

Grade: 65/65 will play down due to lack of command

#2 Pitch

Slider: 82-85; command: throws to glove side, will occasionally overthrow; movement: slurvey, sharper break at higher velocities.

Grade: 50/55

#3 Pitch

Curveball: 76-78; command: fringe-average; movement: 12-to-6 break; Notes: arm-speed reduction, raises arm slot, and lacks confidence throwing it.

Grade: 35/40

#4 Pitch

Changeup: 83-85: Command: frequently leaves elevated over the middle of the plate; movement: minimal movement, able to maintain arm speed. Uses sparingly

Grade: 35/40

Overall

Strengths: Long levers; delivery creates deception; fastball velocity; slider shows bite with depth.

Weaknesses: Inability to repeat delivery; fastball command is well below average; lacks deep arsenal.

Overall, Selman shows major-league stuff (fastball/slider), but his inability to repeat delivery causes command and velocity to waiver. His best usage will be out of the bullpen, but his command will need to improve to reach the majors.

OFP: 50; seventh-inning reliever.

Risk Factor High

***

Gregory Polanco

OF

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB 09/14/1991

Height 6’4”

Bats L

MLB ETA 2015

Weight 170

Throws L

Current Team: Bradenton

Date(s) Seen 05/19/2013, 05/23/2013, 06/03/2013-06/04/2013

Filed by/Date: Chris King 06/11/2013

How Acquired: Non-Drafted FA 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates

Have Video? No

Physical/Health

Very projectable body; long and lanky right now; has room to add weight; very athletic with strong legs; his frame projects to hold up through 162-game seasons.

Hit Tool

Above average approach at the plate; has a good idea of the strike zone and recognizes off-speed stuff well; his long arms allow good plate coverage; quick hands; swing gets long at times causing him to be late on pitches up in the zone; noted improvement from spring on keeping his head quiet and shortening his stride; will lunge at times on off-speed pitches on the outer half; uses his long arms to generate leverage without much of an uppercut. Grade: Present 45/Future 60

Power

Natural leverage generates power to all fields; most home run power comes from pulling the ball, but still has enough strength to hit it out to opposite field; as he matures and adds muscle he won’t have to pull as much to produce home runs; it’s evident the power side of his game is still growing. Grade: Present 45/Future 55

Glove

Another area where he has made major improvements; much better at properly aligning himself pre-pitch and getting better reads off the bat; still working on taking better routes to the ball; plus range and moves around well in CF; able to track down gap shots to either side; has the ability to stay in center as he advances. Grade: Present 50/Future 65

Arm

Not flashy but above average; very accurate from all fields; maintained his accuracy and release after quick transfers; showed the ability to throw on a line while moving away from his target; consistently able to hit the cutoff. Grade: Present: 55/Future 60

Other

Baserunning and route running are the two areas he needs to improve on the most; he’s so athletic that it hides some natural weaknesses; has shown the ability and desire to be coached up and the improvements are noticeable; has fun playing the game.

Baserunning/Speed

Plus speed in the field and on base; needs work on reading the pitchers move and picking his spots to run; has long strides and gets to top speed quickly; should be a lock for 20 steals; maturing body shouldn’t have a major impact either way so expect him to maintain where he’s at now. Grade: Present 60/ Future 60

Overall

I first saw him play in the GCL and the strides he’s made really stand out. He still has some raw parts to his game, but things are starting to come together for him. The tools are there for Polanco to continue to produce as he advances through the ranks. I really like how his defense has caught up to his offense. For the first time in a couple of years I can see him staying in CF as long as he continues to work, but a move to a corner isn’t out of the question. Offensively, he stills shows vulnerability to outside off-speed pitches from righties, especially down in the zone. I’d like to see more AB’s against left-handed pitching, but he did a decent job staying in and not bail out when lefties pitched him inside.

From what I’ve heard and have seen myself Polanco is a great teammate and enjoys coming to the park every day. There is still a lot risk with his development, but as he continues to mature and receives instruction it’s realistic to see him as an everyday big leaguer able to play any of the three outfield positions.

OFP: 6; first-division regular

Risk Factor: High

***


Sean Nolin

LHP

Toronto Blue Jays

DOB

12/26/89

Height

6’5

Bats

L

MLB ETA

2013

Weight

235

Throws

L

Current Team

New Hampshire (Double-A)

Date Seen

5/12/13

Filed by/Date

Zach Mortimer 5/22/13

Acquired

Drafted 6th Round; 186th overall; Toronto Blue Jays 2010

Have Video?

No

Mechanics

High 3/4 ; 3B side; fluid; easy arm action; maintains solid balance; good posture; maintains solid line to the plate.

#1 Pitch

Four-seam fastball: 88-91; Command: plus, able to spot low and away to both sides of the plate; Movement: average armside run. Notes: plus command compensates for lack of velocity.

Grade: 55/55

#2 Pitch

Curveball: 73-75; Command: solid-average; Movement: big break, depth. Will throw early in the count for a strike.

Grade: 50/50

#3 Pitch

Changeup: 78-81; Command: solid-average; Movement: solid-average arm-side fade and sink. Notes: consistent arm speed, will throw in any count.

Grade: 55/55

#4 Pitch

Cutter/Slider: 84-87; command: solid-average: Movement: sharp late bite, horizontal break. Plays well off fastball, used to induce weak contact.

Grade: 50/50

Overall

Strengths: big strong frame; repeats delivery; command of all pitches; changeup will miss bats; plus pitchability.

Weakness: lacks plus secondary offering; limited ceiling; fastball velocity is average.

Overall, Nolin is the prototypical back of the rotation starter. He relies on commanding his fastball and creating weak contact with his secondary offerings. Nolin repeats his delivery well and has a frame conducive for eating innings.

OFP: 55; no. 4 starter

Risk Factor: Low

***

Henry Owens

LHP

Team: Boston Red Sox

DOB

7/21/1992

Height

6’7’’

Bats

L

MLB ETA

2016

Weight

200

Throws

L

Current Team

High-A Salem Red Sox

Date Seen

6/5/2013

Filed by/date

Chris Mellen; 6/6/2013

Acquired

Supplemental First Round, 2011

Have Video?

No

Mechanics

¾ arm slot; easy, low energy-expending delivery; even paced; long- evered; frame to generate downward leverage; inconsistent using body to his advantage; lands square to home plate; soft landing; at times pulls head off target; head pulls towards first base during middle of motion; arm-side shoulder pulls open early at times causing early release of ball and cross fire; loose body; motion and delivery to maintain stuff deep into outings.

#1 Pitch

Fastball, Velocity: 89-93, Top 93. Command: below average. Movement: arm-side run in lower tier of velocity band; downward finish and arm-side run when between knees/thighs; flat when at belt or above. Notes: failed to consistently spot pitch on either side of plate; missed often high and to the arm-side; did not throw enough strikes; pitch deceptive out of delivery; generated late swings; easy out of the hand; tended to overthrow when trying to spot inside; did not get hurt with pitch, but both command/control below average in outing.

Grade: Present 50/Future 60

#2 Pitch

Changeup, Velocity: 77-81. Command: fringe-average. Movement: arm-side fade when thrown arm-side; Drop and arm-side fade when thrown to the glove side. Best pitch of the outing; hitters fooled by arm speed; missed bats; improved arm speed and deception; uses size to stay above the ball when delivering; will need to improve command and ability to throw for strikes against more advanced hitters; majority tended to be further out of the strike zone that hitters chased; potential MLB out pitch.

Grade: Present 55/Future 65

#3 Pitch

Curveball, Velocity: 71-75. Command: average. Movement: big, slow bend, with deep break; 11-to-5 breaker. Notes: used sparingly in outing and as third pitch; showed ability to throw offering for strikes; slower break allows hitters to wait back on the ball; stayed on top of pitch throughout outing; could stand to throw harder, but offering has been tightening up; changes eye level of batters; can stand to miss more bats; shows feel for pitch; creates solid snap.

Grade: Present 50/Future 60

Other

Relaxed on mound; kept an even pace; 1.37-1.47 out of the stretch to home; deceptive point release out of delivery; held stuff for five innings; went deep in a lot of counts; above average pickoff move; did not change approach with men on base; tended to waiver between over-throwing fastball and releasing early; was not hit hard in outing, but results masked overall struggle controlling stuff.

Overall

Fastball/changeup dominated outing; only three or four balls put solidly into play; all solid contact was against fastball when above the top of the thighs and in the middle of the plate; failed to spot fastball to either side of the plate; did not get many called strikes and struggled to reel pitch in; heater showed flashes at times of how effective it can when spotted; changeup kept hitters off-balance and out in front; pitch bailed him out of trouble; trust to throw at any point in the count; curveball was effective early, but pocketed pitch from third inning on.

Overall, project Owens as a fourth/fifth starter, with a third-starter ceiling. The pitcher has made strides since last season, but does tend to repeat mistakes. Owens is currently inconsistent repeating delivery when throwing his fastball. The offering has solid life and movement when thrown in the lower tier of the strike zone, but he struggled keeping his arm above the baseball in the outing. This has been a similar trend I have seen with Owens since he signed as a professional. As the hitters become more advanced, the left-hander will have to throw more strikes with his heater, especially early in sequences. The pitcher has both the size and frame to generate considerable downward leverage. This is Owens’ main development aspect, for me, going forward. There can be growth with both his command and control if he can get more consistent finishing the delivery. Owens’ changeup has made strides and is rounding into a legit out pitch. The arm speed is becoming more in sync with that of his fastball and it showed with the opposing hitters being so far out in front. However, many were so far away from the zone that I would question how many of those more polished hitters will chase in the next level and beyond. Owens also is in need of adding more strength. Both his stamina and his sitting fastball velocity can benefit from filling into his frame as he reaches his mid-20s. The pitcher has the overall package to reach, and stick, in the majors as a starting pitcher. It should come down to how consistent the lefty can become with his delivery, which should further enhance the overall repertoire.

OFP: 6; no. 3 starter

Risk Factor: High

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