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February 15, 2013
Prospects Will Break Your Heart
Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects
by Jason Parks
State of the Farm: “Two of us wearing raincoats, standing solo in the sun. You and me chasing paper, getting nowhere. We're on our way home. We're on our way home.”
Prospect rankings primer
The Top Ten
- RHP Dylan Bundy
- RHP Kevin Gausman
- IF Jonathan Schoop
- LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
- RHP Mike Wright
- IF Nick Delmonico
- OF L.J. Hoes
- RHP Branden Kline
- SS Adrian Marin
- LHP Josh Hader
1. Dylan Bundy
Position: RHP
DOB: 11/15/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, Owasso High School (Owasso, OK)
2012 Stats: 0.00 ERA (30 IP, 5 H, 40 K, 2 BB) at Low-A Delmarva; 2.84 ERA (57 IP, 48 H, 66 K, 18 BB) at High-A Frederick; 3.24 ERA (16.2 IP, 14 H, 13 K, 8 BB) at Double-A Bowie; 0.00 ERA (1.2 IP, 1 H, O K, 1 BB) at major-league level
The Tools: 7+ FB; 6+ potential CB; 6 potential CH; 8 potential CT/SL
What Happened in 2012: After signing, Bundy did things to Low-A hitters that would make the hardest of prisoners weep like school children.
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45 comments have been left for this article. 
Surprise Me!
Gausman over Machado....please elaborate (absolutely love the work, just thought this might deserve a whole page to itself..)
Yes, that jumped out at me, too....
Machado's bat at third base less impactful than shortstop and, even if Hardy were elsewhere, I'm not fully sold on Machado as a shortstop long term. Gausman was, for me, the top talent in the draft last year and is a potential front-ender with high floor. I do not take issue with any arrangement of the top three on the list, but right now Gausman is a better overall talent than Machado for me. Potential for three plus or better offerings (and maybe two plus-plus), great body, creates angles, good presence and big makeup.
Thanks (& double thanks for responding on Twitter) I guess the hesitation of up the middle future & being admittedly bold on Gausman kinda solves that. I do love Gausman's mechanics (leg lift & hip torque as a result, plus GREAT plane on FB) but that is all YouTube scouting as I'm out here in SoCal...just the business wide love for Machado & him holding his own last year made me feel the Gausman ranking was aggressive, but I love that you trust your eyes...really appreciate it once again - you guys are churning out great work as a staff.
Much appreciated! Ultimately, it's a matter of taste as to how you come down on Machado/Bundy/Gausman. All three are potential All-Stars and it would not be a shock to see any of the three wind up with the most productive ML career.
Fair enough...the final hours of my graveyard shift can't get better than this
wowzer. that was a shock to me too. what about zimmer v gausman and zimmer v machado? are you just that high on gausman or is it the difference between machado having an all world bat at short and avg to above avg at 3rd?
For me, Gausman over Zimmer. Gausman was, in my mind, the top talent in the draft last year. I'm less bullish on Zimmer than was much of the BP Prospect Team, so I'd probably slot Machado ahead of him.
I see Machado's calm and natural demeanor working against him in the prospect world. He's 3 mo older than Harper and was having a better projected season until Harper went nuts in September we all know what September stats can mean.
No, Machado is not Harper, but he is going to open some eye's when he's legally able to drink.
Harper is violent, Machado is short compact swing that gets full extension with easy oppo power. He hit a SL, CB and FB for HRs learning a new position in a pennant race.
I hope Gausmen is better than Machado, but I just cannot wait until Machado starts peppering the AL East with 380 ft. LDs.
I don't really even understand why this needs to be elaborated on. What about Machado has superstar potential? He is already moved off of SS... he has never shown plus power, hit tool or speed. He WAS a top draft pick - if that makes you a superstar then that's fine... but as far as actual skills, Machado is no superstar. Maybe he will be someday - but the chance is not much greater than any other prospect with MLB level tools.
If we are going to go crazy with projection, then we may as well just pick the guy with less experience. In which case we should go with Gausman. Machado overachieved in his callup with his insane start and strong finish. Even with those numbers, he was nothing special. At least Gausman has the chance to light the world on fire. Machado had already and a few chances and he never will. He doesn't have that kind of talent. I don't believe in Gausman, but at least there is a chance that he could be MVP-caliber if for no reason other than this will be his first full season.
Machado has a much better chance of being a superstar than most prospects because he does in fact have plus (to plus-plus) tools. He was playing at the major league level as a 20-year-old. That's very special.
He wasn't just playing as a 20 year old (and in a baseball sense, he was technically a 19 year old, as his birthday was 7/6/92), he was hitting the ball hard as a 20 year old. He slugged .445 with a .183 ISO. The only other 20 year old third basemen with at least 200 PA to have a .445 SLG were Jimmie Foxx, Bob Horner, and Eddie Matthews (Rogers Hornsby was at .444). They were also the only 3B to have an ISO over .160. If you want to expand the list to include shortstops, you can add ARod to the list.
People have to stop looking at 19 and 20 year-olds like they're the same as 22 and 23 year-olds. They're not.
Good points, but if we are going to hang rate stats as a potential measures for future promise we have to also note the number of plate appearances over which those players compiled their rate stats:
Foxx - 473
Horner - 359
Matthews - 593
Machado - 202
Hornsby - 550
Horner is closest to Machado and still had 75% more PAs than Manny. I watched a lot of Manny, and there was a lot to be excited about. But the analysis you're using is potentially misleading. The sample size is small enough that simply removing his first four games drops his SLG to .383. Now, I'm not a proponent of carving out slices of games to prove an argument one way or another, but the sample size should be large enough that 4 games don't affect the statistic of measure by 60 bips.
Manny is a supremely talented young player, but there are legit areas to work on and I think it may be counter productive to start laying him next to Hall of Famers after 202 plate appearances.
Fair enough. But in all honesty, I did cheat a bit on those comparables. In baseball terms, Machado was 19 last year. Since his birthday was only five days from the cutoff, since all his AB occurred after his 20th birthday, and since there were no useful comparables at 19, I compared him to 20 year-olds. Foxx and Mathews were 9 months older than him, Horner and ARod were 11 - that's a big difference at that age, just ask Mike Trout. Interestingly, ARod had 149 PA at 19, in almost an exact age parallel to Machado, hitting .232 and slugging .403 (.171 ISO).
My post was part of thread started by huztlers, who said Machado's performance was "nothing special"; Jason pointed out, rightly, that just playing in the majors at 20 is special, and I pointed out that, historically speaking, his performance was special. I'll stand by that. As a bonus, he did this while switching positions at the major league level. I'm not saying he's going to be ARod or Mathews, or even a run of the mill Hall of Famer - way too early to say that. Just that he's demonstrated, at the highest level, rare talents.
I don't disagree -- it is certainly special that he came up and held his own at such a young age. It should be fun to see him at the MLB level for a full season this summer, for sure.
He did not earn the opportunity. It was handed to him. Big difference.
He didn't have plus-plus tools when he was drafted. Nor has he made much progress with any of them. People have completely lost sight of what he is.