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December 13, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “When I hold you in my arms (oh, yeah). And I feel my finger on your trigger (oh, yeah). I know nobody can do me no harm (oh, yeah). Because, (happiness) is a warm gun, mama (bang bang shoot shoot).”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Travis d'Arnaud
Position: C
DOB: 02/10/1989
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1^st round, 2007 draft (Phillies), Lakewood High School (Lakewood, CA)
2012 Stats: .333/.380/.595 at Triple-A Las Vegas (67 games)
The Tools: 5 hit; 6 power potential; 6 arm; 5+ glove

What Happened in 2012: A knee injury ended his season before he could climb to the majors, but the 23-year-old backstop is ready to take his turn on the biggest stage.

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42 comments have been left for this article.

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JeffRose

Great article, a couple of new names I hadn't heard of. Where would Rasmus and Arencibia fit in the under-25 list if they weren't, you know, 26? :)

Dec 13, 2012 02:41 AM

rating: 0

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

Arencibia wouldn't have made my U25 list. Rasmus is an interesting one; I'd put him at #5. I still believe in the tools.

Dec 13, 2012 18:48 PM

BobcatBaseball

I see you still have Kyle Drabek on your Top Under-25 list, what do you expect from him coming off his second Tommy John Surgery?

Dec 13, 2012 06:30 AM

rating: 1

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

Drabek's enormously talented. That said, command is usually the last thing to come back after TJ and this isn't his first surgery. Assuming the velocity comes back, it's still going to be a long road to reaching the ceiling that made him (at the time) the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade.

Dec 13, 2012 18:51 PM

TheArtfulDodger

Just a heads up - the third to last paragraph (first under top 10 talents under 25) lists Henderson Alvarez twice. Great article, love the work.

Dec 13, 2012 07:40 AM

rating: 0

bheikoop

Is there another system that is even close to this? Even with graduations and some under-performances, this system is unreal!

Dec 13, 2012 07:41 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Very impressive system. Top tier despite the trades. Not sure of their ultimate rank yet, but they will be in the discussion for top system.

Dec 13, 2012 07:46 AM

Taldan9

Who on this list is going to the Mets for R. A. Dickey? Surely one of Syndegard /Sanchez? And just how does Dickey pitch without that ligament, anyway?

Dec 13, 2012 07:47 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I highly doubt that Sanchez/Syndergaard get traded, much less for Dickey. They are well on their way to elite status in the prospect world.

Dec 13, 2012 07:51 AM

apaterson

Do you think Arencibia + Nolin would be enough?

Dec 13, 2012 08:00 AM

rating: 1

jpaternostro

Mets need a catcher, but Arencibia isn't really all that good. Best guess would be Gose and another close to MLB-ready prospect. Nolin fits, and the Mets have no left-handed starting pitching either.

Dec 13, 2012 09:10 AM

rating: -1

achaik

What's the status on Adonis Cardona? Too far away from the bigs?

Dec 13, 2012 07:50 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Secondary stuff has a long way to go.

Dec 13, 2012 09:34 AM

handyarrow

Great. How am I supposed to get any work done today when I can't get up from my desk for fear of embarrassment?

Dec 13, 2012 07:50 AM

rating: 10

LowDraw67

Interesting list. Just wondering where you would have placed Justin Nicolino on this list? Behind Syndergaard and Sanchez?

Dec 13, 2012 07:59 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yes. Top 100 prospect, but not in the same tier as Sanchez/Syndergaard

Dec 13, 2012 08:04 AM

SC

That picture of Marcus Stroman is an easy 6. Needed lasers in the background to grade higher.

Unrelated, "body red flags" needs to enter the pickup artist lexicon.

Dec 13, 2012 08:17 AM

rating: 7

canada

I think "body red flags" are non-existent in the PUA lexicon actually. They'll go 20-80, it's all good.

Dec 13, 2012 11:38 AM

rating: 1

prs130

With a picture like that, I'll definitely keep an eye on Stroman... Even if he doesn't work out at Relief Pitcher, my fantasy league has a Prom King slot.

Parks, let's get some more non-baseball pictures while we're at it. I want to see Matt Smoral in a party hat, Roberto Osuna in a clown suit, etc.

Dec 17, 2012 09:23 AM

rating: 0

tphuang

Looks like 3 jays in the top 101?

Dec 13, 2012 08:52 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

At least....

Dec 13, 2012 08:58 AM

Klochner

When you refer to a pitching prospect as "high ceiling" how does that correspond to rotation numbers? Is major league average considered a high ceiling? Is a #3 ceiling a high ceiling or is that phrase reserved for potential #2s and top of the rotation guys only?

Dec 13, 2012 09:20 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

While a number three starter should be considered a high ceiling, that term is usually reserved for the tier above that, players that profile near the top of a rotation (1/2).

Dec 13, 2012 09:23 AM

LowDraw67

Jason, any thoughts on Anthony Alford? Lots of raw tools, perhaps one of the best athletes in the Jays system. If he chooses baseball over football, which might happen given recent events, where would you rank him? Top 20?

Dec 13, 2012 09:45 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I'm cautious of players that turn their full attention to baseball at this stage of the game. I think it puts them behind the developmental curve, and if baseball instincts aren't already present, they are unlikely to arrive. I love toolsy athletes, but without a feel for the game, they are long shots to develop.

Dec 13, 2012 09:51 AM

nschneider

Alford just got released by his university football program (http://blog.gulflive.com/mississippi-press-sports/2012/12/report_anthony_alford_released.html), so choosing baseball over football just got more likely.

Dec 13, 2012 10:19 AM

rating: 4

cordially

Is your listing of Stroman as a reliever based on info that's come out that I missed? I.e. has AA has definitely said he won't start?

Dec 13, 2012 10:23 AM

rating: 0

shantzy11

I believe Stroman has always been a pen arm and was drafted as such. He would have been up with the team last September if not for his suspension. The explosiveness here screams late inning relief.

Dec 13, 2012 12:56 PM

rating: 0

Sam Rothstein

He was used exclusively as a reliever during his A and AA ball stints after signing, averaging just over an inning per appearance (15 games).

Dec 13, 2012 13:49 PM

rating: 0

Rage of Snider

That probably has a lot more to do with managing his workload after he pitched for Duke than it does wiith signaling what the Jays long term plan for him is. Wacha was used in the same way I believe. Maybe the pen is the most likely destination for Stroman, but I don't see why the Jays wouldn't give him an opportunity to start first

Dec 13, 2012 18:01 PM

rating: 0

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

The Jays used Stroman exclusively as a reliever after he signed. Having scouted him as an amateur I thought he'd be just fine as a starter, but you could see the concerns. He struggled to hold velocity (when I saw him), but another organization may have tried to develop him as a starter. The stuff was enough to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm, IMO.

By the way, people are going to love Stroman when he's in the big leagues. His energy on the mound made him a lot of fun to scout.

Dec 13, 2012 19:13 PM

Jason Parks

BP staff

Let's name all the sub 5'9'' right-handed starters with fringe changeups who had success in the majors. I'll start.....

Dec 13, 2012 19:54 PM

Chris Mellen

BP staff

I'm drawing a blank.

Dec 14, 2012 06:00 AM

ahemmer

Is there any concern about the lack of hitting talent in the top 10?

Dec 13, 2012 11:33 AM

rating: 0

adrock

If you look at the Jays' roster they're set at 1B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, and C (given D'Arnaud) for at least the next 2 years.

On top of that Rasmus/Gose provide cover/trade bait in CF. The only area of immediate need is DH (assuming Izturis/Bonifacio are a decent stopgap at 2B).

The failure of the lower level position prospects to develop is disappointing, but not as relevant to the current squad. With the young arms they have, if a need arises, they can presumably flip pitching talent for hitting.

Dec 13, 2012 14:16 PM

rating: 1

JoshC77

Why would there be? Their major league lineup is relatively young and is pretty well set. There aren't going to be too many places that a young hitter can step in and play anyways. Pitching is where they need the help and fortunately, is where their farm system is deepest.

Dec 13, 2012 14:16 PM

rating: 0

jwoodfield

Quick question, when you say "Plus FB" or "Plus CH", what does this mean in comparison to the numerical system? Does it just mean that it's still an unknown? That it could be a 6 or a 7 and time will tell?

Dec 13, 2012 14:35 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

2/8 scale:

2: Poor
3: Well below-average
4: Below-average
5: Average
6: Above-average (Plus)
7: Well above-average (Plus-plus)
8: Elite

Dec 13, 2012 14:45 PM

Infrancoeurgible

Now that Stroman smile is Greg Golson-esque. Pure 80.

Dec 13, 2012 18:48 PM

rating: 1

R.A.Wagman

Great, great write-up.
Two lower level position player prospects of whom much was expected last season, Chris Hawkins and Jacob Anderson, both disappointed. Of the two, which do you (any of you prospect hounds) believe still has it in him to rise above and reclaim his previous prospect status.
Also, whither AJ Jimenez? Without the injury, would he have cracked the top-10?

Dec 13, 2012 19:31 PM

rating: 0

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

I saw Chris Hawkins take BP last few days not impressed with the bat. I would not imagine he cracks the top 10 again. I have not seen Jake Anderson or AJ Jimenez play yet. Scouts rave about Jimenez's defense, but I believe he's slides into more of a backup catcher profile.

Mar 09, 2013 11:07 AM

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

I saw Chris Hawkins take BP last few days not impressed with the bat. I would not imagine he cracks the top 10 again. I have not seen Jake Anderson or AJ Jimenez play yet. Scouts rave about Jimenez's defense, but I believe he's slides into more of a backup catcher profile.

Mar 09, 2013 11:06 AM

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Prospects Will Break Y... (12/10)

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