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November 14, 2012

BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 82: The Marlins-Blue Jays Blockbuster

by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

Ben and Sam break down the Marlins-Blue Jays trade from every angle, or at least all the angles that occurred to them at the time.

Episode 82: "The Marlins-Blue Jays Blockbuster"

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Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

Related Content:  Trade,  Marlins,  Blue Jays,  Blockbuster

5 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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maxjusttyped

Buehrle was worth roughly 46 wins during his tenure with the White Sox. He only spent one year in Miami, and it's not like his skills disappeared. Sounds to me like you guys are underrating him a bit.

Nov 13, 2012 22:52 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I blame Sam for saying he'd have a higher ERA than Henderson Alvarez.

Nov 13, 2012 22:55 PM
 
Michael Bodell
(89)

The Jays lost their full rotation in the summer to injury. At basically the same time stacked. The Jays had 81 W in 2011 and 85 W in 2010.

Looking at players in versus out for just next year (using past 3 year averages for a Q&D meassure):

Reyes 3.7 WARP - Escobar 1.4 WARP = +2.3 WARP
Johnson 2.8 WARP - Alvarez -0.3 WARP = +3.1 WARP
Buehrle 1.8 WARP (replacing 0 or negative warp guys like Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Brett Cecil) = +1.8 WARP
Buck 1.3 WARP - Mathis -.6 WARP = +1.9 WARP

put that together and you get +9.1 WARP in one deal for next year. Note, for depth, they also added JA Happ at the end of the season and Izturis already this off season. They only really had 4 good (>1.5 WARP) guys last season (Encarnacion, Bautista, Lawrie, and Morrow).

I think that is enough of an upgrade, with the rest of the roster, to put them in the 85-90 win range. Maybe not quite enough, but the off season isn't over. Also, maybe that is enough for 2nd WC - or enough to see where you are in July and add if the team seems close.

Nov 14, 2012 02:26 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

I'm changing my opinion to this.

Nov 14, 2012 07:31 AM
 
R.A.Wagman

This is also not fully accounting for the revamped bullpen which did not finish taking shape until around the trade deadline, after the Jays brought in Brad Lincoln and Schoolteacher Steve Delabar and called up Aaron Loup.

Nov 14, 2012 08:04 AM
rating: 0
 
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Overthinking It: The 5... (11/13)
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